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WEEK 4 – THE FINAL WORD

Posted by in NFL Picks on September 30th, 2012 | 77 Comments

Week 4 Final WordI had a fantastic Saturday in college football going 3-for-3. I was all over Brandon’s first pick of the day in Clemson (-7) over Boston College. I bet that game big as I’ve been on the Clemson bandwagon all season long. I then took those winnings and took Texas (-2) over Oklahoma State and Wisconsin (+11) over Nebraska (Brandon’s pick in the late game). Both winners. The bank roll is doing well my friend going into Sunday.

This Sunday I have plays on Falcons (-7) over Panthers, Cardinals (-6) over Dolphins, and a teaser with Vikings (+11.5)/Over 41.5. I’m hedging my bets here with the Falcons and Cardinals as there’s some chatter that the Panthers and Dolphins may cover. In the Falcons vs. Panthers game, there is of course that risk that Cam Newton goes off and makes this a tight one. This is a division game afterall. I see some merit in the argument that the Panthers (+7) looks good on paper, but I look at how dominating the Falcons have been and see nothing but liabilities on the Panthers defense. Is a 34-31 style shootout possible? Yes, but I think the Falcons win by 10-14 points here. I’ll stick with the Falcons here. Although Cam may due for a solid game, his defense will let him down once again. The Panthers D-line doesn’t generate any pressure and the Panthers secondary can’t cover. Matt Ryan is going to have a big day. Good luck trying to keep up.

Others are claiming Dolphins (+6) is the play to make here. Now I warned that I’m concerned with giving up the points with an offense that isn’t very prolific against a solid defense. However, as long as we get the same Cardinals defensive effort that we saw through the first three weeks, the Cardinals should come out on top with the cover. I don’t expect Miami to score very much, especially with Reggie Bush hobbled by a knee injury. I’m also expecting Ryan Tannehill’s offensive struggles to continue as he’ll likely throw a pick or two in this game. If Miami wins the turnover battle, they will cover this spread, but if the turnover battle is even or in favor of Arizona, I think you see them cover the spread.

To hedge my bets here I thew in two teasers to my card: Falcons/Cardinals and Falcons/Broncos. With those teasers, points aren’t a factor. I wanted to stick to home teams this week as the home dogs have been dominating this season. If you want to take road favorites to give up less points, be my guest. I think you look at Patriots (-4), 49ers (-4.5), and Bengals (-2.5), but I’m going to stay away from betting against the home dogs.

One last 1:00 play to throw out there — Vikings +11.5/Over 41.5. The Vikings looked fantastic last week against the 49ers. Christian Ponder is coming into his own and developing a nice chemistry with TE Kyle Rudolph. Don’t forget about Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin. The Lions D has not played well and should give up a lot of points to the Vikings. Because of that, Stafford will have to come out firing. I’m expecting a high-scoring game as both teams should score over 20 points and I give a slight lean on the Vikings (+4.5) since I give them about a 40% chance of winning this game outright. Last year when they played in Detroit, the final score was 34-28 and that was when the Vikings were a much worse team than they are this year and were without the services of Adrian Peterson. If the Vikings lose this game, I’m sure it will be by less than 11 points. Pick a final score here: 31-20, 35-24, 24-20, 27-20, 28-17, 23-20 — they’re all winners. I think the Lions pull off a win in a tight one with a margin of victory of 3-4 points. Pad the line with an extra 7 points on the Vikings and take the over.

Thank you and good luck.

Which game is the best game to take in week 4?

  • Falcons (-7) over Panthers (28%, 14 Votes)
  • Patriots (-4) over Bills (26%, 13 Votes)
  • Cardinals (-6) over Dolphins (22%, 11 Votes)
  • Packers (-7.5) over Saints (10%, 5 Votes)
  • Broncos (-6.5) over Raiders (8%, 4 Votes)
  • Other (6%, 3 Votes)

Total Voters: 50

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