Football Picks Against the Spread

It was an insanely busy week so sorry for the quick write up today.

• CINCINNATI (-5) over Buffalo — 3/5 — The Bengals at home over the Bills.  Easy call here. Bengals have to snap that losing streak at home over a weak Bills team.
• DALLAS (-6.5) over Detroit — 3/5 — Detroit struggled on the road against the Bills. Dallas played inspired last week with Wade Phillips gone.
• Arizona (+9) over KANSAS CITY — 2/5 — Chiefs have been solid at home and the Cardinals have been awful, but this is too many points for me.
• NEW YORK JETS (-6.5) over Houston — 3/5 — Houston 28 PPG allowed. NYJ 16 PPG allowed (13 PPG allowed at home). Public likes the points here though.
• Cleveland (+1.5) over JACKSONVILLE — 3/5 — Can I say it? The Browns are for real? Maybe? Colt McCoy is an absolute stud!
• PITTSBURGH (-8) over Oakland — 2/5 — Don’t like high spreads. Oakland beat Steelers in their house last year. Has to be a revenge game for the Steelers. Steelers need this one to fend off the Ravens and stay on top of the AFC.
• Baltimore (-10) over CAROLINA — 4/5 — I love betting against the Panthers. It’s made me a ton of coin this year. Carolina scores 10 points tops. Baltimore will score at least 21. Despite the high spread, I’ll take my chances betting against them again.
• Green Bay (-3) over MINNESOTA — 4/5 — The Vikings are garbage. Take the Packers.
• TENNESSEE (-7) over Washington — 3/5 — Washington may be due for a rebound, but so are the Titans who lost to the Dolphins last week.
• Atlanta (-3) over ST. LOUIS — 4/5 — Wow! Vegas is quite

Sorry this post is late, but there wasn’t not much on the card this weekend that I really liked, but I was able to key in on 3 games one of which is my third GAME OF THE YEAR! 2-0 GOY Record this year.

GAME OF THE YEAR:

ARMY (+8.5) VS Notre Dame: This game is being played at Yankee stadium so there isn’t really a home field advantage for anyone in this game as ND fans travel well, but NY Stadium is closer to Army’s campus.  Notre Dame is coming off an absolutely huge win last week as they stomped Utah. I really wasn’t surprised by that game as ND was at home off a bye week with plenty of time to prepare and Utah’s season and any hopes of playing in a BCS game had already been crushed the previous week by TCU. While I do give ND credit for stepping up and playing a great game, they still benefitted from the spot in the schedule.  Now ND has to forget the biggest win the year and lay more than a touchdown in a big rivarly game. Army runs a great triple option that is going to give the ND defense fits all day long.  ND is weak agains the option as shown by their crushing defeat verse Navy at home earlier this year. I don’t expect things to be a whole different.  I have Army winning outright 24-20. 

NC STATE (+2.5) at North Carolina for 1 unit.

Florida State at MARYLAND (+4) for 1 unit.

Good Luck…

Thursday got here fast. Yesterday it felt like I was watching Michael Vick score 6 TDs against the Redskins. What a glorious win!

CHICAGO BEARS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS (-1.5)

The Dolphins are favored by just 1.5 due to Tyler Thigpen taking snaps for the Dolphins. Thigpen came in to replace the injured Pennington and Henne last week and threw 64 yards and a TD after completing 4 of his 6 passes. The Dolphins whooped the Titans last week 29-17. The Bears are also coming off an impressive home win over the Vikings 27-13.

The public is split evenly on this spread. 52% are taking the Bears while 48% is on the Dolphins. The Covers.com consensus is sticking with the home team though, picking the Dolphins with 53% of the votes, while Covers’ experts are all on the Dolphins, getting 10/12 expert picks.

Both offenses are averaging 19 PPG, but the Bears have had the better D, giving up 16 PPG compared to the Dolphins 21 PPG allowed. On paper, this looks likes a pretty even matchup. Dolphins have been a better team to bet on this year, going 6-3 ATS compared to the Bears 4-4-1 records ATS.

I’m going to stick with the home team here. The bottom line is that the home team has the advantage here on the short week. Falcons helped prove that against the Ravens last week. The Bears barely beat the Bills in their last road game. They scored just 23 points against the horrendous Panthers and were held to the 3 points against the Giants on the road. The Bears don’t score much. However, with Thigpen taking snaps for the Dolphins, their offense will be limited, so they’ll have to rely on their running …

Sunday was victorious for me as I picked the right game and avoided the bad ones. My top play this week was Bucs -6.5 over the Panthers. That was an easy winner. Thanks for the gift sportsbooks. I hope you guys took that one as well. My next biggest play was Colts/Over 40 which pushed. Good thing I teased it rather than taking Colts -7 since the Colts won 23-17 with a late Bengals TD getting them in the money. My last play was taking a chance on the Titans 1st-ranked offense on the road against the Dolphins, which didn’t hit. Thanks to my top play in the Bucs though, the week was a grand success.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3) @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

I’m an Eagles fan, so all of this advice is 100% bias. I’m extremely confident that the Eagles will win tonight. Now that Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson are back in the Eagles lineup, their offense is clicking on all cylinders. McNabb got the victory over the Eagles in the first meeting, 17-12. However, Michael Vick was injured in the 1st quarter and that sorry excuse for a quarterback “Captain Checkdown” Kevin Kolb had to come in and throw nothing but 5-yard passes to the tight end or fullback.

However, one thing to worry about is the Redskins being at home off the bye week. It’s really a tremendous strategy betting solely on that factor. Browns beat the Patriots at home off the bye week. It was the sole reason I picked the Jaguars over the Texans this week. It also worked out for those who used that reason to pick the Broncos over the Chiefs this week. You know it’s never a great idea to pick against …

After careful scrutinizing the card for this Saturday I are only a couple  plays that I am throwin my own money at, as I just see a lot of games that could easily go either way, I will indicate those plays with unit values.  Some of the games I do like require some pretty big dogs to make some pretty big steps forward to be competitive enough to hang around and get the cover.

The Plays for Saturday Nov 13th:

Texas A&M at Baylor (+3) for 1 unit.  My Prediction Baylor 30-28.  A&M coming in off a huge win now go on the road as a favorite. Baylor coming off a bad loss heads back home and takes on a very weak pass defense that they should be able to clear advantage of throughout the game. Baylor wins outright.

Penn State vs Ohio State (-18) for 1 unit. My prediction Ohio State 35-14. PSU looked terrible last week, but played inspired ball in the second half to make sure Joe Pa got his 400th win, but if you watched much of that game it was clear Northwestern was better and should have won. OSU is unbeatable at home and still has an outside chance at the BCS Championship game so look for them to come in really focused and win going away.

BYU at Colorado State (+6.5) for 1 unit. My Prediction CSU 24-20. The key to this game for me is that BYU is 0-3 SU on the road this year and there is no way I can lay points with any team who has played that bad on the road. Senior day at CSU as well. CSU is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS at home. Take the points.…

“This series is brought to you by T.G.I. Friday’s, where every Sunday means Food, Fun & Football! Hut, hut, hut!”

We hit the trifecta of picks yesterday.  No matter what you took, you were golden. Whether that was the Falcons -1, Over 43.5, or the teaser, you landed in the money. And yes, I picked a game against the “public” and delivered a winner.

DETROIT LIONS @ BUFFALO BILLS (-2.5)

I’m all over the Lions in this one. The Bills are still winless.  If the spread is Bills -2.5, it would mean the spread would practically be a pick ’em game if it was in Detroit (home field is worth roughly 3 points). Terrible luck for the Lions though. After blowing a 10-point lead to the Jets at home, they may now lose Matthew Stafford for the rest of the year. Even with Shaun Hill, I think he can beat the 0-8 Bills, who give up 29 PPG (24 PPG in their last 3). Looks like the books think the Bills are due for their first win this season. Maybe they are, but I doubt it. Bills rank 32nd against the run, giving up 178 yards per game and that Jahvid Best kid is pretty good.

Prediction: Lions 24 – Bills 17

Pick Against the Spread: Lions +2.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

NEW YORK JETS (-3) @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

After the Browns have pulled two big upsets, I’m not going to touch this game. Colt McCoy is an absolutely stud, beating both Drew Brees and Tom Brady in his first two NFL games. I’m sure he’s thinking, “bring on the Colts.” However, this will be his toughest defensive test this season. Revis has to be due to pick off the …

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ ATLANTA FALCONS (-1)

Thursday Night Football starts tonight and we are treated to a great game between the Ravens and Falcons. Both teams are 6-2, both teams are 4-0 at home and 2-2 on the road, and both have been mediocre against the spread covering 4 of their 8 games this season. The Falcons have the offensive edge, while the Ravens have the defensive edge.

This is a tough game to call. The Falcons average 30 PPG at home while the Ravens average just 14 PPG on the road. However, the Falcons defense has been slipping up the last few weeks due to injuries. The Falcons are averaging 28 PPG allowed in their last 3 while their season average is just 19 PPG. Baltimore is finally showing some offensive production, averaging 27 PPG in their last 3, which matches the Falcons average.

The public is favoring the Ravens, who are getting 63% of the action against the spread. I just can’t make up my mind about this pick. I am torn 50/50. I love Atlanta’s offense and the fact that they’re at home, but I also think that the Ravens are a better all-around team. The Ravens haven’t really shown me much on the road though, so I’m not ready to jump on them this game.

With the over/under at 43.5, I would favor the over. The Falcons score a lot, especially at home. The Ravens will likely also score their fair share of points against the Falcons struggling defense.  The over 36.5 looks like an extremely safe play if you want to add the points to the Falcons (+6) or Ravens (+8).

Prediction: Falcons 27 – Ravens 24

Picks Against the Spread: Falcons -1 (Confidence: 2/5), …