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NFL Week 4 Predictions Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on October 1st, 2009 | Comment »

So here it is, a run down of every game on tap against the spread.  Are you in a pick ’em pool or just wager a little bit on Sundays?  Then this is the post for you.  OK, so I gave you a preview of what I was thinking yesterday and my favorite picks going into today’s update are the Giants -9 over the Chiefs and Bengals -5.5 over the Browns.  Usually I want to stay away from betting against home underdogs, but I’ve done it twice against the Browns and it’s paid off.  If a team is crappy enough, home field isn’t going to save them.  Also see the Broncos demolition over the Raiders last week.  So lets get to it.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ HOUSTON TEXANS -9

Which Texans team are we going to get?  You never know.  You could get the team that lights up the Titans or the team that falls to the Jaguars.  The Texans struggle against the run, so Run DMC (Darren McFadden for you lay people) may have a huge game.  I also think Nnamdi Awesome-ungha [sic], you know, the Raiders high-paid arguably top 3 or 5 CBs in the league may (MAY) keep Andre Johnson in check.  The Raiders are really, really bad though, and the Texans have an actual offense capable of scoring points — that’s important.  It may be close with the spread, but I’ll count on the Texans to deliver a 10-14 point win.  Nonetheless, a bad game to bet on.

Prediction: Texans 24 – Raiders 13

Free Pick: Texnas -9 (Confidence: 2/5)

TENNESSEE TITANS -3 @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

I like the Titans here because I just don’t see them dropping to 0-4.  They’ve have 3 crushing defeats and they’re not that bad of a team.  The Jaguars offense is slacking unless they play a poor D like the Texans.  All the Jaguars have is MJD and that Sim-Walker guy isn’t a half-bad WR.  The thing is the Titans have a pretty solid run D.  If they gang up on MJD and force Garrard to beet them with his arm, they’ll have a shot to win this game.  I don’t like betting on this game though since when the Titans win, it’s usually by 3 and rarely more than 7.

Prediction: Titans 19 – Jaguars 13

Free Pick: Titans -3 (Confidence: 2/5)

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -1.5

Tom Brady isn’t 100% yet, but he’s getting there.  He was starting to click even without Wes Welker last week.  If Wes Welker plays this Sunday, I think the Patriots are the team to take.  I think the Ravens on defense are better than advertised.  They looked strong against the Browns, which was just too easy to look good, but they gave up a ton of yards to the Chargers and Chiefs.  Their pass D is vulnerable and with a QB like Brady, he could make the Ravens secondary look like a B-league unit.  If Welker plays, which is the key to this pick, I’m taking the Patriots.  The Ravens do have a strong offense (better than their D for the first time in history), so they should keep this one close with the chance of a possible upset.  They run hard and Flacco has been tremendous.

Prediction: Patriots 24 – Ravens 20

Free Pick: Patriots -1.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

NEW YORK GIANTS -9 @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Chiefs are a sorry excuse for a football team and the Giants are red hot right now.  The Chiefs should get pummeled just like they got pummeled by the Eagles last week.  Also keep in mind the Chiefs have Bowe, which they didn’t have last week, which may give them a TD.  Read more on this game in my previous post.  This could be my favorite game this week.

Prediction: Giants 31 – Chiefs 13

Free Pick: Giants -9 (Confidence: 4/5)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS -7

Considering the Redskins lost to the Lions and couldn’t even score a TD against the Rams, they have no business being a 7-point favorite.  The Bucs have the 31st ranked defense and have a a rookie QB starting.  You have your pick of Worse +7 @ Bad.  I can’t recommend taking the Redskins considering what they’ve proven so far this year, but they’re clearly the team to take based on how terrible the Bucs are along with the rookie QB factor.

Prediction: Redskins 22 – Bucs 8

Free Pick: Redskins -7 (Confidence: 2/5)

CINCINNATI BENGALS -5.5 @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

The Browns helped me pad my pocket twice since I took the Vikings and Ravens when they played them, so naturally they’re my go-to team to bet against this year.  With impressive wins over the Packers and Steelers, I’m starting to believe in the Bengals.  This is my second “pick of the week” along with the Giants and you can read more about it in my post from yesterday.

Prediction: Bengals 27 – Browns 10

Free Pick: Bengals -5.5 (Confidence: 4/5)

DETROIT LIONS @ CHICAGO BEARS -10

I don’t like this game because I feel it is a trap game.  You think Lions on the road and expect them to get killed.  They may very well get killed, but I’ll sit on the sidelines for this one.  First, Calvin Johnson can explode at any moment.  Second, the Lions aren’t the 0-16 team they were last year.  I think they go 4-12 to throw out a number out there, maybe even 5-11.  Third, the Bears D isn’t as strong as you might anticipate.  They are without Urlacher and they struggled keeping Seneca Wallace in check last week.  They have some defensive issues to work out.  I am staying away for this game, but for the sake of a prediction, I’m calling a Bears win by 7, but I am by no means confident on putting money on the Lions — don’t do that.  Just pass on this game.

Prediction: Bears 24 – Lions 17

Free Pick: Lions +10 (Confidence: 1/5)

NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -7

This is the game that I want to watch this week.  Good thing it’s playing at 4.  The Saints offense has been off the charts.  They’re just ridiculous.  The Jets are a great dark horse candidate to come out of the AFC though this year.  They are good.  Rex Ryan has done a tremendous job.  Especially with their defense.  The Jets have a top 5 defense and I’m wondering what happens this week when they face the league’s best offense.  One of them has to give, which makes this pick hard to make.  The Jets offense has been rolling and that Mark Sanchez kid is a damn good QB.  When you are spotted a TD to take a good team with a solid offense and excellent defense, I think you take the 7, but it’s tough to do against a team with a powerful offense like the Saints.  I think this one comes down to the wire and the Saints win by 3-7, so the worse-case scenario (I believe) is a push.

Prediction: Saints 27 – Jets 24

Free Pick: Jets +7 (Confidence: 2/5)

BUFFALO BILLS -2 @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

The Dolphins lost Chad Pennington and have to go with Chris Henne.  In order to win, the Dolphins need to face teams that can’t stop the run for their life.  The Bills aren’t one of those teams.  They’re ranked 18th in the NFL and average just 117 rushing yards allowed per game.  It should be fairly easy to stop a one dimensional team.  So far the Bills have been pretty impressive against New England and the Bucs, but lost steam in the 2nd half against the Saints.  I think this is a good spot to take the Bills.  They should definitely win by 3 and more likely more than that, so at -2, the spread is pretty favorable.

Prediction: Bills 23 – Dolphins 13

Free Pick: Bills -2 (Confidence: 4/5)

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS -9.5

First, check the status of Frank Gore.  They say he’ll be out 2 games.  If Gore was 100%, I would jump on this game, but he’s out, so I’m out of this game.  The Rams are terrible on both sides of the ball.  They average 8 points a game and allow 24 points-per-game and have averaged over 400 yards allowed on defense.  Since both my QBs (McNabb and Hasselbeck) are out with rib injuries, it’s a good time for me to pick up Shaun Hill to put in as my QB this week.  That worked out well.

Prediction: 49ers 24 – Rams 10

Free Pick: 49ers -9.5 (Confidence: 1/5 — due to Frank Gore being out)

DALLAS COWBOYS -3 @ DENVER BRONCOS

Looks like the odds-makers have put a lot of stock in the Broncos defense, which is ranked 1st.  Like I mentioned in my last article, they’ve faced the Browns, Bengals, and Raiders, so any team facing those 3 teams to start the year should have the 1st-ranked defense.  I’ll go with the Cowboys here in what looks like an easy pick to make.   I’m not putting much stock into the Broncos 3-0 start and #1 defense.  It’s a fluke.  Take the Cowboys.

Prediction: Cowboys 24 – Broncos 16

Free Pick: Cowboys -3 (Confidence: 4/5)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS -6.5

Never bet against a hot QB and the hot QB is Philip Rivers.  Right now, he’s tied for best QB in the league with Peyton Manning in my book.  If Troy Polamalu is out, and he likely will be, I say take the 6.5 points.  The Steelers lost to Bengals last week and the Bears the week before.  You may be thinking rebound game, but I’m not, and even if they do win, it will likely be less than a touchdown.  Steelers will likely escape with a 3-6 point win and I think the Chargers have a very good shot at winning outright.  I like the Chargers here.  There’s also the revenge factor from last year.  The Steelers won 35-24.  I think the Steelers have taken a step back and the Chargers have taken a step forward since that game.  In fact, I’m calling the Chargers to win outright and if they don’t, I still like them to cover.

Prediction: Chargers 23 – Steelers 20

Free Pick: Chargers +6.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS  -3.5

This is a tough game to call with the spread.  I’m just glad to see we have 2 great games for Sunday and Monday night.  I have to go with Adrian Peterson, Brett Favre, and the Vikings though.  This one will be close with the spread no doubt.  I just think the Vikings take the early lead the Packers play catchup throughout the game.  No matter who wins, it will likely be by 3-4 points.  This one should be coming down to the wire.

Prediction: Vikings 24 – Packers 20

Free Pick: Vikings -3.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

THE BOTTOM LINE — TOP 5 SPREADS THIS WEEK (RANKED BY AWESOMENESS):

I don’t like the fact they’re I’m picking 5 road teams, but hell, that’s the way it works out sometimes.

1.) Giants -9 over CHIEFS

2.) Bengals -5.5 over BROWNS

3.) Bills -2 over DOLPHINS

4.) Cowboys -3 over BRONCOS

5.) Chargers +6.5 over STEELERS

Disclaimer: If you bet on these picks just because we said so, an army of midgets may enter your home in order to beat you with billy clubs, and you may lose money.



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