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Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Prediction and Pick Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on September 27th, 2010 | Comment »
Packers vs. Bears Pick Against the Spread

It's going to be a battle of two gunslingers tonight!


Tonight is Monday Night Football and it’s time for a classic NFC North matchup as the Chicago Bears host the Green Bay Packers. Both teams are 2-0 to start the season. Bears come into this one 1-1 ATS, failing to cover at home against the Lions and following that up with a route over the Cowboys on the road. The Packers come in at 2-0 ATS with dominating wins over the Eagles and Bills.

As I keep exhausting ad naseum, beware of home dogs. Home dogs are 3-4 ATS this week and somewhere in the range of 9-6-3 ATS in the first two weeks. These low spreads a la Redskins (-3.5) @ Rams and 49ers (-2.5) @ Chiefs lure you in and that’s how the books will trap you. However, there are plenty of road favorites who came through this past week if you were fortunate enough to take the Eagles, Colts, Bengals, or Steelers.

I’m going to take the Packers here. They are just way too talented. Not only do they have a top 5 offense, but I would also place their defense in the top 5. They are a championship caliber team and seeing how the Saints have started this season, I think there is room to even argue that the Packers are currently the best team in the National Football League.

I am that high on the Packers after seeing first hand how their defensive players fly around. Not only do the Pack have A.J. Hawk and Nick Barnett to tie down their LBs, but they added Clay Matthews on the outside who has been an absolute beast to try and stop. With Cullen Jenkins and B.J. Raji up front, I don’t see how anyone can argue that this isn’t a top 3 front 7. Add in one of the best corners in the league in CB Charles Woodson and stout FS Nick Collins and you have the recipe for an excellent defense. It’s unfortunate that CB Al Harris and S Atari Bigby are out for a while, but this Packers defense is legit.

The Bears D has also been very strong so far this year, holding the Cowboys to 20 and the Lions to 14 with an insane 1.4 yards per rushing attempt. That’s right, the Bears have allowed less than 2 rushing yards per attempt to the Lions and Cowboys. The Bears have only given up 28 rushing yards per game in those two contests. When an opposing defense can completely shutdown another team’s running game, they always have a shot at winning the game.

If there’s anyone who can beat an opposing defense with their passing game though, you can be confident that Aaron Rodgers can get it done. The Bears have given up 261 passing yards per game, so they’ve struggled against the pass.

The Bears passing attack has also been excellent so far. Cutler has had QB ratings of 108 and 136. He’s completed 65% and then 72% of his passes. He threw for 372 yards against the Lions and 277 yards against the Cowboys. He’s also protected the football this year, throwing 5 TDs to just 1 INT. Last year he had 27 TDs to 26 INTs. Jay Cutler is back everyone.

With the tremendous passing attacks from both teams, this game should be extremely entertaining. With the over/under at 46.5, it’s too high for me to want to take the over, but I do think it hits in a close one.

I was initially loving the Packers, but after taking into consideration the Bears dominating run defense and the level of play seen from Jay Cutler this season, now that the Pack are without two key players in their secondary, I would venture to say that the Bears do have a shot in this game. I think the Packers come out on top though. The (-3) spread looks pretty fair to me. I’ll favor the Packers and give them a 67% chance of winning this game and a 55% chance of covering the 3 points. Whether you want to take this one is up to you. I just want to watch a great game.

Prediction: Packers 27 – Bears 24

Pick Against the Spread: Packers -3 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

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