Football Picks Against the Spread

What’s up my peeps.  It’s week 3 in the NFL and I’m giving you my take on every game on tap.  I’ve rode the Vikings for 2 weeks for big wins over the Browns and Lions, but they’ll be facing a tough 49ers team that looks like they could be a playoff team in January.  Let’s see what else is out there.

Brandon also posted a pick for tonight’s Ole Miss @ South Carolina game.  Click the link to view his analysis.  He is playing the over and I think it is a great call.

Top 5 Spreads in Week 3: Saints -6, Ravens -13, Texans -3.5, Bears -2, Falcons +4

TENNESSEE TITANS @ NEW YORK JETS -3

The Jets are good, they are very good.  They’ve improved 10-fold on the defensive side since last year and 100% of the credit goes to Rex Ryan.  They beat two very good teams (Texans and Patriots).  The Titans are still outstanding too and Chris Johnson himself can win any game and will only require 3 lineman to get it done.  He is dangerous, so I never want to bet against the Titans.  The Titans pass D is weak for an odd reason.  Pittsburgh tore them up and then Andre Johnson tore them up.  I expect a tight game, so this is probably not your best game to bet on.  Jets likely win by less than a touchdown and more likely by just a field goal.

Prediction: Jets 20 – Titans 17

Free Pick: Too close to call (Push)

CELEVELAND BROWNS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS -13

I really like this game, but hate high spreads in the NFL, but this may be one high spread worth taking.  The Ravens D isn’t what it …

Current Profit/Loss: +0.3 units. The season is still early and we are still are on the plus side.

OLE MISS VS SOUTH CAROLINA OVER 53

I really think there has been a change in the SEC this year. It seems as though the offensives are much better than the defenses this year. QB’s are really taking aim at weaker secondaries and the scores have been evident of that fact. Just look at some of the scores with SEC teams involved from Week 3:

1) Georgia 52 Arkansas 41

2) Auburn 41 WVU 30

3) UK 31 Loui 27

4) Ole Miss 52 SE Loui 6

Week 2:

1) Auburn 49 Miss St 24

2) Georgia 41 SC 37

This is just few examples. Remember this is a conference that has been historically filled with power/defensive-minded teams. Therefore, the books really haven’t adjusted these totals yet and I think that will come in the next few weeks, a major adjustment in the totals. However, tonight’s number is way too low. I think it should be set closer to 57. So take the over as these teams should put 60+ points tonight.

THE PLAY: OLE MISS/SC OVER 53 for 1 unit

Good Luck.…

Question: I need some start/sit advice for week 3.

Which 2 RBs should I start?

Cedric Benson vs. PIT — Tough matchup against a good run defense
Pierre Thomas @ BUF — Thomas has been injured all year
Donald Brown @ ARZ — Splitting carries with Joseph Addai
Thomas Jones vs. TEN — Up against another great run defense.

Answer:

Did you not take any RBs in the first 4 rounds of the draft? Tough break there. I would start Benson despite the tough matchup against Pittsburgh. He’s guaranteed to get the most touches out of your backs. Bench Thomas Jones. The last spot is a toss up between Pierre Thomas and Donald Brown. If Pierre Thomas is in the lineup on Sunday, I would start him so check the injury updates right before kickoff. If Pierre plays, you play him.

Add your own answer in the comments!…

Just an awesome highlights video for Week 2.  There are WAY too many plays to pick one play of the week, but Chris Johnson and Andre Johnson each have about 3 that you could say are the play of the week.  Watch and enjoy!

By the way, there’s a new poll on the right side. Click the link to jump to it.  Vote for game of the week.  They were all damn good, but I would have to go with Texans/Titans even though the Texans ruined my otherwise awesome week.  It was just back and forth, ridiculous TD after TD.

…

START ‘EM:

1.) Matt Forte — I’m a fantasy owner of Matt Forte and if you are, like I am, you’re probably frustrated with him.  Not many yards, no TDs, and an awful yards-per-carry average.  I don’t blame the guy.  He didn’t have an easy start with the Packers and Steelers.  Look for a big game this week against the Seahawks, who gave up over 200 yards and 2 TDs to Frank Gore last week.

2.) Steve Smith — The Giants WR will be a fantasy steel this year.  He runs great routes and is developing great chemistry with Eli Manning.  Against the Bucs, who are struggling against the pass, he looks to have another huge day.

3.) Chansi Stuckey — He came out with an impressive game against the Texans, but couldn’t really get going against the Patriots.  He now has the Titans, who were destroyed by the Steelers and Texans passing game.  I think the Titans D gangs up on Cotchery, which leave Stuckey with a lot of looks.

4.) Maurice Jones-Drew — Can he put up Chris Johnson like numbers against a weak Texans run D? Likely over 120 combined yards with a TD or two.

5.) Tim Hightower — The Colts got lit up by the Dolphins run game and they’ll be vulnerable to this pass-catching RB.

6.) Ahmad Bradshaw — The Giants are using him a lot and against the Bucs, he has a very favorable matchup.

7.) Ronnie Brown — A no-brainer after last week’s performance against the Colts.  Another favorable matchup against the Chargers.

8.) Felix Jones — With Barber possibly out or at least getting less carries, Jones will see an increased role and should follow up on the near 100 yard, …

WEEK IN REVIEW:

It was a good week.  I had the Vikings ring the register, who I put the majority of my money on this week.  Unfortunately, Andre Johnson going off, which I had a feeling might happen, took some of that away.  I had more faith in the Titans D.

I then got added some more cash to my account with the Colts at -3 over Miami.  I knew it would be a tight game and I didn’t like the spread at -4.5 as you could tell, but when I saw it at -3, I jumped on it.  I was anticipating a Colts win by 3 or 4. I’d rather be on the side of Peyton Manning in this one and that was the right side to take at -3.  Tough loss for the Dolphins who had something ridiculous like 45 minutes of possession.

Before writing up my full analysis of EVERY GAME ON TOP, I wanted to throw out some college picks that gave me a chubby and see what Brandon thinks since he’s the college expert, not me.

COLLEGE LINES THAT CAUGHT MY ATTENTION (HOME TEAMS IN CAPS):

KANSAS -13.5 over South Mississippi — Heck, I would take -13.5 over Mississippi State, who the hell is South Mississippi?  Eh, South Miss is 3-0 with wins against Virginia and Central Florida.  Those programs are no joke.  Maybe this game has upset alert on it.

BYU -15 (Buy a point to -14) over Colorado St. — I’m feeling a rebound game for a team that likes to crush teams in their division, but Colorado St. is 3-0 with with wins over Nevada and Colorado.

TENNESSEE -21.5 (Buy a half-point to -21) over Ohio — If they can hang with …

FANTASY STUDS:

1.) Chris Johnson – 197 rushing yards, 87 receiving yards, 3 TDs

2.) Andre Johnson – 149 yards, 2 TDs

3.) Frank Gore – 207 rushing yards, 2 TDs, 37 receiving yards

4.) Marques Colston – 98 yards, 2 TDs

5.) Ronnie Brown – 136 yards, 2 TDs

6.) Vincent Jackson – 141 yards, 1 TD

7.) Darren Sproles – 124 receiving yards, 26 rushing yards, 1 TD

FANTASY DUDS:

1.) Randy Moss – 24 yards

2.) Santana Moss – 35 yards

3.) Matt Forte – 29 rushing yards, 33 receiving yards

4.) Steve Slaton – 34 rushing yards, 25 receiving yards, 2 fumbles

5.) Reggie Wayne – 37 yards…