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Super Bowl Prediction and Pick Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on January 28th, 2008 | 2 Comments

It looks like the Giants line is between +11 and +13.  I not taking the game myself because as an Eagles fan, I want the Giants to lose.  I do, however, think that the Giants will cover this Sunday.  I think the Patriots escape with a 10-point victory.  I’m going to go ahead and say that the game will be something like 27-17 or 34-24.  Just like the Chargers, just like the Jaguars, and just like most of the teams that the Patriots faced since the Eagles in week 12, the Giants will be able to hang around before Brady closes the game out in the 4th quarter, which is why the Patriots are 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 games.  Remember, the Giants only lost by 3 the last time these teams played.

There are a few reasons I wouldn’t suggest taking the Patriots spread: Tom Brady says his foot is fine, but others say it contributed to his 3 INTs against the Chargers two weeks ago; Randy Moss has been shut down throughout the playoffs (translates into more short Welker yards that picks up small pieces, but leaves out the big play; that translates into more time off the clock and less chances to cover the 11-13 points); the Giants pass rush has been insane, with Brady on a bum foot, he’ll have trouble escaping any pressure; the Giants, to me, are playing just as inspired, if not more, than the Patriots: even though they won last week, they looked nervous, irritated, and even worn down.

There are a few reason why I would be reluctant if you want to take the Giants: Eli has been great, but he does have the occasional piss-poor game; the Patriots will give up a lot of yards between the 20s, but once a team is in the redzone, they buckle down; the Giants still have some injuries in the secondary.

Overall, I think you’re better off taking the Giants spread.  The Giants aren’t going to lay down and should still be in the game in the 4th quarter; I’m expecting a fairytale Brady scoring drive late in the 4th quarter to finally put the game out of reach.

Prediction – Patriots defeat Giants 27-17

Patriots Moneyline – Confidence 4/5
Giants +12.5 Spread – Confidence 3/5

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