Football Picks Against the Spread

This week is a tough one in the NFL. There will be a lot of tight games. I wanted to come out and find a solid home team to take, but I didn’t really like any of the home favorites. The Saints are a 3-point favorite against the Vikings, but I’m worried about that banged up Saints defense against Adrian Peterson. The Panthers spread is too high for me and I still have the Chiefs win over the Broncos fresh in my head. I’m not about to test the 49ers over the Pats or Texans over the Colts. The Cardinals lost Anquan Bolden, so I’ll stay away from them. I’m not sold on the Giants covering against the Seahawks without Plaxico Burress. The Jaguars may be a good home team to take, but I don’t like their chances against a tough Pittsburgh defense. The Ravens/Titans is too close to call. After eliminating those games, the two that I like the most are the San Diego Chargers -6.5 and Chicago Bears -3.5 over the Lions.

My big game of the week is the Chargers -6.5 over the Miami Dolphins, which I put 10 units on. I am a little nervous after I saw 2/5 of ESPN’s panel pick the Dolphins, but 9/10 picked the Chargers on this expert panel. Everyone has the New England game fresh in their mind. Let’s set a few things straight. Matt Cassel is not Philip Rivers and the carousel of mediocre backs (LaMont Jordan, Sammy Morris, and Kevin Faulk) that New England has are not LaDanian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles. Phillip Rivers has the 2nd highest passer rating in the league and Matt Cassel is 15th. Rivers has 10 TD passes, Cassel has 2. Rivers …

Overall, I have not had a very good read on the NFL so far this year, but there are few games I like this weekend.

1. Tennessee @ Baltimore (+3): There is no arguing that Tennessee has been great so far this year. Their defense has been strong allowing less than a 100 yards rushing per game and less than 300 overall. Kerry Collins has looked like the leader he once was when playing for Penn State. However, they are not going to win them all. This weekend they take on arguably the best defense in football. The Raven’s D is allowing less than 70 yards rushing per game and only 117 yards passing, that is simply sick. Flacco is doing the one thing he is suppose to be doing, not losing the game. If he continues to make good decisions, play within his ability, and not hold onto the ball for too long in the pocket, then the Ravens will be in a great position to win this game. (Rating +4) Baltimore was in control for most of the game, but the 4th quarter belonged to the Titans. The Titans scored 10 points in the 4th quarter for the win, however we had to settle for the push. Titans 13 Bal. 10.

2. Minnesota at New Orleans (-3): I am playing this game based primarily on Minnesota’s inability to put things together so far this year, especially on the road. They are 0-2 ats and 0-2 su on the road so far this year. The Saints haven’t been great, but are 2-0 ats and 2-0 su at home so far this year. The Saints seem to play inspired ball when playing at home. I think this game comes down …

I decided to start a new feature here at THE PASS RUSH: Fantasy Mailbag. Before we get to that, I wanted to introduce you to our new guest writer, Brandon Phillips, whose specialty is college football. He’s already 70% against the spread (17-7) this year on his college picks, which he’ll be posting weekly. You can read his week 6 college football picks by following the link or reading below. And don’t forget to check out my week 5 NFL picks.

Now onto the Fantasy Mailbag. I urge you all to submit your questions by using the comments link at the bottom of this article. Write your question there and we’ll get back to you. Basically, anything in the “who do I start” category should go under this post.  Wondering whether to start Eli Manning or Brett Favre, do you have 5 receivers and don’t know which 3 to start, or are you debating whether to go with Clinton Portis against the 3rd-ranked run defense or Chris Johnson, post your question in this thread.…

Since this is the first time posting anything here at thepassrush.com, I thought I would say a little about myself and my betting strategy. I am a soon to be Law school graduate with an interest in Family Law and Corporate Law. My true love is baseball, but seem to have a good handle on college football and college basketball picks. The one thing I know about gambling is that over the years Las Vegas has only lost one bet, home-dogs against the spread, with a win rate of 54%, you need about 52% to break even. Therefore, I always begin the week by looking at home-dogs and working from there. Each week I will give you some home-dogs that I like. So far this year my home dog plays are 17-7 ATS. I will value rate the games (1-5, 5 being the strongest game).

Week 6 Home-Dogs:

1.) BYU @ Utah State (+29): While on paper this game looks like another easy blowout win by BYU, I continue to value home field-advantage. BYU has looked very good this year except for the game at Washington, a 28-27 win. Washington has not proved anything so far this year to back up the strong performance they had against BYU, so either they aren’t playing up to their ability or BYU just didn’t come into the game well enough prepared. Utah State is 2-2 ATS so far this year. While I don’t think they have a chance of winning, they have shown the ability to score points, scoring an average of 23 points per game, so even if they give up 50, they still may be within the number. (Rating +2) It wasn’t pretty and basically we just got lucky, but in …

START ‘EM:

1.) Matt Forte – The Eagles shut down Forte, but look for Forte get back his normal ways against a defense that allows 207 rushing yards per game. Another 90 yard rushing, 70 yard receiving yard, 1 TD isn’t out of question.

2.) Steve Slaton – Slaton has gotten off to a hot start. He’s eclipsed over 100 yards in his last 2 games and has scored a TD in each. The Texans are up against the Colts, who are struggling against the run (ranked 31st).

3.) Jonathan Stewart – The Chiefs allow 176 YPG on the ground. Stewart is another rookie off to an amazing start. He’s a very good option to start this game.

4.) Joseph Addai – Fresh off the bye week, the Colts will be able to move the ball well on the ground against a poor Texans run defense. The Texans did play much better against the run last week against the Jaguars last week, but Addai is still due for a big game.

5.) Frank Gore – We saw what Ronnie Brown did to the Pats, who are giving up 140 YPG on the ground. Need I say more?

6.) Marion Barber – Although Barber was a bust last week, Dallas should learn that they need to get him more carries and that will be the game plan against the Bengals, who give up more than 160 YPG on the ground.

7.) Earnest Graham – The Broncos nearly gave up 200 yards to Larry Johnson last week. That has be excited as a Graham owner against this defense.

SIT EM:

1.) Clinton Portis – Even though I had him on the sit ’em list last week, I decided it would be wiser …

1.) Deuce McAllister (RB-NO) – I drafted Deuce in the 15th round and then dropped him after 3 games because he wasn’t getting on the field. Well, it looks like he’s finally healthy again and will be the feature back of the Saints for the remainder of the season. In his first full game back for the Saints, Deuce had 73 yards off 20 carries and 1 TD. Sean Peyton said that Deuce will remain “heavily involved” in the offense from now on.

2.) Lance Moore (WR-NO) – If you picked up Robert Meachem last week and started him this week, you were in good shape since Meachem had 2 receptions for 99 yards and 1 TD. While Colston is out, Moore appears to be Brees’ go to guy. I still like Meachem, but unless he converts on the deep ball he won’t give you much. He’ll either get you a huge gain and a TD or nothing, which makes him a risky player to start. This week, Moore had 7 receptions for 101 yards and 2 TDs. Against Denver, Moore had 7 receptions for 78 yards.

3.) Donnie Avery (WR-STL) – The Rams decided to finally get their 2nd-round pick involved in the offense. In the Bills game, Avery has already had 3 receptions for 22 yards, and a 37 yard run for a touchdown, which I’ll assume came off an end-around. I still wouldn’t start him just yet, but he’s a player to keep your eye on. It was just one nice trick play that got him into the endzone.

4.) Matt Jones (WR-JAC) – Matt Jones has emerged as the Jaguars #1 WR. Matt had his best game of the season against the Texans by getting 71 …

CLICK HERE FOR 2009 NFL WEEK 5 PREDICTIONS AND PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD (THIS IS THE 2008 VERSION)

I’m still thinking about what games I want to take. There are a few spreads that I like, but I still have to think about them and narrow it down. Stay tuned for my actual picks later (probably Sunday morning). I want to limit my picks to home teams since that was the trend last week (home teams were 9-4). Right now, my favorite two games are the Chargers -6.5 over the Dolphins and Bears -3.5 over Detroit (I actually like the teaser of Bears +3.5 and over 37.5 in that game, see below), but they’re two road teams. The Saints, Buccaneers, and Bills are also on my radar, but they’re also road teams.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -3 @ HOUSTON TEXANS

DO NOT TAKE THE COLTS! I’m not saying the Texans are necessarily a lock, but I would be very concerned about the Colts run defense without Bob Sanders. If I’m a Steve Slaton fantasy owner, I’m loving this matchup because he could easily get about 20 points this game. The Texans always play hard against the Colts in Houston. The Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. The last two times the Colts played the Texans in Houston, the Colts won last game 30-24 (Colts didn’t cover the 6.5 spread) and Texans upset the Colts in the game before that 27-24 as a 9-point underdog. I would say that this game has upset alert written all over it, but I never want to bet against Peyton Manning tearing it up though.

Prediction — Texans 27 – Colts 24

Pick Against the Spread: Texans +3 — Confidence 2/5
Pick Straight …