Football Picks Against the Spread

What’s up everyone.  We kick off the first Sunday of the NFL this season.  I tend to advise people to not wager too much on the first 3 weeks of football since you never know what’s going to happen.  There will definitely be a few surprises.

It was already crazy week in college football.  I capitalized on Brandon’s picks of Wake Forest and Auburn, but took what I would consider a bad beat on the Michigan game, and ended up short with USC.  ND should have not only won that game, but should have covered, and did cover with 2 minutes left.  Bad penalties, giving up a kickoff return, and a missed FG cost them that one.  In the OSU game, the OSU front 7 stepped up for them and shut down USC’s run.  OSU’s front 7 was their Achilles heel in the Navy game.  USC didn’t really use Joe McKnight until the 2nd half either.  USC also was struggling with starting field position the entire game since they had to start several drives within their own 10 yard line.  That forced them into a lot of punting situations.  If they got to start more drives between the 20-40, I have a feeling they would have put a lot more points on the board.

Today in the NFL, there aren’t really any games that I love.  I do like the Minnesota Vikings over the Browns, but this has trap game written all over it.  It’s like the sports books are begging you to take the Vikings and that’s who the public is riding hard.  A lot of people think the Browns will be returning to their 2007 form when they were 10-6.  I am not one of those people.  They …

UPDATE: For any of you still reading this blog from last year, thanks for continuing to read and I look forward to providing you with some solid analysis and insight for several weeks ahead. I have recently moved to Las Vegas and feel my handicapping has become much more focused and accurate. I have also changed my rating system to a 1 unit or 2 unit scale. This system keeps me much more honest. Basically what I am saying is that it keeps me from giving you a 1 unit play that is more of a lean than a solid play. With this rating system I am forced to only play games that I am very confident about. I will keep a running total throughout the rest of the college year, including juice as well. Good Luck to all and I welcome all comments and feedback.

Stanford at Wake Forest (-3): There are several reasons to play WF on Saturday. First, west coast to east coast traveling teams, including Stanford on Saturday, have really struggled when being asked to play the 12ET game. Remember last year, Maryland upset Cal when Cal was asked to play the 12ET, and that is simply one example. Secondly, as a bettor you need to take a close look at teams that played really well during week 1 and teams that played poorly week 1. Stanford on paper looked like they played really well. Now Stanford is a solid team and getting better with solid coaching, but playing at Washington State is not asking a whole lot. Standford was clearly the better team and they played like it. They will not be able to run and pass the ball with the ease they had …

Question: Which RB do I start or sit in week 1?

Here are my RBs:

Ray Rice vs. KC
Jonathan Stewart vs. PHI
Maurice Jones-Drew vs.  IND
Steve Slaton vs. NYJ

I need to pick two. I was also proposed a trade of Jonathan Stewart and Steve Slaton for Andre Johnson and Ryan Grant. Do you think I should take it?

Answer:

Ray Rice against Kansas City is a sure-fire bet, he’s your starter every week. You also have to go with Maurice Jones-Drew against Indy who is also soft against the run. You have to play your best players. Rice and MJD should be your starters every week regardinless of your matchup. Very nice group or RBs.

Give your answer to this question below!…

Question: Which player should I put in the flex for week 1?

Since Marshawn Lynch is suspended the first three games of the season, I moved Ray Ricce from my FLEX to my RB2. Now I need to decide who to start in the FLEX. Do I go with Felix Jones (vs. TB) or Darren Sproles (vs. OAK). Thanks for your help.

Answer:

You have to go with Felix Jones in the FLEX. It’s not even a question. With his speed, he has the ability to pick up huge chunks of yards and will have a huge role in the Cowboys offense. While Darren Sproles also has the same home run capabilities, Jones should be getting more touches for the Cowboys than Sproles should be getting with the Chargers.

Add your own answer in the comments!…

The new Nike Adrian Peterson commercial is the most ridiculous commercial since the LT/Polamalu commercial.  It’s for Nike’s new line of Pro Combat gear.  I can’t wait to see what commercial is next.

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Clemson vs Georgia Tech (-5)

Simply not convinced Clemson is ready to play this caliber of a team yet. Clemson looked great on the highlight reel last weekend with their win over Middle Tennessee State, but those highlights came primarily from special teams, which helped give them their double digit win. That won’t happen tonight. Clemson did put up 300 plus yards of total offense, but against who, NOBODY, their QB also threw a couple INTs against a very weak defense. While GT also played a nobody last week, they easily moved the ball and their offense looked very solid. Both teams return several starters on both sides of the ball, but I still give the advantage in that category to GT. While I wouldn’t make this your play of the year, I do believe GT has a considerable edge in talent and are just a better team at this point in the early college season.…

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ ATLANTA FALCONS -4.5

Both teams were surprisingly strong last season.  Miami had some struggles on the road.  Falcons have way more offense than Miami.  Both defenses are relatively the same.  Go with the stronger offense at home.  You have to go with the Falcons.

Prediction: Falcons 24 – Dolphins 16

Free Pick: Falcons -4.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS -13

Matt Cassell is doubtful Sunday, which explains the high spread.  The Chiefs could be absolutely dominated by the Ravens defense, but I don’t want to give up 13 to take the Ravens who may just put up 21-24 points and call it a day.  This is a great game to put in a 7-point teaser.

Prediction: Ravens 27 – Chiefs 13

Free Pick: Ravens -13 (Confidence: 2/5)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

This game is a pick ’em and I’m an Eagles fan, so I’ll have to pass on this game.  I’m obviously optimistic this Sunday, but I hate having to open on the road.

DENVER BRONCOS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS -4

These aren’t your 2008 Bengals.  Carson Palmer is looking good and Chad Ochocinco may actually try and play this season.  The Broncos defense is pretty horrible, no more Jay Cutler, and Brandon Marshall is suspended indefinitely.  I like the Bengals at home and so does 96% of the betting public.

Prediction: Bengals 23 – Broncos 13

Free Pick: Bengals -4 (Confidence: 3/5)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS -3.5 @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

The spread on this game is surprisingly low it made me think whether this is a “trap game.”  I would ordinarily suggest sticking to home teams in week 1, but the Browns should be picking in the top 4 of the draft next season — …