NFL Picks

Last week we only posted two picks, Steelers (-3.5) over Cardinals and Packers (-9) over Vikings. We split those picks, hitting on the Steelers, but falling short on the Packers who came away with a 6-point win. I didn’t care for too many games on last week’s card since I saw most as toss ups. There’s a handful of games that I like this week. There are several games on the cusp of being posted such as DET (-3) @ DEN, NE (-3) @ PIT, WAS @ BUF (-6), CLE @ SF (-8.5), IND @ TEN (-9), JAC @ HOU (-9.5), but I’m just not completely sold yet. Here’s what I got for you so far.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-13) @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

The Saints demolished the Colts last week and I didn’t want to pick the game based on my notion that the Saints don’t do well against high spreads. WRONG. They beat the Colts 62-7. What is this? Boise State vs. Colorado State? The Rams will likely be without Sam Bradford and their starting left tackle and former 1st-round pick Jason Smith is also doubtful. If Bradford is out, I would be all over the Saints. The Rams offense is anemic, averaging just 9.8 PPG. I can’t see them scoring more than 10 points without Bradford. The Rams defense is also giving up an average of 28.5 PPG. There hasn’t been a better team to bet against this year, the Rams are 0-6 ATS.

Prediction: Saints 34 – Rams 10

Free Pick Against the Spread: Saints -13 (Confidence: 4/5)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3.5)

I’m glad to see the Panthers get another win under their belts as they’re clearly playing better than their 2-5 record. They …

In the last three weeks we’ve posted a 6-4 ATS record for posted picks. I hit on my top play in the Oakland Raiders (-6.5) over the Cleveland Browns, but I fell victim to two upsets in the Bucs over the Saints and 49ers over Lions. In the pick ’em league, I did much better, scoring an 8-5 ATS record and moving up in the standings. The Bears and Jets were easy hits, so hopefully you played the the Sunday and Monday night games and made some easy coin.

After taking a quick scan at the week 7 lineup, there’s not much that I like. Most of these games I see as toss ups (Ex: Chargers @ Jets, Seahawks @ Browns, Falcons @ Lions, Redskins @ Panthers, Bears @ Bucs, Broncos @ Dolphins, Texans @ Titans).

We’re left picking from Steelers (-3.5) @ Cardinals, Packers (-9) @ Vikings, Colts @ Saints (-14). I’m not going to lay 14 to take the Saints, so we’re pretty much down to Steelers and and the Packers. Might as well stick to the two best teams playing this week.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-9) @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

It doesn’t matter if the Packers are playing at home or on the road, they are just dominating the NFL right now and easily looking like the NFL’s best team. They’re also 5-1 ATS this year. Green Bay destroyed the Vikings on the road last year 31-3. The Vikings will have to rely on their newly-named starter Christian Ponder to get something going for this struggling Vikings offense. Ponder will be making his first NFL career start and he didn’t fare too well against the Bears last week. The Bears limited the Vikings to 10 points while the …

We put the system to the test for the second straight week, this time coming out a tiny bit more successful than the first posting a 4-3-1 ATS record. This is what we have for Week 7, GOOD LUCK!

Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bears 23.18555 – Buccaneers 18.52264

Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers: Redskins 20.93795 – Panthers 18.83872

Seattle Seahawks @ Cleveland Browns: Seahawks 19.56502 – Browns 21.18917

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Arizona Cardinals: Steelers 21.31028 – Cardinals 16.486

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans: Texans 19.45904 – Titans 21.20014

Atlanta Falcons @ Detroit Lions: Falcons 17.56672 – Lions 32.7658

Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders: Chiefs 15.33188 – Raiders 34.61589

St. Louis Rams @ Dallas Cowboys: Rams 10.53784 – Cowboys 29.21914

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings: Packers 32.42156 – Vikings 18.55227

Indianapolis Colts @ New Orleans Saints: Colts 18.76741 – Saints 39.59327

San Diego Chargers @ New York Jets: Chargers 19.96875 – Jets 26.24908

Denver Broncos @ Miami Dolphins: Broncos 22.71929 – Dolphins 20.63871

Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Ravens 28.76889 – Jaguars 9.900965

Plays resulting from scores:

TOP PLAY (off the Vegas line by the most points):

Raiders (-4) L

OTHERS:

Lions (-3.5) L

Panthers (+3) W

Jets (+2.5) W

Cowboys (-11.5) W

Saints (-14) W

Ravens (-8)

Let’s hope for another successful week!…

We’ve put together back-to-back winning weeks in the NFL. In the last two weeks, we’ve posted a  5-2 ATS record. We’re looking to pull off a trifecta of winning weeks. I’ve got three picks for you this week and I’m liking them all, handing out 4/5 star picks like it’s Thanksgiving. Feel free to disagree, but we showed the haters last week who tried to call me out on my Chargers (-4) over Broncos and Bengals (+1) over Jaguars picks. This week I’m going with the Lions, Raiders, and Saints.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ DETROIT LIONS (-4)

I have been riding the Lions all year this season as I’ve been hyping them beyond belief the entire season. They’re 4-0-1 ATS. Why stop now? The Lions could very possibly have the best defensive line. Don’t think so? Name another. 11th in sacks, 4th in interceptions, 8th in forced fumbles, 12th in yards allowed, and 4th in points allowed. Does that sounds like the Detroit Lions to you? The 49ers have a very good defense too, no doubt about that. They’re 2nd in points allowed, 13th in yards allowed, and 5th against the rush, but you know what? They’re ranked 23rd against the pass, giving up 264.4 yards-per-game. And they’re facing some fella named Calvin Johnson and his 451 yards (90.9 YPG) and 9 TDs (1.8 TDs/Game).

I’m not overly impressed with the 49ers offense despite their dubious 28.4 PPG (ranked 7th in the NFL). Their yardage per game tells the true story (300 YPG ranked 27th in the NFL). They rely on the run where they’re ranked 12th to bail out their sorry passing game (ranked 27th). If there’s a team that can stop the run, it is the Lions who …

I did a little bit of research online and found out a way to calculate predicted scores of these NFL games by the week. This system goes off of both teams’ points forced, points allowed, the points forced by all of their opponents thus far, and points allowed by all their opponents this season. You end up getting an offensive and defensive number that tells you whether or not they’re performing up with the league average in offense and defense, therefore spitting out a score for the game. These are what I got for Week 6 along with plays:

Cleveland Browns @ Oakland Raiders: Browns 18.68 – Raiders 30.98

St. Louis Rams @ Green Bay Packers: Rams 11.08 – Packers 40.07

Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots: Cowboys 26.01 – Patriots 34.75

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Jaguars 8.14 – Steelers 22.42

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons: Panthers 23.90 – Falcons 24.48

Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals: Colts 12.9o – Bengals 30.61

Buffalo Bills @ New York Giants: Bills 35.76 – Giants 26.76

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Saints 32.11 – Buccaneers 21.14

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins: Eagles 17.23 – Redskins 24.19

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens: Texans 16.14 – Ravens 27.87

San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions: 49ers 22.34 – Lions 25.02

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears: Vikings 19.41 – Bears 21.68

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets: Dolphins 17.27 – Jets 27.87

Plays resulting from scores:

Raiders (-6) W

Packers (-14.5) W

Panthers (+5.5) L

Bengals (-7) *UPDATED LINE (-6) W

Bills (+3) P

Saints (-4.5) L

Redskins (+1) *UPDATED LINE (+3) L

Ravens (-6.5) W

4-3-1 overall — BIGGEST PLAY GREEN BAY WINNER

The score that produced that biggest difference from a Vegas …

A few people have emailed me asking what my pick is for tonight. I hate this game with the spread. I simply don’t see any value in taking the Lions -6.5. In order for me to take the Lions over the Bears, I would like the spread at nothing more than Lions -3.

As you know, I’ve been high on the Lions all season long. Before the season started, I went on record to say that the Lions will make the playoffs. If the Lions were in the NFC East, West, or South, they would quite possibly win the division. Unfortunately, the Packers are in their division preventing them from claiming the division title.

I see the Lions winning tonight’s game by 3-4 points and I’m not going to take the Bears on the road for the sake of taking points since the Lions do stand a strong chance of covering this spread. The Bears defense is too tough for the Lions to give up 6.5.

The over/under is set at a fair 47 points. It’s tough to tell whether you’ll get a shootout or a low-scoring game like these team’s contests last year. Last year these teams battled it out in a 24-20 game and a 19-14 game. The Bears won both games, but we all know that Calvin Johnson catch that TD pass with 0 seconds left that should have given the Lions the victory in the first game.

I don’t like the spread so what I will do is recommend a teaser of Lions +1 and over 40 for tonight’s game.

Prediction: Lions 24 – Bears 20

Pick Against the Spread: Lions +1, Over 40 (Confidence: 3/5)…

We followed up a 2-1 ATS week in week 4 with a 3-1 ATS week in week 5. To the comment trolls, STFU! I hit on my Patriots teaser with the over, as well as my Chargers and Bengals pick. My only miss was on the Giants.

My Top 4 Week 5 Plays:

1.) Patriots (-2.5/Over 42)

2.) Chargers (-4)

3.) Bengals (+1.5)

4.) Giants (-9.5)

Comment: LMAO DUDE, DUDE, DUDE. You are AS square as they come I personally guarantee a Broncos cover and the Jags will most likely cover their spread. What a joke of a site

Chargers 29 – Broncos 24

Bengals 30 – Jaguars 20

What’s up?…