Football Picks Against the Spread

Question: It’s week 14 and I’m in the playoffs. I just need one player to put into the FLEX position.

Pick one of the following players to start in my FLEX this week:

1.) Michael Turner (Q) vs. NO
2.) Kenny Britt vs. STL
3.) Steve Smith (NYG) vs. PHI
4.) Vincent Jackson @ DAL

Who would you pick and why?

Answer:

I think you need to wait a bit to find out Michael Turner’s status. If he plays, he’s a great start, because the Saints defense is very banged up and this game isn’t a lock for New Orleans. Meanwhile, it’s a must win for the Falcons if they want to have a shot at making the plays. If Turner is in the lineup for the Falcons, I would definitely start him.

The other no brainer is Kenny Britt. The Cardinals may have lost Otugwe for the rest of the season and their defense is terrible

Know better? Leave your own answer in the comments!…

The Bowl Season is upon us and I will be releasing as many picks as possible or at least my leans for as many games as I think have some value.  In general, you can be very successful simply betting the underdogs based on the past 25 years of bowl games.

Washington (+14) vs Nebraska for 2 units: The primary reason I am in love with this game is based on motivation.  Very rarely in college football do you get in season revenge game and that is exactly what you have here.  Nebraska humiliated Washington early this year on their own turf so you know Washington will come in completely fired up and focused.  Secondly, Washington made this bowl game by sheer determination and motivation to play in a bowl game so they will be very excited to be playing in this game.  Nebraska, on the other hand, has no motivation for playing in this game.  They are coming off a very tough loss to Oklahoma in which they could have been playing in a BCS game and now are playing in the meaningless Holiday Bowl.  In addition, the QB situation is totally up in the air for Nebraska.  So unless they resolve their team conflict issues, injuries, and find some motivation on the way to San Diego my money will be on Washington and the points.  Final Wash 19 Neb 7. WINNER

Notre Dame (+3) vs Miami for 2 units. We are back to the key ingredient of any bowl game here as we must focus on motivation.  ND has played very motivated after the death of the camera guy and the loss to Tulsa at home.  Whatever Brian Kelly did in that bye week really put this team …

Been swamped this week.  Going to post quick picks. Some extra analysis may possibly be updated Saturday.

PHILADELPHIA (-8.5) over Houston — I’m an Eagles fan so I’m forced to pick them. Ridiculously high spread against a good offense, but Eagles offense should get clicking again against the Texans poor defense.

Washington (+7) over NEW YORK GIANTS — Division games are tough. Especially when Giants are missing their WRs (Smith and Nicks are out).

Jacksonville over TENNESSEE — First impression. Subject to change.

Cleveland (+4.5) over MIAMI — Miami rebounds against Oakland after getting shut out by Bears. Have to stick with those Browns though! Not a high confidence play though.

Chicago (-4.5) over DETROIT — Chicago’s D is legit!

KANSAS CITY (-9.5) over Denver — Wow, Kansas City is for real? Too many points to take.

GREEN BAY (-9.5) over San Fransisco — Too many points for me to take, but I have to stick with the Pack at home.

MINNESOTA (-5.5) over Buffalo — Now that the Vikings got a W, they should be able to beat the Bills at home though, right? Bills took the Steelers to OT after killing the Bengals. What is going on?

New Orleans (-6.5) over CINCINNATI — This is one of my favorite plays this week.  Like I’ve been saying, New Orleans will get hot in the 2nd half of the season.

SAN DIEGO (-13) over Oakland — Oakland is in a funk again and San Diego’s offense has been clicking. Chargers need to keep pace with the Chiefs who have an easy game at home.

SEATTLE (-6) over Panthers — I love betting against the Panthers, so this game looks like it could be a taker.

INDIANAPOLIS (-5) over Dallas — …

Question: Which WR should I pick in week 13?

I need one of these to start this week, so who do you think will put up more points?

Anthony Gonzalez vs. CLE
Santonio Holmes vs. NE

Who would you put in the WR3 spot?

Answer:

I would go with Anthony Gonzalez since he’s Peyton Manning’ s 3rd down target and the Bears pass defense against slot receivers really isn’t all that great. Holmes has a tougher matchup against the Patriots so I would go with Gonzales!

Know better? Leave your own answer in the comments!…

It’s Thanksgiving and it’s a busy week ahead so I’m going to throw up some picks, quick-hit style. Home teams in CAPS. You can catch our Thanksgiving Special here.

WASHINGTON (-1) over Minnesota – 3/5 – I stand by the fact that Minnesota is garbage so I’ll stick with the low spread on a home team that rebounded nicely from their Eagles loss with a road win over Tennessee. Redskins win 23-17.

Pittsburgh (-6) over BUFFALO – 4/5 – I’ll write last week’s win by the Bills off as a fluke. As competitive as the AFC is, the Steelers need this win to stay at the top of the division. If the Steelers lose and move to 7-4, that makes them the 6th ranked team in the AFC since the Pats or Jets at 8-2 would gain the other wild card in the AFC. Expect the Steelers to come out with all guns blazing and treat this like a playoff game.  Steelers win 24-6.

CLEVELAND (-10) over Carolina – 3.5/5 – Carolina is garbage, I’ll continue to bet against them until they show me they can cover. I would look at other games first before taking this one though. Browns win 24-10.

HOUSTON (-6.5) over Tennessee – 1/5 – With that high-powered offense, the Texans are due rebound after suffering a tough loss to the Jets. With the Texans questionable D, not worthy at all of consideration against Chris Johnson. Pass on it. Houston wins 27-20.

Jacksonville (+7) over NEW YORK GIANTS – 3/5 – With Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks sidelined, Giants will have to rely on Mario Manningham and some dude off the practice squad to beat the Jags. Ahmad Bradshaw will need a big game to …

This series is brought to you by T.G.I. Friday’s, where every Sunday means Food, Fun & Football! Hut, hut, hut!

This past week was glorious as yours truly hit 4/4 for his top 4 plays this past Sunday. My biggest play of the day was Raven (-10) over Panthers. Gotta love betting against the Panthers this year. That was followed by my next biggest play of day Packers (-3) over Vikings. Two-for-two at 1:00. My 4:00 play was the Falcons (-3) over the Rams. Winner there. Topped that off taking my team, Eagles (-3) over the Giants. Boo yah! Like I said, I start getting on fire around Thanksgiving. Let’s take a look into this the Thanksgiving day games.

NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) @ DETROIT LIONS

The Pats are just favored by 6.5. Really? I love to bet against the Lions, especially on Thanksgiving. Won a lot of coin taking the Packers over Detroit last year. I would understand the line if Stafford was playing, but he’s not. With Shaun Hill at QB, the Lions have lost three straight. Losing to Dallas, Buffalo, and the Jets.  Detroit has averaged 17 PPG in their last 3 games while the Pats have averaged 28 PPG.

However, I’m not as confident this time around due to the Pats defensive woes. The Pats are giving up 24 PPG and 29 PPG in their last 3. Even with Shaun Hill, players like Calvin Johnson and Jahvid Best can always explode at home if the defense forgets to show up. Tom Brady is on fire though and Danny Woodhead is playing like an absolutely stud.  Count on at least 4 TDs from the Pats and don’t expect the Lions to catch up to them. I think …

Question: Who should I start at WR in week 11?

I’m in a 3WR league. I already starting DeSean Jackson.

I need to pick two more out of the following:

Pierre Garcon @ NE-  Is a horrible pass catcher now and don’t know if he can be trusted especially with Manning’s eyes

Danny Woodhead vs. IND – He can be used as a WR/RB in my league and this could benefit since the Colts are horrible against the run.

Stevie Johnson @ CIN – Bengals have some of the best CBs in the league and managed to shut down the Colts pass attack and this might force the Bills to run the football throughout the game.

Randy Moss vs. WAS – Has a habbit of laying an egg just about every single week and now he’s up against a weak Redskins D but can I trust him?

Best answer:

Garçon and Moss should reward you. Woodhead is limited because of Green-Ellis and Bradys love of “spreading the ball” around. Stevie Johnson will only get you around 4 catches for 48 yards if you’re lucky. Wayne will almost get double cover and should open up space for Garcon. Roll the dice with Garçon and Moss.

Know better? Leave your own answer in the comments!…