Football Picks Against the Spread

Happy New Years.  It’s January 1, which means the real bowl games start and we’re no longer subjected to the Wyoming Stamps.com Bowl.   Today we have the Rose Bowl and the Orange Bowl.  Let’s preview the games.

ROSE BOWL: USC -9 VS. PENN STATE

I’m shocked that the Torjans are 9-point favorites.  I came out thinking they would be favored by 3.  Both teams are 11-1, but I’m more impressed with what Penn State has done this season.  PSU averages 40 PPG and allowed 12 PPG.  USC scores 37 PPG and allows 8 PPG.  These teams have one common opponent: Oregon State.  Penn State killed them in their 2nd game, USC lost to them in 3rd game, but I wouldn’t give that too much weight.  The Trojans have an obvious advantage since this is essentially a home game.  72% of the public is taking the USC spread, but 63% are taking the Penn State moneyline at +270.  These teams match up pretty well.  It should be a great game and it should be close.  I think taking the points is the way to go, but I’m bias as a PA native.

ORANGE BOWL: VIRGINIA TECH VS. CINCINNATI -2

Cincinnati is 11-2 and Virginia Tech is 9-4.  I like Virginia Tech in this one because I think they have a much better defense.  They allow only 17 PPG to Cincinnati’s 20 PPG and they’ve had a much tougher schedule.  They’ve also only given up 9.7 PPG in their last 3.  The betting public is split down the middle on this one, but 8/12 experts like VT and so do I.…

There is a critical bowl game today that should be a good indicator of how strong or weak the Big 10 really is this year. With Northwestern playing very strongly against Missouri and covering easily the Big 10 could be a good play throughout the rest of the bowl games, as most are getting plenty of points. Minnesota a +7 to +9 point underdog, depending on where you make the bet, with a solid showing could give bettors a reason to take the points with the Big 10 throughout the rest of the bowl games, even though I have initially thought the Big 10 teams where clearly outmatched in all of their games. If you are looking for a small play I would take the over the in the Minnesota/Kansas game at 58. Minnesota stuggled down the stretch losing their last four giving up an average of over 40 points. Kansas went 2-2 over their final four giving up an average of 40 per as well. If Minnesota does play well today and cover or win, you may want to rethink most experts opinion that the Big 10 is weak.

Plays for Today:

1. Minnesota/Kansas over 58

2. Boston College -6 v. Vanderbilt

3. LSU v. Georgia Tech -4

Good Luck.…

With this being the final Sunday for NFL Regular Season football I thought I should give out some rock solid winners so you guys can pad your bankrolls before the playoffs.

1. Oakland/Tampa Bay OVER 39.5 (Rating +5)

2. Tennessee/Indianapolis OVER 39 (Rating +4)

3. Chicago/Houston  UNDER 46.5 (Rating +4)

4. Seattle (+6.5) at Phoenix (Rating +3)

5. Miami (+3) at New York Jets (Rating +3)

College Play for Sunday:

1. Northern Illinois (+1.5) vs. Louisiana Tech

Good Luck!…

Boise State let me down late as they could not stop TCU down the stretch, however if you took the points then you had an easy cover.

I made two bets before I left Vegas on bowl games and Central Michigan was one of them.  I was able to get the line at -6.5, but it is now at -7. There is definetly some home field advantage here as CMU is bringing tons of fans, while FAU is only bringing about 1500. CMU has played in the Motor City Bowl for the last 2 years and have played well in both. FAU has been poor on the road this year going 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS. Another factor is that at least two starters on defense for FAU are either out or suspended for the game and one other back-up is out as well. That puts in even more stress on a weak defense that will have its hands full trying to slow down that high powered CMU offense. CMU dropped the last two games of the year, but I don’t think that is as big a deal as many think. CMU lost to a red hot Ball State team, but played very tough and the game wasn’t decided until the last few minutes. Their other loss came to Eastern Michigan, but many times after a tough loss and with a game that is virtually meaningless you will see a team have a big let down and lose. Therefore, both of those losses can easily be explained. Tonight will be different. This is Dan LeFevour’s last game and he is going to go out in style. He should easily light up this weak FAU defense. While CMU’s defense is nothing …

Sorry I haven’t posted in a while guys, I was in Vegas. Had a pretty successful trip as I hit a video poker machine with 4 Aces and a kicker which paid $2000. Anyways it is back to reality and we have a bunch of bowl games to analyze.

TCU v. Boise State (+3):

Without a doubt the public is all over TCU, with 57% of the money on the spread going on TCU. I just don’t understand why. TCU has the better defense, but I just don’t believe they are that different: TCU’s D only allows 166 passing yards and under 50 yards rushing. However BSU’s D allows 189 passing and 105 rushing, which is also rock solid. Both of TCU’s losses have come on the road against Oklahoma and Utah. The key for me here is that Oklahoma loss. BSU’s offense is very similar to Oklahoma and I believe BSU will exploit TCU’s weakness in the secondary. I think BSU’s can beat them deep and score at will. I am calling it now, BSU in a route. I have already played this game on the money line. So take the points if you feel the need, but I just see BSU playing an overall better game and with a chip on their shoulder after getting snubbed from a major bowl game.

The Play: Boise State moneyline (+130)…

After taking a few hits week 15, the DAL/NYG under on Monday Night and Indianapolis on Thursday Night got things going back in the right direction.  I took the Colts moneyline to be safe, and for those who laid the points, you can thank CB #31 for the cover due to a pick 6.  The game was absolutely crazy, check out the highlights.  The game had you sweating once the Jaguars took the 14-0 lead, but Manning was able to pull through.

On to the NFL Week 16 games…

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ DALLAS COWBOYS -4

I don’t see how you can bet against the Ravens even though I’ll pick the Cowboys to cover since it’s in Dallas.  I’m hoping for a Ravens W so the Eagles can jump the Cowboys in the standings.  If Romo throws a few picks, which he’s always capable of against a defense like the Ravens, which he did against the Steelers, the Ravens have a shot at taking this one.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -2 @ TENNESSEE TITANS

I like the Steelers in this one and I think they are one of the top teams to take this week, especially with the low spread.  Their defense should hold the Titans to very few points.  Although Tennessee is 12-2, they were pretty unimpressive against the Texans last week.  Unless their running game gets going, they aren’t a very good team.  With the Steelers tough run D, I expect the Titans offense to struggle.  The Steelers have allowed only 10.4 PPG in their last 5 games.  The Titans have lost their top defensive player DT Albert Haynesworth and DE Kyle Vanden Bosch, another key player, is day-to-day.  Steelers win this one 20-13.

MIAMI DOLPHINS -3.5 @ KANSAS CITY …

Tonight the NFL Network will feature the Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars.  The Colts are 6-point favorites after the line opened Colts -6.5.  I don’t know why the line would move down since 80% of the money is riding on the Colts.  I like the Colts tonight.  The Colts have won 7-straight, but are only 3-3-1 ATS in that time.  The Jaguars managed to win at home last week against the Packers thanks to a breakout game from Dennis Northcut, but I’m still extremely concerned with their general inability to move the football.

Under normal circumstances, I tend to avoid IND/JAC games because they’re usually close, but this is an exception tonight due to Jacksonville’s struggles.  The Jags are 3-7 ATS in their last 10.  The stats of these teams indicate that this will be a close game though.  The offensive and defensive numbers for these teams are so close that you would think that this one could easily end in a 23-30 game.

Before taking the Colts you always have to look at the injury list, which doesn’t look good and could explain why the line moved down.  Marvin Harrison is out, LB Gary Brackett is out, Bob Sanders is questionable, Joseph Addai is questionable, and there are a handful of players that are banged up that are listed as probable (Ugoh, Saturday, Clark, Bethea).

After taking all of that into consideration, I really like the Colts to win straight up, but still a little unsure on whether they can cover 6.  A win by the Colts will clinch a playoff, so I’ll put my faith in Manning.  The Colts injuries concern me, but the Jaguars offense has been struggling big time.

I’m debating whether to take the Colts …