Football Picks Against the Spread

So here it is, a run down of every game on tap against the spread.  Are you in a pick ’em pool or just wager a little bit on Sundays?  Then this is the post for you.  OK, so I gave you a preview of what I was thinking yesterday and my favorite picks going into today’s update are the Giants -9 over the Chiefs and Bengals -5.5 over the Browns.  Usually I want to stay away from betting against home underdogs, but I’ve done it twice against the Browns and it’s paid off.  If a team is crappy enough, home field isn’t going to save them.  Also see the Broncos demolition over the Raiders last week.  So lets get to it.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ HOUSTON TEXANS -9

Which Texans team are we going to get?  You never know.  You could get the team that lights up the Titans or the team that falls to the Jaguars.  The Texans struggle against the run, so Run DMC (Darren McFadden for you lay people) may have a huge game.  I also think Nnamdi Awesome-ungha [sic], you know, the Raiders high-paid arguably top 3 or 5 CBs in the league may (MAY) keep Andre Johnson in check.  The Raiders are really, really bad though, and the Texans have an actual offense capable of scoring points — that’s important.  It may be close with the spread, but I’ll count on the Texans to deliver a 10-14 point win.  Nonetheless, a bad game to bet on.

Prediction: Texans 24 – Raiders 13

Free Pick: Texnas -9 (Confidence: 2/5)

TENNESSEE TITANS -3 @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

I like the Titans here because I just don’t see them dropping to 0-4.  They’ve have 3 crushing defeats …

What’s up my peeps.  Before I get into every NFL game (if I’m not lazy enough to do it considering I have 2 great picks for you this week), I wanted to give you some initial thoughts at some spreads that jumped out at me.

I hope you got this week off to the right start with Brandon’s Louisiana Tech pick.  They rolled over Hawaii in the second half for the 27-6 win to cover the 4.5 points.  Nice pick B.

If you are new to THE PASS RUSH.  This is how this works, Vegas Martin gives you the run down on the NFL and Brandon Phillips fills you in on the college spreads since that’s what he does, he picks college winners.  We also have the site mobile enabled, so you can check our picks from your iPhone or Blackberry.  How amazing are we?  More amazing than DeSean Jackson this season if I might say so.

Disclaimer: If you take our picks just because we do, a crackhead may break into your home, smack you upside the head, and you may lose money.  Do your OWN DUE DILIGENCE.

On a lighter note, last week we found some solid winners with easy picks of the Saints over the Bills and Ravens over the Browns.  That’s what we’re looking for again.

Matchups that jump out to me are the Giants -9 over the Chiefs, Redskins -7 over the Bucs, Bengals -5.5 over the Browns, Bears -10 over the Lions, 49ers -9.5 over the Rams.

So this is how it works.  We think of the 5 worst teams in the NFL and start with those spreads.  Seems like the right strategy, right?  Why waste time putting money on a Chargers/Steelers, Packers/Vikings, or …

Profit/Loss Total -0.7 unit.

Hawaii vs. Louisiana Tech (-4.5) Great spot for LT here at home. Their schedule started off pretty tough having to start play on the road at Auburn and Navy. Last week they got their first win against a cupcake opponent and they should be building that confidence off that win. Hawaii is in a tough spot playing their third consecutive road game and easily facing their toughest opponent yet. Plus they are coming off a tough road loss at UNLV last out. Hawaii is not the team they were a couple of years ago and will struggle to win more than 5 games as their schedule gets more difficult the rest of the way. Jump on this game early as I see it going off more around 6 or 7.

The Play LOUISIANA TECH 1 unit…

NFL WEEK 3 IN REVIEW:

What’s up my peeps.  The Saints, my pick of the week, cashed in for me.  Easy money in the bank, although I was a little taken back when they took a mere 10-7 lead into the half.  I also made a pretty penny on those Ravens over the Browns — that was just another easy game that was like “free money.”

I lost a minor amount on the Falcons.  I wanted to wait right before the game to see what the injury picture was holding.  I was hoping both Moss and Welker would be out, so I could jump on the Falcons, but when I heard Moss was playing, I still figured I would place a small bet on the Falcons since Wes Welker was still out.  I was playing the Wes Welker injury and thought the Pats would be flat without him, just like the Jets game, but they were able to muster enough offense to hold off the Falcons.

The Saints and Ravens has us well positioned going into Monday night.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ DALLAS COWBOYS -8.5

Tonight’s Monday Night game is the Cowboys and Panthers.  The 1-1 Cowboys look to bounce back from the tough Sunday Night loss against the Giants while the Panthers are looking for their first win of the season after losses to the Eagles and Falcons.  I think taking the points +8.5 is the way to go.  Cowboys obviously win, but when you give a good team like the Panthers 8.5 points, you take them.

Dallas’s secondary was exposed by the Giants, who appeared to pass at will over the Cowboys.  The Giants’ Steve Smith is much like the Panthers’ Steve Smith and was able to get open …

The Brett Favre magic continues.  12 seconds left, down by 4, 33 yards to go.  How does he do it?

…

— Brian Westbrook is out.  LeSean McCoy will get the start and is fantasy worthy.

— Randy Moss will play.  Wes Welker is inactive.  I am still a fan of the Falcons +4.5 with Welker being out.  My favorite game is still Saints -6 though.  Leodis McKelvin will play, but he’ll be on a bum ankle.

— DeSean Jackson is active.  Kevin Curtis is inactive.  Jeremy Maclin will start opposite of DeSean Jackson.  Kevin Kolb is the starting QB for the Eagles.

— Dwayne Bowe has been ruled out.…

I just wanted to update everyone on the injury front.  Playing the injuries is a great way to take advantage of some spreads.

First, both Randy Moss and Wes Welker are Questionable for Sunday’s game.  Questionable means that they have a 50/50 shot of playing.  If both players are out, jump on the Falcons spread which has moved to +4.5.  Pats struggle big time without Welker in the line up.  If BOTH Welker and Moss are out, their offense comes to a grinding halt and the Falcons should easily dominate them, and you have the advantage of 4.5 points on your side.

Next, I really, really, really like the Saints -6 over the Bills.  This Saints offense is the best offense in the history of ever.  Better than the Patriots of 2007, better than the Colts of 2004-2006, better than any team that I can remember.  The Bills aren’t going to be able to keep up with them offensively.  Even better is the fact that the Bills have their premiere CB Leodis McKelvin questionable for the game, CB Terrance McGee is banged up, and LB Pozlusny is out for the season.  Also keep in mind that Marshawn Lynch is still serving a suspension, so that hurts the Bills ability to eat clock with the power running game.  With 2 banged up corners against the best passing offense in the league, this is a sweet spot to take advantage of that matchup.  Look for the Saints to light up the scoreboard.

Favorite Picks This Week: Saints -6 and Falcons +4.5…