Football Picks Against the Spread

There are some big “must watch” college games this Saturday and that’s what I want to cover. These are really tough to call, but here are my two cents. I actually like the Maryland and Pittsburgh picks more than the high-profile matchups below.

#8 OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS @ #1 TEXAS LONGHORNS -12.5

I was a bit surprised the line was this high. I love Texas to win this one. Oklahoma St. is playing at a high level. Both teams are 7-0 and averaging more than 45 PPG. Both teams are perfect against the spread this year. Texas has the edge at QB with Colt McCoy who is the frontrunner to win the Hiesman and Texas has the better defense. With the home field, I see them winning this one, but will they run away with the game just like the Missouri game? That’s difficult to say. I don’t like the high spread for a game that should be an offensive showdown. This one is too close to call with the spread. I love Texas to win outright, but I don’t like giving up 12.5 in what should be a close game. I’m not indicating to take the points by the prediction as I can also see a Texas beat down just like the Missouri game. It’s just your best bet to avoid this spread or tease it to Texas -5.5 with another game.

Prediction — Texas 38 – Oklahoma State 28

#9 GEORGIA BULLDOGS @ #11 LSU TIGERS -1.5

I like the Bulldogs in this one. They have a much better QB in Matthew Staffard than LSU and have more playmakers with WRs JR Green and Mohamed Massaquoi and RB Knowshon Moreno (6.0 YPC, 11 TDs). Both teams are averaging …

We got back on track last week going 3-1 with +6 units of profit. We are 25-16 which is about 61%. This week we look to continue the impressive run and I think I have some picks that may shock you.

1. Boise State at San Jose State (+7.5) (This game is on Friday Night): There are a number of angles/reasons for playing this game. (1) Let me start by asking you this, who is in first place in the WAC conference? San Jose State is the answer with a perfect 3-0 record. BS is second with a 2-0 record. (2) Why is the #12 ranked team in the nation only favored by a TD over a school that many people know very little about? The oddsmakers must know that SJS is a little better then what most people think and they know that with a line much higher than 7 the smart betters would be pounding SJS. Remember an oddmaker’s goal is not to predict the winner, but to get even money on both teams so that Vegas gets their 10% cut. (3) Stats: SJS’s defense is very solid giving up less than 200 yards passing per and less than 50 yards rushing per game (that isn’t a typo, less than 50 yards rushing, that is simply sick). This is probably the best defense Boise State will see for the rest of the year. It will take a great defensive effort to stop the high powered offense of Boise State, but I think they will be up to the challenge at home. SJS has covered the last two at home vs. Boise State. Take the points. (Rating +2) Boise St 33 SJS 16

2. Mississippi vs. Arkansas (+5): This …

NFL WEEK 7 REACTION:

Last week I saw a great opportunity to get back into the game with an 8 team teaser that paid 10:1. There were a lot of games that I would put into the lock category with the extra 7 points such as the Titans -2 over the Chiefs, Texans -2.5 over Lions, Steelers -2.5 over Bengals, Browns +14.5 over Redskins. I thought Jets/Raiders and Bears/Vikings could go either way, but both those games worked out. It was the Saints that let us down. Before the game, Saints +10 looked like a very solid bet. All the Saints would have to do is score 17 and they should cover. Well, a Shockey fumble and a Drew Brees interception led to 14 points, Reggie Bushed injured his knee right before the second half and the game was pretty much over at that point.

NFL WEEK 8 SUMMARY:

Jets -13 at home over the Chiefs looks enticing especially knowing that the Chiefs already suck and will be without their only offensive weapon Larry Johnson due to a suspension. Jets -6 in a teaser card should work out beautifully. My Eagles are a 9-point favorite at home. I like Vegas’s confidence in the Birds, but don’t take the Falcons lightly. They aren’t 4-2 by accident. They are playing good football and Matt Ryan is looking as good as any QB in the league right now thanks to the explosive Roddy White. Cowboys may have their 3rd straight loss on the radar as Tony Romo will be out and the Bucs are rolling, especially on defense. I like the Panthers -4.5 at home over the Cardinals. When the Panthers are at home, they’re a team to reckon with and the Cardinals …

I have put together 10 games that appear to me be strong solid plays. I will list the picks in order of strength with 1 being the strongest play and 10 being the weakest play, but remember I like all these picks. There is only a quick description of the games. I will be posting home dog plays later this week with more detailed analysis. So here we go:

1. Boston College (+3) at UNC: BC is playing great and UNC is coming off a tough loss on the road verse Virginia. Looking at the stats BC dominates in average total yards, time of possession, causing turnovers, and BC’s defense allows over 100 yards less per contest then UNC’s defense. Take the points.

2. Auburn (+3.5) at WVU (notice this game is on Thursday): This game should be very tight. Auburn dominates time of possession which will be important in keeping White off the field. They are causing at least 2 turnovers a game and hold their opposition to around 100 yards rushing per game. Take the points.

3. Middle Tennessee St at Mississippi State (-11): This simply comes down to the poor performance of MTS on the road 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. They have allowed an average of 31 points on the road and have only managed to score an average of 18. On the other hand, MSU has played well at home allowing less than 10 points and causing at least 2 turnovers and going 2-1 SU and 2-0 ATS. MSU should control the ball and simply dominate this game.

4. Eastern Michigan at Ball State (-24): I know this is a big line, but Ball State has been on fire. I have been following …

I like Denver to win outright, so taking the 3 points looks good. I don’t particularly like taking the road team on Monday night, but I like my chances against a QB like Cassel. The Patriots defense hasn’t proven anything all year long, so Denver shouldn’t have a problem scoring points. However, they are without Sheffler and Selvin Young. The stars come out on Monday night (Randy Moss, maybe?) and Bellechik is at home, but if the Dolphins can destroy the Patriots at home, there’s no reason the Broncos can’t. The Pats looked good against the 49ers, but let’s be serious, who doesn’t look good against the 49ers. They got killed by the Chargers the next week.

I’ll go with Broncos +3 tonight, but I’m not personally taking the game. I also will never bet on or against the Broncos again. I don’t like the teaser w/ the over because the over or under could hit. You could tease it Denver +10 and Over 41 or Under 55 and be in good shape, but that’s your call. Conventional wisdom says Monday Night and OVER is the way to go.

Check the injury report too. Denver is without Selvin Young and Tony Scheffler, two important pieces of that Broncos offense. The good news is that Eddie Royal, who was questionable, is going to give it a go.

Prediction – Broncos 24 – Patriots 20

Cutler messes up his throwing hand on the first drive, Broncos cough up the ball 3 times, Pats turn it into 20-0 at the half. That’s why I don’t bet on the Broncos. And if I would have said take the Pats, Cutler’s throwing hand would be perfect and he ends up passing all over the …

The underdogs came back this weekend with 3 strong performances. This puts us slightly over 60% winning percentage. Hopefully we can continue this run throughout the rest of the season. My 12 team parlay hit 8 teams, did anyone make any money on a parlay based on those picks, let me know?

Underdog Plays: 3-1

Units of Profit this week: +6 units

Year underdog totals: 25-16

Units of Profit since posting on thepassrush: +1

Remember to check out NHL picks at THE ONETIMER.…

I’m going to try to hit an 8-team teaser this week. I’m just going to play 2 units, but it pays 10:1. Here’s the card:

Browns +14.5 over Redskins – Browns offense has their mojo back and their defense is looking solid to boot. I think they have their confidence back up and getting 2 TDs makes it comfortable.  Got the cover.

Jets +4 over Raiders – The Raiders are very bad and the Jets are headed in the right direction on both sides of the ball.  Got the cover.

Texans -2.5 over Lions – Texans at home vs. an awful Lions team. Calvin Johnson is questionable. If he’s out, you can lock this one up. Even if he plays, the Lions don’t have the O-line or QB to throw to him. Got the cover.

Saints +10 over Panthers – Saints should be able to hang with the Panthers in a shootout. Saints take 7-3 lead. I like it. Stupid fumble by Shockey leads to Panthers 10-7 lead. I guess I need points for the over, let’s hope Saints will drive back down and score, they’ve been moving the ball well. Panthers up 13-7 at the half. Saints get ball to start 2nd half. Reggie leaves game with knee injury. Saints down 20-7, that’s not good. Great, Drew Brees INT to set the Panthers up in the redzone. Bad news just gets worse. Saints take it to the 3 but come up short on 4th down. They had a chance to get back in there, but no dice. And that’s all she wrote. The Saints let me down and it came down to 3 things: Shockey’s fumble (led to 7 points), Brees’ INT (led to 7 points), and Reggie …