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NFL Super Bowl 44 Prediction and Pick Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL General on February 4th, 2010 | Comment »

The Super Bowl is just a few days upon us.  This is the Super Bowl that we’ve dreamed of since the fourth week into the season.  Many of us after just a few weeks into the season easily predicted that the Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints would face each other in the Super Bowl and we could easily be treated to what could be the best Super Bowl EVER.

The last two Super Bowls have been outstanding and the Patriots vs. Panthers Super Bowl was phenomenal as well, but this one has the makings of what could be the BEST SUPER BROWL EVER.

I hope you’ve stuck with us the last two weeks since our playoff record in the last 2 weeks has been 5-1. Not only did I say that the Colts would win by at least 10 points last week and predict a win by 14, off by a mere point, but I boldly called a Saints win by EXACTLY a field goal.  I said the Saints would win by 3 giving the Vikings +3.5 a winning ticket.


I’ve also won the last two Super Bowl by taking the dogs and the points.  However, it also helped that I hated both opposing teams: the Patriots and Steelers.  I’m an Eagles fan and I did consider the Giants as the lesser of two evils that game.  I took Cardinals +7 last year and Giants +12.5 the year before that.  Will I take the dog again this year?  Let’s see.

Everyone is expecting both teams to score into the 30’s this game as the over/under is set at 56.5.  I think the Colts will win this one, but can the Saints keep it close enough to cover?  That’s a tough one.  I think there’s a good chance the Colts win by 3 or 4 points here.  You know the Saints will be fighting the whole game to keep up with Peyton Manning and the Colts.  The Colts have the better D, but the Saints faced a tough Vikings defense two weeks ago and that didn’t slow them down much.

The Saints were forced to punt more than usual though. They punted 7 times.  Other than a game against the Panthers in week 17, the Saints punter has never kicked the ball more than 5 times in a single game.  Drew Brees still got the job done.  3 TDs from Brees.  The Saints also caught a ton of breaks that game though.  The Vikings threw 2 picks and had 6 fumbles, 3 that were lost!  That made me want to look at the turnover differential.  I was expecting the Colts to dominate this category, but to the contrary: the Saints have a +11 turnover differential compared to the Colts +2.

The thing that makes this game tough to call is because I expect the game to play out like this. First, I think the team to receive the ball first is a huge factor in this game. To make a few bold predictions like saying the Saints will win by exactly 3 points in the NFC Championship, I will throw out a few more predictions purely for your enjoyment: I will say that the team who wins the coin toss will be the team to win the Super Bowl and that the team that receives the ball first will be the team to score first (although not necessarily on their first drive).

I am going to predict that Colts are the first team with the ball and that they are the first team to draw blood via a TD by Pierre Garcon.  For the rest of the game, I think you see the Colts maintain a 7-10 point lead for the better part of 3 quarters.  By the 4th quarter, I think you can expect a score in the range of 27-20.  I think you see the Saints D come to life and hold the Colts to a FG and bump the lead to 30-20. Drew Brees will then drive his team down the field for a TD only to be outdueled by Peyton Manning, who has an easy time scoring.  37-27.  Brees gets one last chance to keep his team in the game, Brees scores to make the game 37-34, but unfortunately, there is just is not enough time for the Saints to pull out the W.

In other words, I expect this game to appear like the Colts are a lock to win as they spend nearly the entire game with a 7-10 lead.  However, late game heroics by Drew Brees and the Saints will pull them within 3 points only to have the clock expire on them.

Take that and run with it.  We’ll see what happens.  It’s going to be a great game.  Enjoy and  Good luck!

Prediction: Colts 37 – Saints 34

Free Pick: Colts Moneyline, Saints +5

Fun Props: Heads (-110), Colts Win Toss (-110), Peyton Manning Over 2.5 TDs (-110), Peyton Manning Super Bowl MVP (-200), Pierre Garcon Scores 1st TD (+800).

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