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SMART BET College Football Week 1

Posted by in College Football Picks on August 30th, 2010 | 2 Comments

College Football Fist PumpThe wait is finally over and its time to get started with College Football games set to start this week.  Like last year I will release plays as a 1 unit play or 2 unit play.  Primarily for the first few weeks, most of my plays will be 1 unit bets as no matter how great or terrible a team looks on paper, getting out on the field and actually playing the game can sometimes mean a whole different story.  There are several teams that I have already labeled as teams that will get my money right off the bat, but some of them I will have to take a wait and see approach.  I will be updating this post several times over the course of the week so make sure to check back often.

Game 1: Southern Miss vs South Carolina (-14): In my opinion, this is South Carolina’s best squad in a few years.  SC returns 9 starters, including  their QB, on the offensive side of the ball.  Most of their OL returns as well, which should help provide some good running lanes and security for their QB.  On the other side of the ball, they return 7 starters from their average defense last year.  While S.Miss does return 9 starters on defense, a defense that was average at best, they only return 3 starters on offense, including their QB, from their squad a year ago.  Their OL ranks almost dead last in offensive starts.  This inexperience will not help against a strong SEC team.  S.Miss draws a very tough spot to open up the year, on the road in the SEC.  S.Miss will struggle on to score points on offense and the quickness of the SC’s defense should cause a couple turnovers as well, plus their defense will have their hands full trying to stop the balanced attack of the Gamecocks.  South Carolina has won 10 consecutive home openers, including four on Thursday night. Spurrier has dominated the first game of the season going 24-1 as a head coach. The Golden Eagles were 0-6 on the road in 2009, and are 2-11 in their last 13 road openers, losing the last five by an average of 15 points a game. Therefore, the Gamecocks should put a thumping on S.Miss to open the season.

The Play: 1 unit SC (-14)

Keep following for updates as the week goes on. . .

2 Responses to SMART BET College Football Week 1:

  1. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Sep 02, 2010 at 11:54 am

    Update: Been a good deal of movement on the UNDER in the Gamecocks game tonight. The line opened at 47 and is steadily moving down, in most books it is currently at 45. I have also looked the internet and blogs over trying to find anything on NCAA suspensions, but I haven’t seen anything yet. It is pretty late in the day to think the NCAA would release suspensions less than 7 hours before game time, but again I wouldn’t put anything past that group of wise decision makers (insert sarcastic voice here).

    Other line movements: Minnesota -2 is the standard in most places and I would lean towards Minnesota. My main issue is that the Big 10 has been terrible in out of conference games over the past few years so I am hesitant about making a play on Minnesota.

    Northern Illinois +5, I loved Iowa State last year and they return 8 starters, including their QB, on offense. Their defense is the question though as they were pretty poor against decent teams. Their defense only returns 4 starters from a year ago, which leaves me with some concern about the ability to stop a solid NIU offense. NIU returns 7 starters, including their QB, on offense and 8 starters on defense. I would likely lean towards NIU plus the points here, but as it is the first game I will probably stay away.

  2. Vegas Martin

    Date: Sep 02, 2010 at 11:39 pm

    Phenomenal call Brandon. Can’t wait to see what you like Saturday.

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