Football Picks Against the Spread

Gentlemen, we are one day away from embarking on another season of football. The day is finally upon us. For the past three weeks I’ve been going through the week 1 college football spreads to see if I can strike gold early. I hate to be the bearer of bad news and inform you that I haven’t been able to spot any “must take” spreads where I can easily strike “pay dirt.” I’ll be playing these games very conservatively since I firmly place them all in “toss up” territory. Here is an overview of the games that we’ve previewed.

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WEEK 1 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD

1.) Pitt (+3.5) over Utah — Confidence 2.5/5

I like Pitt’s D and running game (Dion Lewis) in this one, but with a fresh face at QB and a long trip out West, I’m not ready to be too confident in them just yet. I’m also a Pennsylvania native and I’d be lying if I didn’t tell you that I was slightly bias in taking Pitt.

2.) South Carolina (-14) over Southern Miss

This Brandon’s pick. If you want to read more about it, you’ll have to visit the link. However, like UNC, South Carolina has some suspension issues of their own which you …

UNC has one nasty defense, but they're riddled with controversy.

I’ve done over a half dozen college football previews. I got a head start about two weeks ago looking at the Week 1 college football lines to see if there’s any games that I really like. I haven’t been able to spot any games which I would give a 4/5 rating (worthy of a nice bet), but I’m cautiously optimistic in Cincy -1.5 over Fresno State and Pitt +3.5 over Utah. I’m cautious with both teams on the road, but you’ll have to read those reports to understand what I’m seeing in those two games. I tend to be rather conservative betting on the first few weeks of football until I get a good feel for the year. You’ll also want to read Brandon’s week 1 picks as he like South Carolina -14 over Southern Miss. What I wanted to do today was preview a big Saturday Night primetime game between LSU and UNC, which takes place in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.

No. 21 LSU TIGERS VS. No. 18 NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS

The line on this one has moved from LSU -1.5 to UNC -1.5 and reports were that 80% of the bets were on LSU -1.5, but for some reason, the line was moved to UNC -1.5. The line was then taken down due the controversy going on in UNC that is going to be a major distraction for this squad.  Most of UNC’s top players are being investigated for receiving improper benefits from NFL agents. Although an official announcement has not yet been made, DT Marvin Austin and UNC’s top wideout WR Greg Little are being targeted and may end up being suspended, but …

The wait is finally over and its time to get started with College Football games set to start this week.  Like last year I will release plays as a 1 unit play or 2 unit play.  Primarily for the first few weeks, most of my plays will be 1 unit bets as no matter how great or terrible a team looks on paper, getting out on the field and actually playing the game can sometimes mean a whole different story.  There are several teams that I have already labeled as teams that will get my money right off the bat, but some of them I will have to take a wait and see approach.  I will be updating this post several times over the course of the week so make sure to check back often.

Game 1: Southern Miss vs South Carolina (-14): In my opinion, this is South Carolina’s best squad in a few years.  SC returns 9 starters, including  their QB, on the offensive side of the ball.  Most of their OL returns as well, which should help provide some good running lanes and security for their QB.  On the other side of the ball, they return 7 starters from their average defense last year.  While S.Miss does return 9 starters on defense, a defense that was average at best, they only return 3 starters on offense, including their QB, from their squad a year ago.  Their OL ranks almost dead last in offensive starts.  This inexperience will not help against a strong SEC team.  S.Miss draws a very tough spot to open up the year, on the road in the SEC.  S.Miss will struggle on to score points on offense and the quickness of the SC’s defense …

QB Zach Collaros can get it done in the air or on the ground. He's the real deal.

When I saw the line open at Cincinnati -1.5, my eyes opened up and I was in a state of disbelief. Something has to be up because this football spread is just too favorable if my first impression serves me correct. Sure, Cincinnati lost their head coach Brian Kelly to Notre Dame and they don’t have QB Tony Pike this season either (29 TDs last season in just 8 starts), but did the oddsmakers forget that Fresno State lost the nation’s best running back RB Ryan Matthews (1808 yards, 19 TDs) and play in the WAC?

Cincinnati has a more than capable quarterback in QB Zach Collaros (1436 passing yards, 344 rushing yards, 10 passing TDs, 4 rushing TDs in 4 starts), who filled in for the injured Tony Pike last season. I am enamored with this kid. In Collaros’s five games after Pike’s injury (he had 132 rushing yards in his debut once Pike went down vs. USF), he averaged 65 rushing yards per game. Collaros helped lead the Bearcats to a 12-0 regular season by going 4-0 as their starter and beating quality teams such as Connecticut and West Virginia. He threw for 4 TDs against Syracuse and racked up 480 passing yards, 75 rushing yards, and 3 TDs against Connecticut. Collaros won over Bearcats fans and there were many who wanted him to remain the starting QB for the rest of the season.

Collaros also has a ton of weapons to work with again this season as the offense returns 8 starters including returning RB Isaiah Pead (806 rushing yards, 201 receiving yards, 11 TDs), WR Armon …

If you are looking to place a wager on tonight’s game you should probably consider the following.

NY Giants: According to the Giants Head Coach their offense has been severely limited due to several key injuries. The Giants normally play a two tight-end set, but will likely be limited to a one tight-end set tonight due to several injuries to their tight-ends. The coach also stated that the starting offense would be limited to about 15-18 plays before the second string would hit the field. The Giants have been running their mouth a lot and giving the Jets a lot of “bulletin board” material to get them fired up over the past week. Giants defense appears to be pretty healthy and ready to go.

Jets: The Jets appear to be relatively healthy and should come in pretty prepared for this game. The starting offense is expected to play into the 2nd quarter. Giants said that the Jets playing starters longer would not effect their strategy for the game. One important note is that the Jets are appearing this year on the HBO Hard Knocks show. Several of the teams that have been filmed for this this show have really struggled with their overall play in the season that followed them appearing on the show as it appears to distract the players from the overall routine of getting ready for the season as the cameras are constantly on them.

Based on the above, I would lean towards the Jets -3 and the under 33.5. Again, these are leans. Nothing really jumps out as me as making this game a must bet besides being bored on a Monday Night.

Good Luck.…

WR #15 Jermaine Kearse is the player to watch in this one.

WASHINGTON HUSKIES @ BYU COUGARS -3

Washington has been a notoriously awful football team for the better part of the last decade, but has shown signs of turning their program around last year. Ever since their 2001 Rose Bowl appearance, they’ve struggled big time. Here are their records since 2001 in chronological order: 7-6, 6-6, 1-10, 2-9, 5-7, 4-9, 0-12, 5-7. The bottom line is that this team hasn’t produced a winning season since 2002, but they were able to improve on their 0-12 2008 season by going 5-7 this past year. Everyone tried to pound the Huskies last year and more often than not, they got burned as the Huskies had a 7-5 record ATS. They covered against USC, Notre Dame, Arizona, UCLA, and Cal. Even more impressive was the fact that they closed the season by defeating Cal 42-10 after shutting out Washington State 30-0, as well as upsetting USC 16-13. However, Washington struggled on the road going 0-5 and getting crushed by the likes of Oregon State and Stanford, who they were unable to cover against.

BYU was tremendous this past season, closing the year with an 11-2 record and going 8-5 ATS and finishing 14th in the BCS standings ahead of teams such as Pitt, Oregon State, Stanford, Utah, and West Virginia. That kind of performance last year begs the question, why is this team only giving up 3 points at home? Something has to be up. Let’s see what we can dig up.

First, with a spread like this, you know that some key players from last year won’t be back this season. BYU’s stud QB Max Hall has graduated and moved onto …

If you do a little research and make some educated guesses based on current comments by coaches and players as to their intentions for any of their preseason games, you may have a chance to build that bankroll even before the season officially starts.

Saturday Leans:

1. Detroit (+2.5) vs Pittsburgh: Even w/o Big Ben Pitt is still the better team.  However, Detroit has won more games in the past two preseasons than they have in either season combined.  Therefore, I still look for the Detroit coaches to push for a win here, just to help the overall morale of this team.  So look for Detroit to come out and play harder as this game may mean more to Detroit than Pittsburgh. Lean towards Det.

2. Minnesota (+2.5) vs St. Louis: Without Favre confirmed to be the starter look for the QBs from Minnesota to take the field focused on earning a starting QB role.  Therefore, you may see some more passing from the Vikings, plus their running game will be solid even when they get pretty deep on their bench.  St. Louis still has a long way to go to be considered a professional football team.  Lean towards Minny.

These are not blockbuster picks, this is the presason so anything could happen.  Just some insight I have gained through some interviews with coaches and players that I have heard this year.…