Football Picks Against the Spread

Andrew Luck to throw darts all over Duke.

Here are a few shots in the dark for the NCAA week 2 action. I’m not going to pretend I did a ton of quality research into these picks, but let’s put a few picks up on the board and see how they play out. NFL is my forte, not NCAA. However, I want to put some picks up for college football to test my skills before putting up big wages on the action. I don’t like to make any big college plays until week 3 when I can truly evaluate teams. Of the picks, I’m fairly confident in Stanford, California, and Iowa.

Do your own due diligence on the games before taking any picks. I’m siding with mostly road favorites, which I don’t like to do, but I don’t see the games coming out any other way. I’ll also see if our college football guru, Brandon, will be back for another season. Don’t forget to check out our pick ’em league. Sign up before Sunday.

Stanford -20.5 over DUKE — I loved Stanford last week and they rolled 57-3. Duke doesn’t have the offense to hang with Stanford and their defense surrenders a lot of points.

Iowa -6.5 over IOWA STATE — Iowa’s tough D should shut down Iowa State while the Iowa offense gets the job done.

California -6.5 over COLORADO — California looked good against a decent Fresno State squad last week while Colorado came out flat against Hawaii. Colorado has questions on D. Look for Cal to roll.

TCU +1 over AIR FORCE and OVER 50 — Air Force has a quality team. TCU almost came back to beat Baylor last week, but ended up falling short …

Glad to be back on the football scene, definitely the best time of the year for sports in my opinion.

Brock Osweiler threw for 262 yards with a 71.8 completion percentage in week one.

I am typing this article up at 5:04 pm ET and currently the line we have for this game is Arizona State giving 10 to Missouri. The line opened up at seven and has now bounced to ten. When it was at seven I loved the Arizona State pick, but now that it’s ten, ehhh I think I’m going to lay off betting on the spread. Instead, I see a lock in the under. The obvious reason behind this pick is due to the fact that yes, Missouri did only put up ten points against the MAC Miami Redhawks. Missouri just outgained the Redhawks getting 291 yards of offense compared to Miami’s 270.

Then there are the number of injuries for Arizona State. Cornerback Omar Bolden, linebacker Brandon Magee, and wide receiver T.J. Simpsons are just a few of the key injuries racked up on their sideline. Missouri also has Jacquies Smith and Will Ebner out for them who are two key players.

The under has hit in six of Missouri’s last seven games. The under has hit in four of Missouri’s last five road games. The under has hit in nine of Arizona State’s last eleven non-conference games.

I like the under in this one, seems a lock.

Prediction: Missouri 17 – Arizona State 24

Play: Under 52.5…

Question:

I’m starting off my survivor pool. With Peyton Manning out, everyone and their mother are taking the Houston Texans at home over the Indianapolis Colts. I have high expectations for the Texans this year and may want to save that pick for later in the year. The other game I was thinking of taking is the Arizona Cardinals over the Carolina Panthers. Last year the Panthers were the worst team in the league and I don’t expect a whole lot from Cam Newton in his rookie debut. His preseason has been pretty lackluster. Should I go with the Cardinals and Texans this week?

Answer:

The safer pick is definitely the Texans who should roll over the Colts who don’t have a QB now that Manning is out. However, I can understand trying to safe the Texans for later in the year. With that said, there could never be a better opportunity to take the Cardinals this year than this week. It’ll be easy to advance to week 2 and keep all of your strong teams for later weeks. Good luck this week.

Let’s hear from you. Comment below!…

Last night we opened the NFL season with an incredible game between the Packers and Saints. What a game. Both QBs threw for over 300 yards and 3 TDs, while we saw some razzle dazzle from both the Packers and Saints special teams. What a pick up Darren Sproles was for the Saints, he’s making fantasy owners very happy. Jordy Nelson was the star in this one for the Packers (other than Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings of course) with 6 receptions for 77 yards and a TD.

It was good to see some old names in the pick ’em league.  2009 Champion DeezNuts is back. Memphis Gangsters is also back. I’m sure I’m leaving a few people out, but those two are legends. It’s not too late to sign up! Winner gets  free NFL Shop t-shit.  The league ID is 63470 an the password is thepassrush. There’s still 255 more regular season games.

In a somewhat surprising move, nearly a majority of people in the pick ’em league took the Saints +4.5. With a total of 26 participants, the league ended up at an even 50/50 split. In Yahoo’s consensus, 84% were siding with the Green Bay, although I believe that takes into consideration leagues that are both straight up and against the spread, skewing the data.

In the upcoming games, the Yahoo consensus is favoring the following teams in order: (1) New England; (2) Arizona; (3) Philadelphia; (4) Kansas City; and (5) Cleveland. I am high on the Patriots, Chiefs, and Falcons this Sunday, which you can read in my week 1 write-up.

I am warning right now, do not bet on the Eagles -5 against the Rams. I am an Eagles fan and very …

Question: Which RBs should I start in week 1?

Chris Johnson @ JAX
DeAngelo Williams @ ARI
Shonn Greene @ DAL

I am leaning towards DeAngelo and Shonn Greene because I am not sure how many touches Chris Johnson will get in his first week back. Tennessee’s coach also said that Johnson will be limited in his first game back.

Best answer:

Why would Chris Johnson be limited? I would play him since Jacksonville’s defense if atrocious. In the second RB spot, I would go with DeAngelo Williams since Arizona has a poor run defense and the Cowboys run defense should be pretty solid this year. Bench Greene this week.

Give your answer to this question below!…

Gentlemen,

With the NFL season kicking off tonight, I’ve renewed THEPASSRUSH.COM Pick ‘Em League for 2011. All members from last year should have gotten an email. If you want to track my picks and compete against me and other readers of the site, please sign up here. It’s free and prizes are on the line. The league ID and password are below.

The home page for the Yahoo Pick ‘Em is as follows:

http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem

To sign up, you’ll need the league ID and password.

League ID: 63470
Password: thepassrush

As always, the winner will get a free NFL Shop custom t-shirt with the team and player name of his choice. Could we officially crown the 2010 Champion? Where’s he at? Leave a comment.

Good luck gentlemen!…

Question: Who should I start in Week 1?

Mark Sanchez vs. DAL or Kyle Orton vs. OAK?

Felix Jones vs. NYJ or Fred Jackson vs. KC?

Answer:

Tough luck on your QB situation. How did you fail to draft a quality QB. You should be in luck week 1 with Kyle Orton vs. Oakland ince Oakland’s secondary is rather week.

Fred Jackson against KC is the choice there. Fred Jackson is the featured back and I like his ability to both run an receive. While Felix Jones has the same capabilities, he doesn’t have the featured role. Jones will be limited in his carries and the Jets are stellar against the run.

Go with Kyle Orton and Fred Jackson.

Give your answer to this question below!…