Football Picks Against the Spread

The Bills came through for me and beat the Rams 31-14. I was getting nervous when they were down 14-6, but they pulled through. As long as I hit that game, I was in good shape. I had 9 units on them since I bought a point to make it an even 7-point spread and that game and it earned me 7 units. The Broncos let me down again in what’s becoming an all too familiar story. I’m going to have to make a pledge to never bet on or against the Broncos because no matter which I side I take, then end up screwing me every time. I took their spread against the Chiefs and had them in my teaser card, but they lost the game. They turned the ball over 4 times and allowed Larry Johnson to run all over them. You just can’t do that.

Then the Eagles really ruined my day. Not only are they my team, but I had a lot of money riding on them and I was more than confident that they would win. They were 1 foot away from winning that game. 1 foot. Football is truly a game of inches. That game made me sick to my stomach. A muffed punt that led to a Chicago touchdown, 2 missed field goals, and being unable to get into the endzone twice after having a 1st down within the 5 yard line. It was a bad day to be an Eagles fan. You end up thinking nothing but what ifs for the next week: what if they had Westbrook that game, what if DeSean hadn’t fumbled that punt, what if McNabb wouldn’t have tripped at the goal line forcing the Eagles to settle …

So my bets are placed. My big game of the week is the Bills over the Rams. I’m bought a point to take the spread from Bills -8 to Bills -7, which I put 9 units on in order to win 7 units. The Rams are the NFL’s worst team. When they’re scoring 9.7 PPG and allowing 38.7 PPG, I’m pretty comfortable taking the Bills, who have an outstanding defense, excellent running game, and solid passing game. The Rams have only been inside the redzone twice in three games. The Rams are even making desperation moves like going with Trent Green over Marc Bulger. The morale in St. Louis is at an all-time low. I’m extremely confident with the Bills this week.

I also put 7 units on the Eagles -3 over the Chicago Bears. The Eagles are great at stopping the run, so I’m not worried about Matt Forte, forget Orton passing on this secondary, and the Bears have a suspect pass defense, which McNabb should pass all over.  Oh, and McNabb has never lost in Chicago.

I then put 6 units on the Broncos -9.5. If the Rams are the worst team in the NFL, the Chiefs are a close second. With the Broncos explosive offense and the Chiefs allowing 26 PPG and only mustering 10.7 PPG, I’m pretty comfortable with this spread.

I then did a 5-unit, 3-team teaser taking the Bills -1, Broncos -2.5 and Chargers -2. It pays out 7 units and I’m pretty confident with all 3 teams.

Use your own judgment picking your games this Sunday and good luck. Here are my full NFL Week 4 Predictions.…

The Sunday and Monday night spreads got released late, so I didn’t get a chance to add those previews to the list, so I’ll cover them here.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -3 @ CHICAGO BEARS

As an Eagles fan, I naturally think the Eagles will pounds the Bears. The Bears have been great at stopping the run, but they’re struggling against the pass. The Bears are 28th against the pass, allowing over 250 YPG. With the hot start McNabb has gotten off to, I expect him to be throwing all over the field. I love the way the Eagles offense is playing and their defense has been even better. The Eagles have the best rush defense in the league, so they should shut down Matt Forte and I don’t expect Orton to do anything against this Eagles secondary. I’m putting 7 units on the Eagles would throw this into the “spreads to take” category, but keep in my, I am an Eagles fan.

Prediction — Eagles 24 – Bears 13

Pick Against the Spread: Eagles -3 — Confidence 4/5
Pick Straight Up: Eagles — Confidence 4/5

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS -5

The Ravens could very well pull off the upset this week. The Ravens have the best defense in the NFL and with Willie Parker out and Ben Roethlisberger extremely banged up, the Steelers offense will be in bad shape against this defense. The Steelers pass protection was exposed by the Eagles last week and the Ravens should easily be able to dominate their offense line again this week. The only question is whether the Ravens offense has enough to win this one. I would take the points here. I could see the Ravens either pulling off the upset or losing …

It’s been a while since I’ve done college football picks. I usually don’t bet on college football except for the Bowl Games. I haven’t looked into these matchups, but I just wanted to put up a few picks just based on my hunches and see how I end up doing. Here are my week 5 college football picks against the spread.

Wisconsin -6.5 OVER MICHIGAN

Minnesota +19.5 OVER OHIO ST.

North Carolina +7.5 OVER MIAMI

Piitsburgh -15 OVER SYRACUSE

South Florida -9.5 OVER N.C. STATE

PENN STATE -16 OVER Illinois

Remember, my week 4 NFL picks are below, or you can follow the link.

Recap: These picks went 3-3. Wisconsin blew the game to Michigan in the 4th quarter, Penn State didn’t cover by 2 points, Pittsburgh didn’t cover by 5, Minnesota was able to cover, North Carolina pulled off the upset, and South Florida dominated N.C. State.…

We get it by now. You drafted Randy Moss and in the last two weeks (in the post-Brady era), your hopes of winning the season have gone down the tubes and you’re hoping that you could trade him for any WR that is in the “WR2 category.” In my league, I’d be lucky if I could trade Randy Moss for Roddy White or DeSean Jackson. I had the #7 pick and naturally, after the top 5 backs are off the board, you have to go Randy Moss, right? Well, I was stuck in that position and now I’m pissed I passed on Marion Barber. So, I try to package Kurt Warner to go to the guy who needs QB help (he has Derek Anderson and Matt Cassel) with Randy Moss and I throw in Edgerrin for Marshawn and Cotchery and it was immediately denied. People are avoiding Randy Moss like the plague. His 1,500+ 20+ TD plus season last year means nothing. This year, people think he would be lucky if he ended up with 600 yards and 4 TDs. Right now, Randy Moss’s value is about as high as Brandon Lloyd’s or Robert Meachem’s.

I’ve been scrambling to trade Randy Moss and and I’ve been offered Jericho Cotchery, but I still don’t want to make the move. Cotchery will get you a consistent 6-8 points a week, but I still haven’t given up on Randy just yet, and I’ll tell you why.

There’s no need to push the panic button just yet. Go out and grab Brandon Lloyd or Antonio Bryant off your waiver wire as a 3rd receiver and just wait until weeks 5-7 for Randy Moss. The Pats upcoming schedule is against teams are playing extremely poor …

Before we get started, I just want to let you know that I’ve already posted up my NFL Week 4 Predictions. I also wrote an article on solid week 4 waiver wire pickups to consider.  Check both of those out.

START ‘EM:

1.) Fred Taylor & Maurice Jones-Drew – The Jags got back to doing what they do best: running the football. There were enough carries for both players against the Colts and they both put up huge numbers. This week, the Jags will remain committed to the run against the Texans, who are allowing 168.5 yards on the ground.

2.) Selvin Young – If you haven’t been playing Selvin Young, this may be a good week to start him. In his last two games he’s turned in 78 and 65 yard games. Even more impressive is his average: 6.9 YPC. Against the Chiefs, the 31st ranked rushing defense, he should have a big game.

3.) Marshawn Lynch – Not that you would ever sit him the way that he’s playing, but he has the Rams this week. I think he’s good for 150 yards and 2 TDs. The Rams are allowing 2 rushing TDs per game.

4.) Chris Perry – Perry was finally able to do some things rushing the ball and he got 74 yards of 20 carries and a TD against the Giants, who have a pretty good run defense. This week, he’ll have an easier defense to work with: the Cleveland Browns (25th against the run). The Browns are also allowing 2 rushing TDs per game.

5.) Lee Evans – Evans has gotten off to a good start, averaging 81.3 YPG. Look for him to break the century mark against the Rams this week.

6.) …

IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR 2009 WEEK 4 NFL PICKS, VISIT OUR HOME PAGE (THESE ARE 2008’S PICKS)!

Week 4 in the NFL looks much easier than last week and there are a few games that I like a lot. The harder part is trying to decide which ones to bet on and which ones to pass on. I’m going to say that it should be a great strategy to bet against the Rams, Chiefs, and Lions this year. The Lions have a bye week this week, but I think we should be able to take advantage of the Rams and Chiefs this week. Those are two terrible teams on both sides of the ball who are facing excellent offenses with pretty good defenses to boot. The Bills and Broncos games were the two games that immediately jumped off the page at me.

For the Bills game, I bought a point to take the spread from Bills -8 to Bills -7. Most sportsbook’s have the line at Bill -9.5, so I figured I should jump at the opportunity to move the line down to 7 before it goes up even higher. I put 10 units on them to win 7. I then put 8 units on the Broncos -9.5. I also did a 3-team teaser for 5 units that pays 7 units (Chargers -2, Bills -1, and Broncos -2.5). I’ll analyze why I made these picks in the preview to follow.

SPREADS TO TAKE:

BUFFALO BILLS -8 @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

So the Rams are ranked 32nd in points allowed and 31st in points scored, so they must be really bad, right? The Rams rank in the bottom of every single category on offense and defense. There is literally nothing …