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Missed Top Picks, But Teasers Bailed Me Out

Posted by in NFL Picks on September 30th, 2012 | Comment »

I went 7-2 ATS at 1:00 and 9-4 ATS after the 4:00 games. Unfortunately, my top pick at 1:00 was one of my two losses. I was high on the Falcons after they’ve dominated their first three games. I knew the Panthers would have some fight in them, but thought their defense would let them down just like the Giants game. I was forecasting a 10-14 win by the Falcons, but the Falcons barely squeaked by with the victory.

Good thing I said to hedge your bets as I recommended two teasers: Falcons/Cardinals and Falcons/Broncos, which both hit. The pundits who said take the points rather than lay the points were right and I’m glad I listened right before kickoff. Hopefully, you were also able to jump on those teasers. I also played a third teaser of Cardinals (+3)/Broncos/Packers (-0.5) at 4:00, which I also hit by the skin of my teeth thanks to a lot of luck. I got incredibly lucky hitting all three teasers as the Falcons and the Cardinals both should have lost — they both came from behind to win — but sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.

As Andy Reid always says after a disappointing loss, “we have to find a way to get better.” The home dogs have royally screwed up my head. I should have been all over the Patriots, 49ers, and Bengals this week, but I saw a home dog and avoided them like the plague — looking solely at home teams this week. If it wasn’t for a hot start for the home dogs, I would have made all of them my top plays instead of opting for the Falcons or Cardinals. My teasers bailed out my misses at the top of my list and I’m happy to have a 9-4 record in the pick ’em league this week.

Sorry if I let you down this week with my top two picks, but hopefully you were able to capitalize off of our other picks or the recommended teasers which were posted this morning. Overall, the majority of our picks were right on point, but we picked the wrong games in the Cardinals and Falcons.

Tonight my Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) are facing the New York Giants. I’m an Eagles fan so I have to pass on this game. I have my concerns about the Eagles, but with Hakeem Nicks out, I’m a little more confident the Birds can pull this one out.

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