Football Picks Against the Spread

Nike’s latest commercial featuring Troy Polamalu and LaDainian Tomlinson simply gives me chills.

…

First off, I apologize for letting those down who have followed my picks. The last two weeks haven’t went so well for my picks. Due to the cold streak, I will no longer be betting on the NFL, or any sports for that matter, for the time being. Betting on sports is a crap shoot. I always figured that not only do you have a 50/50 shot, but you have the benefit of using statistics and knowledge of the teams in order to make an informed decision. I always thought that past results were the best indication of future performance, and that’s what makes sports betting so misleading. The fact of the matter is that what a team has done in their past 5 games has no bearing on what will occur in the current game. The bottom line is that it’s 0-0 at the beginning of the game with 60 minutes to play and there’s no way of telling what may happen. No handicapper can plan for every contingency in a game. You’ve heard all the cliches: any given Sunday, it’s a game of inches, the disparity between teams in the NFL is so small, more games in the NFL are lost than won. Really, most games are decided by 1 or 2 plays: a crucial third down conversion, a turnover, a poor referee call for roughing the passer on 3rd down when they got a stop to bring up 4th down.

I was shocked by some of the outcomes last week. If you told me the Rams would upset the Redskins, I would have laughed in your face. The Redskins, who are in the top 5 of the power rankings, at home against the 2nd worst team in …

There are a bunch of games worth looking at this week, but it was tough to decide to pick which one. I was thinking of going against the grain and instead of giving up points, try to go with an underdog and take the points. I thought about taking the Ravens +4.5. As much as I think the Ravens D that will dominate an offense that is out of rhythm, I don’t want to bet on against the Colts at home. Dolphins +3 was another option, but I just have a feeling that the Texans are due for a win. Then I looked at which games would be safe to give up the points on. Redskins over the Rams, Vikings over the Lions, and Giants over the Browns are all obvious winners, but with spreads like 13.5, I’ll pass. How many times do you hear “the disparity between the teams in the NFL is so small.” Exactly, I don’t want to lay down 13.5 to any team although betting against the Lions and Rams seems like a good strategy based on how horrible they are.

If you took the Jets -6 early, good news for you: Carson Palmer is OUT this week, which caused the spread to move to Jets -9.5.

I decided to go with Bears -3 over the Falcons for 10 units, which is my big game of the week. The Bears defense is playing outstanding and the Bears offense has been rolling. Matt Forte is a stud at RB and even Kyle Orton is making plays each week. Not only do the Bears have a running game, but Kyle Orton has been outstanding this year. He has an 87 passer rating and is having a better …

I don’t know if any of you were up at 1:00am on Thursday morning, but I turned it over to NFL Live on ESPN. They rattled off a stat that was pretty schocking: West Coast teams playing the 1:00 Sunday game, on the East Coast are 0-10 this year. The only game that specifically fits that criteria this week is Oakland at New Orleans. NO is a 7 point favorite. I am a little unsure about NO, but I still think they have the ability to win this game even after their tough loss on Monday night. Since NO is a 3-1 favorite to win we need to find an underdog team that has the potential win outright. Based on the recent play of Miami, they will definetly be competitive in the game against the Texans. The Texans are coming off a very tough last second loss to Indianapolis. The Texans are bound to win one game and their record doesn’t reflect the fact that they are actually a decent team, a team that had much higher expectations for this season. Miami is +140 on the money line so they add some value to the parlay. The Texans are going in the wrong direction after that loss and Miami is on a roll right now. So I will take Miami and New Orleans both to win. The parlay pays a little over 2 to 1, which seems like a good value when the Saints seem to be a lock to win.

2 Team Parlay: New Orleans & Miami (Rating +2)

New Orleans won in complete blowout and Miami disappointed after scoring a TD with less than 2 minutes left, but gave up TD in the final seconds of the game. …

For any interested NHL fans, we are posting some free NHL picks and analysis at the following link:

www.theonetimer.com

The hockey season has already begun, but Thursday night will be the first night for games in the US and there is a strong pick already posted for the Bruins/Colorado game. Good Luck.

I also wanted to point out that there is a new poll over in the right column of the page. The question, which contender has faced the most heartache this season? The options: Chargers, Eagles, Saints, or Patriots.

The Broncos one the last poll, which was what team is most likely to win their division.  The options were the Eagles, Browns, Cardinals, Vikings, and Broncos.

Thanks for voting!…

The following will be updated and amended accordingly throughout the week, so stay tuned.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -8

My first impression was that the Saints will win, but won’t cover. They’re coming of a demoralizing loss where some flaws have been exposed. The Raiders are coming off the bye week. JaMarcus Russell has been playing well. The last time the Raiders were on the road, they nearly beat the Buffalo Bills. I have my doubts about the Saints after Monday Night, but this could be a statement game for the Saints. Their defensive woes and offensive miscues may continue, which could be more likely since the Raiders are good at getting pressure on the QB. They have 12 sacks on the year (with 1 less games played than most people), which is ranked 9th. If you add their 3.0 sacks per-game average, they would be 3rd behind the Eagles and Steelers. I guess I’m just looking for ways to avoid the Saints because I wouldn’t want to give up 8 points to any team the way the Saints are losing in close games. On the other hand, I wouldn’t rule out a Saints blowout either. This is just a do not touch game for me.

Prediction — Saints 28 – Raiders 17

Pick Against the Spread: Saints -8 – Confidence 3/5
Pick Straight Up: Saints – Confidence 5/5

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -4.5

There’s no question that the Ravens have the best defense in the league. They’ve given up only 3 TDs in 4 games. That’s ridiculous. The Colts haven’t been overly impressive. They’re 32nd against the run, so McGahee and McClain are completely capable of dominating the time of possession. The Ravens will go out …

Home-dogs came through again last week running my season total to 21-8, 72%. This week offers up several games, the most of any week so far.

1. Iowa at Indiana (+5): This is a game between two teams that simply cannot get going in the right direction. Iowa has dropped three consecutive games, 2 of the 3 losses coming on the road verse Pittsburgh and Michigan State. However, IU has lost the last three games as well, 2 of the 3 losses coming at home against Ball State and Michigan State. IU has won the last two meetings between these teams. This is a do or die game for both teams. Indiana’s offense has been able to average over 400 yards in total offense per game, while Iowa is just under the 400 yard mark. Indiana does have a balanced attack averaging just about 200 yards rushing and passing. I feel this game will come down to TOs and field position. IU made some bad mistakes early in the game verse MSU that eventually cost them the game. If IU can control the ball and avoid sloppy TOs then this game should be close. (Rating +2) IU had no answers for Iowa offense or defense, clearly a one sided battle. Iowa 45 IU 9

2. TCU at Colorado State (+15): This is clearly a trap game for TCU, if you look ahead on TCU’s schedule you see they only have five days between the game verse CSU and the game verse conference rival BYU, which will likely be a game that determines the conference champion. CSU has been really strong at home, 3-0 SU and 2-0 ATS. CSU is averaging 30 points per game at home compared to their season …