Football Picks Against the Spread

Question: Week 4 Start or Sit (Romo or Campbell)?

Who should I start this week at QB, Tony Romo @ DEN, or Jason Campbell vs. TBy?

Best answer:

Romo is always capable of putting up huge numbers. He got me 30 points in week 1. However, the argument to be made for Jason Campbell is that he is playing an atrocious Tampa Bay team. You play your best players and Romo has the most upside this week.  I would go with Romo.

Know better? Leave your own answer in the comments!…

51.) Willie Parker (RB) — Started off 2009 with a bang, but quickly went down with an injury. With Rashad Mendenhall likely to see an increased role and durability concerns, he’s fallen down by board, but he is a potential steal if other teams avoid him and you’re able to pick him up late.

52.) Larry Johnson (RB) — I’m assuming a lot of teams will be avoiding him, but he may be worth a 6th round pick if he can get his act together.

53.) Leon Washington (RB) — I’m pretty high on Leon Washington this season.  The Jets are committed to the run and Washington should see an increased role for the Jets.  Had 800 combined yards and 8 TDs last season with only 76 rushing attempts.  Look for 150 attempts this season.  Thomas Jones mileage is getting high and Leon Washington is due to step up big.  He’s also in a contract year and has expressed his unhappiness with not getting a new deal, so there’s an issue on whether that will affect his playing time this eason.

54.) Ray Rice (RB) — Is #1 on the Raven’s depth chart ahead of Willis McGahee due to McGahee’s knee injury.  A lot of people are high on him this year and he may be a real steal in this year’s draft.  If he’s still around in the 6th round, he’s a good grab.

55.) LenDale White (RB) — After he’s slimmed down, he’s looking to have a very good year, but Chris Johnson is taking the majority of the workload.  He still should be the Titans goalline back and that could mean 12-15 TDs.

56.) Braylon Edwards (WR) — Huge fantasy bust last season after an exceptional 2007 …

I just wanted to post up a mock draft to see how close I can come to calling this thing:

1.) Lions – Matthew Stafford
2.) Rams – Jason Smith
3.) Chiefs – Aaron Curry
4.) Seattle Seahawks – Mark Sanchez
5.) Cleveland Browns – Brian Orakpo
6.) Cincinnati Bengals – Andre Smith
7.) Oakland Raiders – Michael Crabtree
8.) Jacksonville Jaguars – Eugene Monroe
9.) Green Bay Packers – B.J. Raji
10.) San Fransisco 49ers – Tyson Jackson
11.) Buffalo Bills – Aaron Maybin
12.) Denver Broncos – Brian Cushing
13.) Washington Redskins – Michael Oher
14.) New Orleans Saints – Beanie Wells
15.) Houston Texans – Malcolm Jenkins
16.) San Diego Chargers – Rey Maualuga
17.) New York Jets – Jeremy Maclin
18.) Denver Broncos – Robert Ayers
19.) Tampa Bay Bucs – Josh Freeman
20.) Detroit Lions – William Beatty
21.) Philadelphia Eagles – Knowshon Moreno
22.) Minnesota Vikings – Eben Britton
23.) New England Patriots – Everette Brown
24.) Atlanta Falcons – Vontae Davis
25.) Miami Dolphins – Percy Harvin
26.) Baltimore Ravens – Darius Butler
27.) Indianapolis Colts – Darrius Heyward-Bey
28.) Buffalo Bills – Brandon Pettrigrew
29.) New York Giants – Hakeem Nicks
30.) Tennessee Titans – Peria Jerry
31.) Arizona Cardinals – Donald Brown
32.) Pittsburgh Steelers – Alex Mack…

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -7 VS. ARIZONA CARDINALS

I’m pretty down since my Eagles lost to the Cardinals in the NFC Championship, so my interest in the Super Bowl has declined immensely.  By no means did the Eagles choke.  Unfortunately they came out flat in the first half, but they got it together in the second half.  If they would have played both halves the way they played the second half, they could be playing in the big game in Tampa.  There’s still a lack of respect for the Cardinals due to their 9-7 regular season record.  Do not underestimate them.  Larry Fitzgerald is the most dangerous player in this game.  He has the ability to win games himself.  3 TDs last week against the Eagles.  He is virtually unstoppable as long as the offensive line can give Warner enough time.

Last Super Bowl, I said take the points with the Giants and this year I think taking the points may be the way to go.  I’m thinking that Pittsburgh will more than likely win this game, but that the Cardinals will more than likely cover. I’m pulling for the Cardinals since I hate Pittsburgh, so that’s influencing my pick.  I hate the Steelers, so yeah, there’s some bias here.  The Steelers should win this one by 3-4 points, but I wouldn’t be surprised one bit by a Cardinals victory.  If they do, look for one man to dominate: Larry Fitzgerald.

Also keep in mind that Big Ben is playing banged up, but that shouldn’t affect his game.

Prediction: Cardinals 27 – Steelers 24

Disclaimer: This pick is 100% bias.…

It’s better late than never.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -3.5 @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

I’m an Eagles fan, so yes, I’m 100% confident that my team will beat the Cardinals and move on to the Super Bowl.  McNabb is playing at the highest level he has played in years.  Their defense is absolutely ridiculous.  We will just have to double team Larry Fitzgerald all game.  Don’t count on the Cardinals running game having any success against the tough Eagles run D.  Eagles win, 27-20.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS-6

The #1 defense vs. the #2 defense.  Expect this one to be a tight defensive battle like the Ravens/Titans game.  I said before the playoffs that I think the Ravens will be the team to go onto the Super Bowl.  Their defense is better than Pittsburghs by a hair.  I like the prospect of Flacco going deep to Mark Clayton at some point in this game.  I also like the under 34.  This shouldn’t go over a 20-14 game.  Pittsburgh may move the ball well, but I see them often having to settle for field goals.  If the Steelers do win this game, it should be by 3-6 points.  I like the Ravens +6 and think they will win outright.  Ravens win, 13-9.…

Hey guys.  I just got back from Vegas and cashed in on the Arizona/Atlanta over, Eagles, and Ravens.  I dropped a small amount on the Colts though.  Speaking of that game, the NFL better change the overtime rules this offseason.  It’s completely bogus to determine a football game by a coin flip.  You knew whoever was getting the ball first in overtime was going to win the game.  Let’s see what’s on tap this weekend.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ TENNESSEE TITANS -3

With two of the best defense in the league, maybe the under 34.5 is the play to make.  However, a few Ed Reed INT’s can always get the game to hit the over.  I love the Ravens this post-season.  I think they have an excellent shot to play in the Super Bowl.  The Titans are at home where they just beet Pittsburgh in convincing fashion.  This will be a tight one.  Whoever wins the turnover and sack battle wins this game and both teams are great at forcing turnovers and getting sacks.  I’m pulling for the Ravens and I think this game pushes.  Either way, it should be tight.  With the home field, I’ll have to say the Titans win by a field goal.  Titans win, 16-13.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS -10

Before seeing the spread, the Panthers over the Cardinals was the best play to make.  I would surely recommend taking the Panthers at -6.5, but 10 points is a lot to cover in a playoff game.  The Cardinals are terrible on the road, where they are 3-5.  They give up an average of 30 PPG on the road.  The Panthers, on the other hand, are a perfect 8-0 at home.  Carolina averages 29 PPG at home …

Playoff football is here.  I see all the road teams having the upper hand, but you always have to be cautious when picking road teams.  However, Wild Card teams in recent years have rolled on.

ATLANTA FALCONS -2.5 @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

The Cardinals are not playoff worthy, the Falcons are.  82% of the betting public is taking the Falcons.  However, the Cardinals are a dangerous team at home.  368 yards of offense per game and 30.7 PPG when they’re at home.  That defense of the Cardinals can be a liability for them though.  I think the Falcons win this one in a tight, high-scoring game.  I say Falcons win 31-27.  The over 51 may be the play to make in this one.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

This one is a pick ’em.  8/10 experts at Covers.com like the Colts and so do I.  How can you not?  They’ve won 9 in a row!  Manning has been unstoppable.  San Diego does have an impressive 30.5 PPG average and 367 yards per game at home though.  I think this will be another tight one: Colts win 27-24.

BALTIMORE RAVENS -3.5 @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

The 1-15 Dolphins of last year are in the playoffs.  That’s the NFL for you.  They’ve won 9 of their last 10!  The Ravens are 8-2 in their last 10.  With the Ravens allowing only 80 rushing yards per game, I think the Dolphins offense will struggle and the Ravens offense should roll over the Dolphins D.  The Ravens put up 33 on Dallas 2 weeks ago.  I expect the Ravens to cover comfortably.  Ravens win 27-13.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -3 @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

E-A-G-L-E-S, EAGLES!!! I’m an Eagles fan, so I obviously expect them to win this …