Football Picks Against the Spread

So I’m thinking of benching T.J. Houshmandzadeh because he was banged up last week and was held out of practice until Friday.  He fully participated in and is expected to play Sunday though. Plus, Carson Palmer is out and Fitzpatrick will be the starter against a tough Pittsburgh defense (ranked 2nd against the pass).

Do I bench T.J. for Kevin Walter, a Houston WR that is averaging 53 yards a game and has 3 TDs since he’s playing a dismal Lions defense that is on the road?

If you have any fantasy sit ’em or start ’em questions for Week 7, hit me up in the comments section and let me know if you would go T.J. vs. Pittsburgh or Kevin Walter vs. Detroit.…

Question:

I’m in a survivor pool and it’s down to 6 teams with $400 on the line.

The top games that I’m thinking about are:
1.) PIT – PIT -9.5 @ CIN
2.) TB – SEA @ TB – 10.5
3.) HOU – DET @ HOU – 9.5

Which game is the least likely to end up in an upset?

I don’t like the Pittsburgh Steelers they’re on the road, but they’re coming off of a bye week.

I don’t like Tampa Bay Buccaneers because if they go down early, they could have a hard time coming back. However, Seattle doesn’t have a quarterback.

I like the Texans because Detroit doesn’t have a QB, but Detroit almost pulled off the upset last week.

My weekly picks:

Week 1 – Patriots
Week 2 – Cardinals
Week 3 – Giants
Week 4 – Bills
Week 5 – Cowboys
Week 6 – Colts
Week 7 – Help Me decide

Which game would you pick?

Answer:

Take the New York Jets -3 over Oakland.  The Oakland Raiders are 3-10 at home when they’re facing a team outside the AFC West. This week Oakland is hosting the Jets and New York has covered four of their last five road games. The Jets are also 10-5 on the road when they are favored and facing a non-division opponent. New York is coming off of a 12-point win over the Browns while the Raiders just got crushed by 31 points against the Saints. That loss against the Saints saw Oakland getting outgained by over 200 yards and things could stay ugly for the Raiders.

Give your answer to this question below!…

While parlays offer nice payoffs, I always seem to lose one game to keep from that big payday. Well, I have had an ubelievably lucky week so I thought I would throw a crazy 12 team parlay together, no teaser, straight parlay. For $5 this parlay pays an amazing $3000. I have a shot to win it if only based on the fact that I have the ticket and the games haven’t started yet. Wish me luck. Here are the picks:

1. UCONN at Rutgers Scarlet Knights +1: FINAL SCORE RUTGERS 12 UCONN 10

2. Memphis at East Carolina Pirates -8: FINAL SCORE ECU 30 UM 10

3. Virginia Tech at Boston College Eagles -3 BC 28 VT 23

4. Kansas Jayhawks +20 at Oklahoma OK 45 KU 31

5. Mississippi at Alabama Crimson Tide -12 ALA 24 MIS 20

6. USC at Washington State Cougars +42½ USC 69 WSU 0

7. Pittsburgh at Navy Midshipmen +2½ PITT 42 NAVY 21

8. Ohio State at Michigan State Spartans +3 OSU 45 MSU 7

9. North Carolina at Virginia Cavaliers +4½ VIR. 16 UNC 13

10. Toledo at No Illinois Huskies -9½ NIU 38 UT 7

11. Baylor at Oklahoma State Cowboys -17 OSU 34 BU 6 

12. LSU Fighting Tigers -2½ at South Carolina LSU 24 SC 17

Let me know what you think. I think I could easily win 8 or 9, but lets hope for 12.

TOTAL: 8 OUT OF 12, THAT IS A LOSS, BUT PRETTY GOOD ATS. …

MISSOURI TIGERS @ TEXAS LONGHORNS -5.5

The most intriguing game on the college football schedule for week 8 has to be he No. 12 Missouri Tigers vs. No. 1 Texas Longhorns. Both teams are averaging more than 45 PPG. That’s ridiculous! We both know that both teams are offensive juggernauts. Missouri is averaging over 550 yards of offense a game and Texas is averaging 462 yards. Texas has the slightly better defense. Texas has given up an average of only 15.3 PPG while Missouri’s average is 21.3 PPG. What’s more impressive with Texas is their play against the run. On the ground, Texas is only allowing 1.9 yards per attempt.

So far Texas has been playing brilliant football at home where they’ve only given up an average of 10 points and 270 yards a game while scoring an average of 52 PPG, compared to Missouri’s 17 points and 352 yards allowed on the road to Nebraska. But of course Texas should roll over teams like Arkansas, Rice, and Florida Atlantic at home.

Last week the Tigers lost to the Oklahoma State Cowboys at home 28-23 and they were a 2 touchdown favorite. Texas is coming off a big emotional win in the Red River Rivalry where they topped the Oklahoma Sooners 45-35 (as a 7-point underdog) in what was one of the best college games of the year. The key to Missouri’s loss last week was Chase Daniel’s 3 INTs. He threw for 390 yards, but you just can’t turnover the ball like that. In his previous 5 games, Chase threw 15 TDs and only 1 INT. Chase is also completing over 75% of his passes. Chase is coming into this game with 2,055 yards, 16 TDs, 4 INTs. Colt …

While last week was tough on the dogs, they have still won at almost 60% this year. Therefore, I can’t give up on the dogs after one bad week.

1. California at Arizona (+2): Overall this should be one of the best football games of the weekend. Both teams are averaging almost 410 yards of total offense and both teams’ defenses allow less than 300 yards with the slight edge going to the Wildcats. The Wildcats are 3-0 at home, while Cals only loss came on the road against a decent Maryland team. However, there is one stat that makes this game a play, the surface. Arizona’s field surface is grass, while California’s surface is Artifical Turf. Cal is a dismal 3-13 ATS on grass. Cal is also only 2-7 ATS over their last 9, while in that same stretch Arizona is a remarkable 7-2. (Rating +4).

***Side Bet: Above I pointed out that these teams both have very tough defenses, but they also have decent offensive attacks as well. Therefore the Over/Under seems like a potential play because it seems to be set more towards the offenses at 54.5. I will take the under as I believe the Ds will play an important role. (Rating +3)

2. Texas Tech at Texas A&M (+21): If you followed my picks last week I was spot on by taking the points Nebraska was getting on the road at TT. Nebraska lost by 3 in overtime. TT has dominated the spread in this series covering 21 of 28 times. However, TT has only been favored 6 times in the past 29 years, and they have never had to lay this many points, especially on the road. This is a huge in-state rivarly game …

NFL WEEK 7 SPREADS SUMMARY:

Here is my 2 cents on the games this week. I like the Steelers -10 since Palmer will be out for Cincy. The Bears at home might be a good play over the Vikings. I like the teaser of Saints +10 over the Panthers and over 37.5. That one should see lots of points and the Saints should keep it close even if they drop the game to a Panthers team that seems to roll offensively at home. Jets -3 is good if you want to look for a low spread to take, but they’re on the road, which is always a concern. I like Houston -8.5 over the Lions since the Lions are garbage, especially on the road. I think the Browns should cover the 7 if they can play the same football they played on Monday, but being on the road on a short week against a team wanting to bounce back from last week’s huge upset via the Rams doesn’t look promising for them. 10.5 is too much for the Giants to give up based on the Browns and Bengals games, but a Seahawks-style whooping isn’t out of question. I’d still take the 10.5 in that one, but you also have to factor in the West Coast team playing on the East Coast, which has been huge deal this year (the West Coast teams are 0-11 this year).

Personally, I’m not betting on the games this week since the NFL season has been ridiculous this season. I’ll see how this week goes to see if my mojo is back. Additionally, I realized I have a future on the Phillies to win the World Series. I put $10 on them when the odds …

In all honesty, do not bet on tonight’s game. The Browns are a 9-point underdog at home off a bye week. The Giants are arguably the NFL’s best team. However, the Giants have had a very easy schedule and the Browns are playing tough teams and coming off a win. Some people are saying this is a trap game for the Giants. If they don’t take the Browns seriously, they may be in trouble.

On the other hand, a simple look at the Giants statistics and it looks like they will dominate this game. They lead the league in yards and points per game and are 2nd in points allowed, so statistically, it looks like the Giants should blowout the Browns.

How much will the home-dog, on a Monday night, off a bye week factor in for the Browns? Will they pull off the upset, cover the spread, or get blown out (or blowed out as Emmitt Smith likes to say)? I could see any of the above happening, so I’ll pass.

For the sake of kick and giggles, I’ll say Giants -8 is the play to make, but I’m not taking this game. I will also not be betting on the Giants because I will be pulling for the Browns since I would love nothing more than a Giants loss so the Eagles can gain some more ground in the NFC East.

Unbelievable! As I said, a great game to pass on!  Only 1 ESPN analyst picked the Browns and look at the result.  The NFL season keeps getting crazier.  The Giants have been dominating almost every statistical category and the Browns win.  The QB with the 2nd worst passer rating breaks out against one of the best defenses …