Football Picks Against the Spread

There’s been a lot of updates to the site, so the NFL Week 4 Predictions have been pushed down the main page, so I wanted to put up my top 5 picks again.  Follow the the link to get the full run-down of every NFL game this week.

THE BOTTOM LINE — TOP 5 SPREADS THIS WEEK (RANKED BY AWESOMENESS):

I don’t like the fact they’re I’m picking 5 road teams, but hell, that’s the way it works out sometimes.

1.) Giants -9 over CHIEFS (W)

2.) Bengals -5.5 over BROWNS (L)

3.) Bills -2 over DOLPHINS (L)

4.) Cowboys -3 over BRONCOS (L)

5.) Chargers +6.5 over STEELERS (L)

UPDATE: My two bets this week were the Giants (5 units) and the Bengals (3 units).  At least we ended up in positive territory on those and the “pick of the week” (Giants) was a success.  The next 3 picks didn’t pan out, but I didn’t have any money on those games since I’ll be sticking to taking the best one or two spreads each week and ignore the rest.

The Denver D is actually better than my expectations.  How did they go from being awful to being good?  That Brandon Marshall TD on the Broncos last drive could very well be this week’s play of the week.  What a talented receiver.  Makes pretty glad that I picked him up late in my fantasy league.…

Question: I need some WR/RB start/sit help for week 4.

I need some advice for this week at these positions

WR:  Eddie Royal vs. DAL or Percy Harvin vs. GB

RB: Ray Rice @NE or Donald Brown vs. SEA

Thanks!

Answer:

Play Percy Harvin. He has shown me much more than Eddie Royal. I would also go with Ray Rice. Although McGahee is stealing all of his TDs, Rice picks up all of the yards and gets more touches than Donald Brown.

What do you think? Answer below!…

Overall Profit 0.2 units

We dropped one unit yesterday as Louisville forgot that they had to play two halfs of football to cover the spread!!

I am just posting the picks for today as I want to get them up on the site as soon as possible.

1. Virginia (+13) at UNC for 1 unit (W)
2. Wisconsin at Minnesota (-3) for 1 unit (P)
3. Michigan at Michigan State (-3.5) for 1 unit (W)
4. Tulsa at Rice (+17) for 1 unit (P)
5. Air Force (+2.5) at Army for 2 units (L)
6. FIRST HALF New Mexico at Texas Tech (-20) for 1 unit (L)

Good Luck!…

Question: Which game should I pick in week 4 of my survivor pool?

Should I take the San Francisco 49ers over the St. Louis Rams or the Indianapolis Colts over the Seattle Seahawks? Both the Colts and the 49ers are playing at home. I’m not concerned with about saving either team for a later week, I’m just looking for the best matchup this week. What do you think?

Best answer:

I would take the 49ers over the Rams. The Rams are pathetic. I know you aren’t concerned about saving the Colts, but I think the 49ers have an equal or better chance at beating their opponent than the 49ers so you might as well save the Colts pick for when the Colts play a team like the Jaguars.

Know better? Leave your own answer in the comments!…

Overall Profit 1.3 units

Hope several of you were able to cash a ticket last night as we brought home an easy winner with UAB winning outright as a 9 point dog. We look to continue rolling tonight and win our third straight game.

Pitt vs Louisville (+7) This line simply does not make a whole lot of sense to me. For the second straight week Pitt is a road favorite and I simply do see enough from them to be laying a touchdown in conference play. Louisville has not been all that impressive losing 2 of 3, but have faced difficult road challenges playing at Kentucky and Utah. They now return home to open up conference play and I expect to see a much different team tonight. Pitt does dominate in most statistical categories, but I just don’t think these two defenses are all that different. Therefore, look for Louisville’s D to slow the Panthers down and keep this game close for the offense. Another thing that seems suspect is that most sites show that the majority of the money continues to roll in on Pitt. However, the line has not really moved all that much as it remains at 7. Which seems to indicate to me that some “smart” money is really on Louisville and if this line would be adjusted the heavy hitters would pound Louisville. I look for this game to be very similar to last night’s battle with Louisville coming away with the win.

The Play: Louisville (+7) for 1 unit. (L)

Good Luck…

START ‘EM IN WEEK 4

1.) Darren McFadden — A bit disappointing through 3 games, but he should have a monster day against the 32nd ranked Texans run defense and overall defense.

2.) Clinton Portis — After being a great fantasy back in 2008, Portis has been struggling.  Start him against the Bucs this week and if he doesn’t get going against this 31st ranked run D, then you know he may not be worth starting for the rest of the year.

3.) Cedric Benson — The Bengals are facing the Browns, so you obviously want to start him.

4.) Tashard Choice — With Barber questionable and now Felix Jones out with an injury, the spotlight is solely on him.  He’s proven he can catch out of the backfield, which Romo likes to do frequently if his receivers are covered.

5.) Willie Parker — Time for Wast Willie Parker to get going against a Chargers defense that has been spotty against the run.

6.) Justin Gage — A matchup against the 32nd ranked passing D should give the Titans a W and pad his stat sheet.

7.) Earl Bennett/Devin Hester/Johnny Knox — I like any receiver playing the Lions so all these Bears WRs are a go.

8.) Mike Sims-Walker — The Titans have been awful against the pass and Garrard is giving Sim-Walker a lot of looks.

9.) Brandon Marshall — Marshall is back to producing and he was up against lock-down CB Awesome-ungha [sic] last week.  Against a shoddy Cowboys pass D, this should be his big breakout game.  I’m thinking triple-digit yardage.

10.) Lee Evans — A bit dissappointing so far, but he’s probably your #3 guy.  The Dolphins struggle against the pass, so this could be …

Overall Profit 0.3 units

Easy winner with La Tech last night and hopefully we can keep that rolling tonight.

SMU at UAB (+9.5): sorry for the short write-up, very busy day. UAB looks to revenge a big loss from last year. They get SMU at home and should keep this close throughout.

The Play UAB (+9.5) for 1 unit.

Good Luck.…