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Thursday Night Winner: Play on Under

Posted by in College Football Picks on September 22nd, 2010 | Comment »

Miami Hurricanes @ Pittsburgh Panthers

We’re in for a treat Thursday night when the Panthers host the Hurricanes. These two teams haven’t met since 2003 when Miami topped them 28-14. Miami is coming off a bye week and got that extra week to recover after that 36-24

Pitt looks to celebrate a victory tomorrow under the lights.

loss to Ohio State. And if you think about it, the Miami/Ohio State game should have been a lot lower scoring, but Miami had four crucial turnovers that led to some easy Ohio State scores. Miami’s defense has had that extra week of rest and has their work cut out for them with Pitt as they average 31 points a game.

Ok now let’s talk about some of the major reasons why I like the under besides the stats. The line opened up at a total of 55. If any of you have been following the line movement you’ll notice it’s down to 50. Now for all you mathematicians out there that’s a difference of five points. FIVE! Jump on the under. If there’s one play that I think will hit for sure this week it’s the under in this game. You might hear people “oh they put up 24 against that stifling Ohio State defense” and “oh Pitt is average 31 points per game how can you take the under!”. Well don’t be fooled.

Key Trends:

  • The under is 7-0 in Miami’s last seven against Big East opponents.
  • The under is 10-4 in Miami’s last 14 Thursday night games.
  • The under is 10-4 in Pitt’s last 14 Thursday night games.
  • The under is 5-1 in Pitt’s last six following a win in the previous week.

Play on under (50) Confidence (4/5) (Winner)

Want my opinion on the spread? Go home dog baby. Wouldn’t recommend betting it, but I like Pitt to win this one outright.

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