Football Picks Against the Spread

The NFL season is almost upon us. I’m sure all off you are playing Madden non-stop while boozing or indulging in other vice activities. I stumbled upon some interesting over/under team win props to consider before the season kicks off. Below are some of the props that stuck out to me.

1.) Detroit Lions – Over/Under 7.5 wins – Over (-190)  – I am high on the Lions this year.  I believe they’ll have a top 5 offense provided that Matthew Stafford avoids injury. With Calvin Johnson, Jahvid Best and Brandon Pettigrew, this team will put up points. I’ll also be curious to see how WR Titus Young from Boise State has an impact on this team. The next DeSean Jackson anyone? Although the preseason doesn’t mean squat, the Lions are the 1st ranked overall offense and passing offense.  I can almost guarantee that the Lions will not finish the season with a losing record this year.  Their defense will also be legit this year too. In the top 50% of NFL defenses for sure. They drafted DT Fairley to help out Suh on the line, added DE Vanden Bosch last year, and then his teammate LB Tulloch from that tough Titans D. Some people are even predicting that they’ll win the NFC and stamp their tickets to the Super Bowl.

The Schedule: The Lions schedule does not look too bad. Assuming the Lions split games with the Bears, Vikings, and maybe Packers, we’re looking at about a 3-3 conference record. They may even sweep the Vikings and Bears. You can then count on wins against Carolina, Oakland, San Francisco, and Denver.  Now that we’re at 7 wins, the Lions should be able to pull one or two off against …

Football is over and most of you can’t wait for the season to start again, but who knows we may not see the NFL again till 2012.

While you are waiting, check out our sister sites thetripledouble.com and theonetimer.com. Things are starting to heat up on the hardwood. King and I have been posting NBA and College plays on a daily basis and that should continue until the season ends. I have been working this season on designing  a new accurate computer program that predicts college games against the spread.  While there are several computer or simulation systems out there, very few are specifically tailored to determine the expected spread and then compare the actually line and then produce a winning selection.  The top plays of the SMART BET COMPUTER has prodcued considerable profits, but more impressively t he SMART BET COMPUTER has also produced a daily profit based on selections for every game on the card, currently at about a 60% success rate.

If you are a hockey fan, I have convinced a Vegas local to give me his daily NHL picks.  His first post was terrible, but I have been following his picks for a while now and he consistently produces a profit.

**Keep your bets SMART.…

Excuse me for my extended hiatus during the final stretch of the season. What happened? Work happened. Thankfully Brandon’s SMART BET COLLEGE BOWL SPECIAL went an insane 9-2. Therefore, if you have been following our picks this season, you banked a ton of coin so be thankful.

What is the future of THE PASS RUSH? Well there is one final game in the football season until we’re left with a baseball season that is 60 games deep into the season with 102 games left while we’re left pulling our hair out until training camp begins. Will we be back for a fourth season of football picks and analysis? Only time will tell. Onto my thoughts for the Super Bowl.

When I handicapped this game before looking at the spread, I put the Steelers at 3-point favorites. However, the Steelers come into this one as 2.5-point underdogs. I found that surprising, but this isn’t a matter of who is right, but who the public is rooting for.

I don’t know about you, but I’m sick of the Steelers. This is their third Super Bowl appearance in the last six years. The thought of the Steelers in another Super Bowl makes me want to vomit. I am sure that everyone who doesn’t live in the western half of Pennsylvania will be Packers fans on Sunday. Everyone and their mother will be throwing money on the Packers hoping they will somehow top the Steelers regardless of whether they believe with cold-hard conviction that they will win. They want to put money on the Packers just to give themselves a reason to get worked up about this game.

I think the Packers can win, but I don’t think they should be favored here. …

It’s a good time to be a NFL fan as you not only are able to watch your favorite team in action each week but now it’s easier than ever to place a wager as well to make it more interesting. In the past you’d have to know a bookie and deal with all sorts of shadiness and uncertainty; that’s no longer the case with tons of reputable, trusted online sportsbooks that let you wager on NFL games as well as other sports. Whether you’re a Packers, Saints, or Bears fans, you can bet on your favorite team with just a few clicks of the mouse.

As far as choosing a sportsbook, there are plenty out there, and most also offer you the chance to play online blackjack, compete in poker tournaments, and enjoy other casino games as well. Once you get your NFL bets in, playing a little poker while you watch the games can be a perfect way to spend the afternoon. Many people worry about the safety and security of online sportsbook and other gambling sites but online wagering has become a very big business, to the point that many companies are large, reputable businesses that trade on public stock exchanges, so they definitely aren’t shady, fly-by-night operations.

One nice bonus of signing up at an online sportsbook is exactly that: a bonus. Many sportsbooks offer free cash bonuses for players that create an account, and you can often get a sportsbook bonus as well as a poker or casino bonus, which lets you enjoy the best online roulette, craps, and video poker odds, as the extra bonus money potentially gives you an edge that you’ll never find in a Las Vegas casino, where you’re …

Jets vs PITTSBURGH (-3.5) for 1 unit.

First off you have to give pretty big props for the Jets to even be in this game.  Winning on the road verse the Colts and the Patriots during the playoffs on back-to-back weeks is an impressive task by any football team.  However, there are several key reasons I believe the Jets come up short on Sunday in Pittsburgh.

(1) Lack of Motivation: I know it doesn’t take a whole lot to get these teams ready to play, but contrary to the previous two games the Jets have played the motivational edge leans towards Pittsburgh.  The flamboyant Jets had reason to trash talk and be highly motivated when going into Indianapolis two weeks ago as Indy had eliminated the Jets last year in the playoffs, so you knew they would be fired up to play in Indy.  The same motivation was there in New England where the Jets had already been blown out once this year; plus you add in all the trash talking that went on through the media and you knew the Jets were going to come to play.  However, this Sunday, the opposite is true. The Jets already beat Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh earlier this year and Rex seems to have a bit more respect for the Steelers and has kept his comments to a minimum so far this week.  Teams just don’t beat other NFL teams twice in the same year that often, especially when there is so much riding on the game (as evident by the Jets domination of the Patriots last week).  I just think the Jets need that in your face, high intensity, over the top motivation to play their best. Without that extra edge we …

Question: Should I start Tom Brady or Joe Flacco?

Before you say “play Tom Brady every week,” let me explain:

The Patriots have already clinched their division and #1 seed and they might end up limiting their starting line-up meaning Tom Brady might not be doing much and he’s projected to get very few points.

On the other hand, I have Joe Flacco on my bench going up against Cincinnati.

David Garrard is also on waivers. I think Gerrard might have a big game as they are going against the terrible Houston Texans defense and the Jaguars have a possible playoff chance to fight for. Garrard has been doing exceptionally well these last few weeks. Should I pick him and start him? The last time Garrard played Houston he put up 28 points.

Answer:

Brady is probably a bad start this week, as the Pats are locked into their playoff spot.Garrard may be the way to go this week as he has something to play for and has a good matchup. Brady play a max of a half or maybe just a few drives.

Know better? Leave your own answer in the comments!…

Question: Who should I play in the flex for week 16?

My team has made it to the Championship! Standard league (No PPR).

Here is my current lineup:

QB — Peyton Manning
WR — DeSean Jackson
WR — Hakeem Nicks
RB — Steven Jackson
RB — LeGarrette Blount
TE — Jason Witten
FLEX — NEED YOUR HELP!
K — David Akers
Def — Eagles D

Help me choose my flex from the following:

Felix Jones @ ARI — This who I’m leaning towards with such a great matchup against a bad Arizon defense. But I’ve read he missed practice Tuesday and Wednesday with a bruised shin. Does anyone know if this injury is srious? How big of a threat are Choice and Barber to his carries this week? Plus Felix is great as receiver out of the backfield–better than those other two.

OR

Anquan Boldin @ CLE — His inconsistency has been killing me lately. I know the guy is an absolute beast of a player, but he’s being out produced by Mason! He tore up the Browns early in the season, ironically his biggest fantasy output of the year believe it or not.

The other “options” I have on my bench include the following:

Brian Westbrook @ STL (Dixon might be out so he may be the lone workhorse RB v. Rams)

Tashard Choice @ ARI (If Felix can’t go he’s my favorite option due to workload/redzone looks)

Mario Manningham @ GB (Coming off a good performance last week–tougher GB matchup)

Donald Brown @ OAK (had a breakout game last week–if only Colts RB he could play good vs a bad Raiders Run D)

Who is my best bet out of this group? Who do you think I should …