Football Picks Against the Spread

ECU throws a Hail Mary to win the game 51-49 over Tulsa. Dominique Davis threw a 33-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Justin Jones to win it for the Pirates. FYI, Tulsa was favored by 7 points.

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Think of betting on the top 10 against the spread? Think again.

Based on a quick glance at the week 1 college football scores, you’re probably saying to yourself, “I should have just bet on every top 10 college football team.” Let’s see how many ended up covering.

#1 Alabama (-38.5) vs. San Jose State – Alabama covers by 6.5

#2 Ohio State (-28) vs. Marshall – Ohio State covers by 10

#3 Florida (-38) vs. Miami-OH – Miami-OH covers by 16

#4 Texas (-31) vs. Rice – Rice covers by 14

#5 Boise State vs. #6 Virginia Tech – Tonight!

#7 TCU (-13.5) vs. Oregon State – Oregon State covers by 4.5

#8 Oklahoma (-34) vs. Utah State – Utah State covers by 27

#9 Nebraska (-39) vs. Western Kentucky – Push

#10 Iowa vs. Eastern Illinois – No Odds

Summary: If you took the 7 top 10 teams that could you have bet on ATS, you would have went 2-4-1.…

I'm flip-flopping, Boise is just too damn good.

Week 1 College Football Recap

Like I mentioned throughout all this week, there weren’t any picks that I loved this week. I only played a handful of games very light. I got all jacked up when I went 2-0 on Thursday night thanks to Brandon’s call of South Carolina -14 and my play of Pitt +3.5. I then gave some of that back when Washington failed to cover by 3 and Cincinnati didn’t show up for me against Fresno, but if you were to listen to Brandon, he liked Fresno in that one and he nailed that call. However, a sweet 2-to-1 odds 4-team teaser made the week a fantastic one for me. My teaser card hit with LSU -2.5, Notre Dame -3.5, Missouri -4, and Colorado -4.5. My teaser of TCU -6/Over 43.5 also hit, but I did not touch that game. When it comes to teasers, I often strike gold. For many of the week 1 college football games, I recommended teasing the line down (Notre Dame, TCU, and Colorado) since I simply did not like the high spreads.

Virginia Tech vs. Boise State – Final Word

I’m about to flip-flop on this pick. I originally came out and called Virginia Tech to win based on two key factors: (1) VT’s triple threat running attack may cause trouble for Boise State; and (2) VT is playing this came close to home (at FedEx Field in Washington DC). However, the more I think about this matchup, the more I like Boise State. If Virginia Tech wants to win this one, they will have to keep this game low scoring. They simply cannot beat Boise in a shootout.

If Virginia …

We may not get an easier win all year then we did with South Carolina. There were some nerves that had to be worked out on the first couple drives of the game, but once the flow of the game started there was no doubt who was in control.  1-0 with 1 unit of profit is a good way to start, but we have a long way to go in the season so lets stay focused on get a couple more winners on Saturday.

Western Michigan (+24) vs Michigan State: I am taking a shot here with WMU, for one main reason, a team must prove something to me before they go laying 24 points to anyone.  WMU returns 7 seven starters on the offensive side of the ball, but not their QB or RB. However, Alex Carder is a solid replacement for the great Hiller and will rely on one of the best offensive lines in the country and a solid core of receivers.  On the defensive side of things, WMU returns 6 guys, but more importantly several key guys in the secondary. MSU returns 7 starters on offense, including their QB Cousins.  MSU will be solid on the offensive side of the ball, but remember this team was not all that great last year so they do need to take some big strides this year.  Therefore, look for this game to be pretty high scoring, but I think WMU will have several opportunities to score and keep this well within range.

The play WMU +24 for 1 unit

Illinois vs Missouri -12: Let me say this up front, I am going against the conventional pick and line movement in this one.  Missouri opened as a 13.5-point chalk, but …

VICTORY!!! BYAH!!!

THE PASS RUSH started off the opening season with a 2-0 record ATS. It always feels good to start the season with two wins during Thursday’s prime-time openers. Brandon provided a hell of a pick with his call of South Carolina -14 over Southern Miss. If you took that one, you were loving it from the get go as it was a money in the bank cover with a 41-13 win.  You can’t beat a 14-point cover when you’re already giving up 14 points.

My pick in Pitt +3.5, on the other hand, made you sweat it out. It was ugly, but a win is a win. Utah’s D stepped up in this one, especially their run D, which was rather weak last season. Utah’s D held Pitt to just 2.3 yards per carry. Pitt’s D likewise stepped up in this one too as they forced 3 turnovers including a blocked punt.

In the 4th quarter, Pitt was down by 11, 24-13. Future first-round draft choice WR Jon Balwin finally decided to show up to score a 44-yard touchdown and a 2-point conversion to put Pitt back in the money with 5 minutes left. With Pitt down 24-21, it was good to be back in the money.

There’s a reason I liked the 3.5 points. I knew that if Pitt would lose, they would lose by exactly 3 points. Fact. I knew I would not like this spread anything short of 3.5 points. Then what happens will drive any football bettor crazy. Pitt has the ball, drives down, and kicks a FG to send it into overtime. At this point, we just want Pitt to shank the field goal so we could get the cover …

Coach Wulff will likely improve WSU in his 3rd year as coach.

WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS (+18.5) @ OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS

I’m doing one more week 1 college football preview before shifting gears and getting into the week 1 NFL lines. This time I want to take a look at Washington State @ Oklahoma State (-18.5). I was eying this line up early when the Cowboys were 14.5 favorites and the line has moved to 18.5 which shows the public is pounding the Cougars.

Washington State is absolutely terrible! They posted a 1-11 record last year, but managed to come out 5-7 ATS. That’s because they were mostly spotted between 20-45 points every single game! They gave up an average of 38.5 PPG while scoring just 12 PPG. The Cougars D was dead last in the country giving up 512 yards per game! On the upside, Washington State can’t get any worse as they are returning 15 starters from last season and are in the 3rd year of Coach Paul Wulff’s tenure.

The question now becomes, can Oklahoma State be as good as they were the last two seasons because if they are, I’m all over the Cowboys in this one. Despite OSU’s 9-3 regular season record last year, they were just 5-6-1 ATS. They had a balanced attack last year gaining about both 180 yards rushing and passing and putting up an average of 28 PPG while allowing 21 PPG. Oklahoma State will be forced to replace QB Zac Robinson with junior QB Brandon Weeden, who happens to be 26-years-old and Weeden has a cannon for an arm.

The Cowboys are also replacing four starters on their offensive line including first-round draft pick Russull Okung. The Cowboys also have …

Can Scotty McKnight help lead the Buffaloes to a winning season?

There’s two more games that I wanted to get around to before the college football season kicks off. Colorado vs. Colorado State and Oklahoma State vs. Washington State. Why am I previewing these games? Because Colorado State and Washington State are terrible teams which has me thinking that easy money could be made, so let’s check that out. I loved betting against the Browns, Raiders, Rams, and Lions last year because it was easy money. Let’s see if we can pick against the weaker college teams early this season.

COLORADO BUFFALOES (-11.5) @ COLORADO STATE RAMS

We’ll start with the Rams since their usually atrocious. The Rams had a 3-9 record last season (2-9 ATS). They started off with 3 wins, including a win over Colorado, then went 9-0. They had an impressive win over Nevada, but then got crushed by the likes of BYU, TCU, San Diego State, Air Force, and UNLV.

Like Brandon suggested, target teams to bet against that are losing a lot of offensive linemen. Colorado State is returning just one lineman and they’ll be forced go with a true freshmen QB Pete Thomas. Thomas was a highly touted recruit who threw for 5500 yards and 52 TDs in just three years of high school ball, so the kid has some skills. See highlights below.  RB Leonard Mason will do his best to help take pressure off Thomas in his first collegiate start.

Colorado was also 3-9 last season, but at least they played tough against the spread with a 7-5 record ATS. They also have 17 starters returning so they’re poised to surprise a lot of people this year. They were probably best …