Football Picks Against the Spread

Will Eric Berry be the defensive player of the year?

I am back with another season of NFL picks and predictions against the spread. We started the beginning of last season strong and then had our best days around Thanksgiving time. Rather than previewing every single game in the NFL, I’m going to focus on the top 3-5 games that I like. I apologize for the inconsistency in weekly postings towards the final stretch of the season last year, but work caught up with me. By focusing on just the top games of the week, I’ll be able to maintain the discipline for timely weekly write-ups. I also wanted to plug my NFL Fantasy Cheat Sheet — feel free to use that in your draft to check rankings and stats. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the action.

Check out my FINAL WORD for all applicable addendums and don’t forget to sign up for our PICK ‘EM LEAGUE.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6.5)

I love betting against bad teams and the 6.5 spread looks like a good play here since I’m sure it will move to Cardinals -7 by kickoff. You have Cam Newton’s NFL debut on the road. Rookies are prone to make mistakes in their debut and I think that’s what you see here. Newton completed just 42% of his passes in the preseason and has thrown just 1 TD. His yards per attempt is a dismal 5.3.  That comes out to a 64.9 QB rating. Compare that to Kolb’s 55% completion percentage, 8.9 YPA, and 95.3 QB rating. The Carinals were also the 1st-ranked overall and passing offense in the preseason if you want to put any weight into preseason numbers. The Panthers …

And this was only his rookie season… perhaps the best safety since Brian Dawkins.

…

A good exercise to utilize before placing any bets on games is to write down what you think the line will be before seeing them. This will help you spot some value plays or help you think if you’re giving up too many points to pick a certain team. Based on some preliminary looks, I like Atlanta over Chicago, Kansas City over Buffalo, Arizona over Carolina, and New England over Miami.

One game where I was way off was New York Giants @ Washington. I thought Vegas may put the Redskins at 2.5-point favorites since they’re at home. New York Giants have a better team on paper, but I still like getting +3 at home in the opener. I love the way the Redskins running game was looking in the preseason and Rex Grossman looked great in his preseason start against the Steelers.

New Orlenas @ Green Bay
Expected Line: Green Bay -3
Actual Line:  Green Bay -4

Philadelphia @ St. Louis
Expected Line: Philadelphia -4
Actual Line: Philadelphia -4.5

Atlanta @ Chicago
Expected Line: Atlanta -3.5
Actual Line: Atlanta -3

Cincinnati @ Cleveland
Expected Line: Cleveland -4
Actual Line: Cleveland -6.5

Buffalo @ Kansas City
Expected Line: Kansas City -7
Actual Line: Kansas City -6.5

Detroit @ Tampa Bay
Expected Line: Tampa Bay -1.5
Actual Line: Tampa Bay -1.5

Tennessee @ Jacksonville
Expected Line: Jacksonville -1
Actual Line: Jacksonville -3

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
Expected Line: Pittsburgh -1
Actual Line:  Baltimore -2.5

Indianapolis @ Houston
Expected Line: Houston -4.5
Actual Line: Houston -6

Carolina @ Arizona
Expected Line: Arizona -7
Actual Line: Arizona -6.5

Minnesota @ San Diego
Expected Line: San Diego -7.5
Actual Line: San Diego -9

Seattle @ San Francisco
Expected Line: San Francisco -4.5
Actual Line:  San …

Look for some routes in Week 1 CFB action.

Rather than getting into the razzle-dazzle of breaking down the high-profile week 1 college football games. Let’s throw a few picks up on the board and see how these do. Now, I’m merely trusting my gut here with these picks. Before taking any of these games, please do your own due diligence. I generally don’t like high spreads, but if there’s any time to lay big points in anticipation of a route, it’s week 1 of college football. I have all home team powerhouse programs on the board against the jobbers of college football, which I like.

AUBURN (-24) over Utah State — I smell a good ole’ fashion route to the tune of 40+ points to 3-10. You have to get the home fans into the season after winning the National Championship. Look for Auburn to impress.

MISSOURI (-20) over Miami-Ohio — I like it, don’t love it. Miami-Ohio isn’t a shabby team in the Mid-American Conference, but Missouri should win in a beatdown.

NEBRASKA (-36) over Tennessee-Chattanooga — Week 1 is the time to pick up routings. You think Tennessee-Chattanooga is going to score against the Nebraska defense? QB Taylor Martinez is an absolute stud. He’ll be ready to become a household name this season. I’m thinking this one ends 45-0.

MICHIGAN (-14) over Western Michigan — Denard Robinson was insane his freshman year. I want to see some follow up in his sophomore year. Nice start to week 1 with a Michigan matchup at home.

NOTRE DAME (-10) over Southern Florida — ND returning 17 starters. A lot of people are raving about this Notre Dame team this year. The ND defense should be solid. On offense, you …

Will LSU's defensive line shut down LeMichael James?

NO. 4 LSU TIGERS VS. NO. 3 OREGON DUCKS (-3)

This game is riddled with suspensions on both sides. The key suspensions are LSU QB Jordan Jefferson and Oregon CB Cliff Harris. However, the loss of Jefferson is not a major blow to LSU. The LSU offense was able to do just fine last season despite Jefferson’s subpar 7 TD and 10 INTs last season while completing just 56% of his passes. LSU beat both Florida and Alabama in the regular season. His backup is Jarrett Lee, who some consider a better pocket passer than Jefferson, and Lee took a few snaps almost every game last season. Lee is prone to make critical mistakes though, so expect LSU to heavily rely on their running game led by sophomore RB Spencer Ware.

The key matchup this game is the LSU defensive line vs. the Oregon offensive line, who will be trying to move the ball with Heisman hopeful LeMichael James. With three new starters on the Oregon defensive line, LSU may win that matchup and dominate the trenches. The LSU defense was ranked 13th in the nation last season.

Although LSU may win the battle at the scrimmage, Oregon can swing LeMichael James out on screens, wheel routes, swing routes, work some play action, and have returning QB Darron Thomas hit his speedy receivers. Thomas completed 61% of his passes for 2,881 yards, 30 TDs and 9 INTs last season.The Oregon defense isn’t too shabby either. They finished 34th in the nation last season and will be returning 5 starters. However, they’ll be without key cornerback and playmaking returnman Cliff Harris.

This is a great game to kickoff the college football season in …

TCU HORNED FROGS (-3.5) @ BAYLOR BEARS

The player to watch this game is Baylor QB Robert Griffin III (see highlights after the jump). Griffin threw for 3,501 yards and 22 TDs last year, completed 67% of his passes, finished third in passer rating in the Big 12 last year, and added 635 yards and 8 TDs with his legs last season. That helped Baylor become the 13th-ranked offense last season. That type of play will have him on the early Heisman watch and he also has the benefit of five returning receivers.  We’ll see how RB3 performs against a TCU team that has not lost a regular season game since 2008. But with QB Andy Dalton and half of TCU’s starters gone, is TCU the same team they were in years past?

They have a new QB to replace Andy Dalton. TCU’s new QB is Casey Pachall. Pachall is entering his sophomore year and was a top high-school talent. Pachall will have plenty of help in the backfield with Ed Wesley, Matthew Tucker and Waymon James returning. The three combined for 2,300 yards and 23 TDs last season. However, TCU returns just one lineman. On the defensive side, TCU had a top-notch defense last year that surrendered just 12 PPG and 228 YPG. Although TCU has lost 6 starters, they’ve held onto LB Tank Karter, the Mountain West defensive player of the year, and have plenty other key players back on D.

Although Baylor has an impressive QB, their defense is extremely poor — ranked 104 last year and giving up 435 YPG and 30.5 PPG. That poor unit also lost a lot players. Baylor finished last year 7-6. In their matchup last year, TCU destroyed Baylor …

Question: I need some help making my week 5 survivor pool pick.

So far this season I’ve used picks on the Giants, Packers, Patriots, and Jets.

I’m thinking of taking the New Orleans Saints (away) over the Arizona Cardinals or the San Diego Chargers (away) over the Oakland Raiders.

I want to get your thoughts on the picks.

Answer:

You’ve already used your picks on some really good teams so it will be hard to make your picks throughout the rest of the year, but the Saints over the Cardinals is an easy pick to make in week 5.

What I do is make my picks for the whole season at the beginning so I can strategically pick which teams I want to take each week and save the stronger teams for later in the season.

Add your own answer in the comments!…