Football Picks Against the Spread

AFC:
East – New England Patriots (1st Seed)
North – Pittsburgh Steelers (2nd Seed)
South – Houston Texans
West – San Diego Chargers
Wild Card – Indianapolis Colts
Wild Card – Baltimore Ravens

NFC:
East – Philadelphia Eagles (1st Seed)
North – Minnesota Vikings (2nd Seed)
South – Atlanta Falcons
West – Arizona Cardinals
Wild Card – Green Bay Packers
Wild Card – New Orleans Saints…

TENNESSEE TITANS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS -6

Week 1 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday night with the Super Bowl champion Steelers facing the Tennessee Titans.  76% of the bets on the spread in this one are being placed on the Steelers.  80% of the money is taking the over and that might also be a good play since it’s set at mere 35 points.  One score past a 20-14 game and it’s in the money, but with these defenses, I’m not touching the over.

I think taking the Super Bowl defending Steelers at home is clearly the play to make.  Pittsburgh is 13-3 at home in the last 2 years.  Pittsburgh is also 7-2 against-the-spread (ATS) in their last 9 games.  Tennesee is 3-5-1 ATS in their last 9 games.  When these teams faced eachother in week 16 last year, Tennessee came out on top, 31-14.  Pittsburgh pretty much has the same squad from last season with the exception of Nate Washington, who is now with the Titans.  The Titans biggest loss is Albert Haynesworth.

I’m anticipating a pretty tight game from two very good defenses.  With the loss of Haynesworth, I expect the Steelers to commit to the run, try and control a clock, and grind this one out with a close win.  With as strong Steelers defense, and more importantly, a tough run defense, I expect that Titans running game to stay in check. I’m taking the Steelers to cover, but I’m not going to bet too much on it since I don’t see the Steelers running up the score much on a tough defense and the bet probably won’t be in the money until the 4th quarter.  Plus, one missed tackle on Chris Johnson and he …

#3 USC TROJANS (10) -7 @ #6 OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (1-0)

Date: Saturday, September 12, 8:00 p.m. EST (ESPN)

It’s week 2 in college football and there’s already a blockbuster matchup between USC and Ohio State.  Ohio State is at home, but the Trojans are 7-point favorites in this one.

All eyes are focused on top recruit QB Terrell Pryor, who is entering his sophomore year hyped to be the “next Pat White.”  USC has lost a lot of talent  on defense this year (Ray Maualuga, Brian Cushing, Clay Matthews, Fili Moala, Cary Harris, Kevin Ellison and Kaluka Maiava).  However, USC still has the best safety in college football, Taylor Mays, who has the job of containing Terrell Pryor.

Ohio State barely escaped with a win against Navy at home, winning by a mere 4 points (31-27).  Pryor had an solid game passing.  Pryor threw for 174 yards,completing 67% of his passes, with 1 passing TD, 1 INT.  Pyor also  gained 30 yards and 1 TD on the ground on 6 rushing attempts.  Navy was able to rack up 342 yards that game though, 156 of them coming on ground.  If you like OSU in this one, you have to be concerned about Ohio St.’s defense against a tough USC running game.

USC, on the other hand, dismantled San Jose State (56-3) with 620 yards of offense and only giving up 121 yards and just 9 rushing yards.

Remember this name: Joe McKnight.  #4 for USC had 145 yards and 2 TDs on just 10 carries in the game.  He’ll be giving Ohio State a lot of problems.  Ohio St. has a very weak front 7 and they haven’t shown that they can stop the run.  …

Question: Which WR should I start in my WR2 spot in week 1?

Anquan Boldin is my WR2, but he may be sitting out this week due to a hamstring injury. Should I start Antonio Bryant, Laveranues Coles, or Donnie Avery?

Answer:

I would check up on Boldin’s status at the last minute to see if he’ll be starting. If he is questionable, then I would go with Antonio Bryant.

What do you think? Answer below!…

1.) Adrian Peterson (RB) — The consensus #1 pick, you can’t go wrong.

2.) Matt Forte (RB) — Look for Forte to top last year’s numbers with Jay Cutler keeping defenses honest.  Forte’s receiving abilities with Cutler make him an even greater receiving threat than last season.  Is due for at least 1,200 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards with 12 TDs.

3.) LaDainian Tomlinson (RB) — A lot of people are knocking him for the injuries, turning 30, and questioning whether he still has gas left in the tank.  I think LaDainian still has it in him to have a very good season and he’s coming into this season with a lot to prove.  2006 numbers are out of question.  Darren Sproles will take some carries away from him.  He’s averaged 2.4 yards in 12 attempts in the preseason — not a great sign for fantasy owners.  He should still post at least 1,100 rushing yards, 450 receiving yards, and 12 TDs.  Those were his 2008 numbers when he was riddled with injuries.  He’s coming into this season healthier than last year, so look for an improvement.

4.) Maurice Jones-Drew (RB) — Now that Fred Taylor is gone, MJD’s role in the offense increases.  You have to love his rushing and receiving combination and he’ll always deliver 10+ TDs.  Most people have MJD ahead of LT, but I don’t expect MJD’s TD numbers to come close to LT’s since the Chargers have a way better offense than the Jaguars.

5.) Michael Turner (RB) — If you picked him up late, you probably won your fantasy league.  Had 1,700 yards and 18 TDs — that’s sick.  The concern is whether he can repeat those type of numbers.  He’s looked …

26.) Greg Jennings (WR) — You have a flury of wide receivers to debate about.  You could go with Greg Jennings, Terrell Owens, or Steve Smith.  All should post very similar numbers.  All should have around 1,200 yards, and 8-10 TDs.  I’m going with Greg Jennings who had 1292 yards and 9 TDs last season.

27.) Steve Smith (WR) — Missed the first 2 games last season and still had over 1,400 yards.  Lacks high TD numbers, but you can always count on solid yardage.

28.) Ronnie Brown (RB) — Due for over 1,300 combined yards and 8-10 TDs in an offense that likes to run the ball.  Has some injury concerns, but those are in the past.  The TD numbers aren’t high enough for higher pick.  Should be given more carries this year since he’s distanced himself from the ACL injury and Ricky Williams wasn’t getting it done last season.  Last year he averaged 13.3 carries per game and put up 1,170 combined yards.  With 20-25 touches a game, he could have monster stats this year.

29.) Ryan Grant (RB) — Failed to live up the first-round status last season, but he should rebound this year.  Only 4 TDs last season, but a return to his 2007 form could yield a potential of over 1,500 yards and 10 TDs.

30.) Phillip Rivers (QB) — If you missed out on Brees/Brady/Manning, it’s time to take a QB and Rivers is your guy.  He posted “Peyton-like” numbers last season with over 4,000 yards and over 30 TDs and he’s only getting better.  With the addition of Chris Chambers, he finally has the receivers to work with.

31.) Kurt Warner (QB) — With Fitzgerald, Boldin, and Breaston, it’s impossible for Warner to …

Question: Who should i sit and who to start? week 12?

I am starting Rashard Mendenhall and Ray Rice this week. They are playing each other this week and we all know that this will be a defensive battle between Pittsburgh and Baltimore. I have Knowshon Moreno and Cedric Benson on my bench. Who should I start and who should I sit??

Answer:

Leave your lineup the way it is. Benson won’t see any significant action coming back from an injury. Both the Ravens and Steelers will be looking to establish the run game so your backs will be getting plenty of touches.

Add your own answer in the comments!…