NFL Picks

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7) @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

I always warn everyone to not bet against home dogs on Monday Night, but there are certain exceptions to that rule and one exception is if your quarterback is named Tom Brady. Tom Brady played the Dolphins in Miami on Monday Night last season and tore them apart, 41-14.

The Dolphins Chad Henne is not going to out-duel Tom Brady, but can he keep it close? That will be up to Miami’s defense. The Dolphins ranked 6th last year in yards allowed and 8th against the pass, so if there is a defense that can help their struggling QB cover by spotting him 7 points, it’s the Dolphins.

Despite those strong rankings, the Dolphins don’t have a formidable pass rush — something that’s necessary to defeat Brady (think Giants in the Super Bowl). I just don’t see the Miami defense slowing down Mr. Brady and company and I don’t see Chad Henne putting up impressive numbers against a good Patriots defense.

The Patriots have won 6 of their last 8 meetings. Tom Brady is 4-5 ATS in Miami though, but was successful in his last game. I’m sticking with the Patriots.

Prediction: Patriots 27 – Dolphins 17

Free Pick Against the Spread: Patriots -7 (Confidence: 4/5)…

In the pick ’em league, I went 7-5-2 for the week (see the leaderboard after the jump). My winners were Green Bay, Detroit, Washington, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Houston, and Dallas. My losers were Kansas City, Cleveland, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and San Diego. My pushes were Arizona and Tennessee. If you use the opening lines, my record would be 9-5 using Arizona -6.5 and Tennessee +2.5. A winning record overall, although the top 5 I listed were a dismal 1-3-1. There are always surprises week 1, why is why I play with nothing more than funny money until week 3 or 4.

Most people in the league got off to an ugly start. The best record so far has been DeezNuts and Big Moose at 8-4. Don’t forget to sign up to compete. Just because you missed out on week 1 doesn’t mean you still can’t compete. It’s a long season and includes the playoffs this year.

My top play in Arizona -6.5 over Carolina got lucky and hit on a 4th-quarter punt return. You catch a break (Arizona), you lose a break (Harvin kickoff return vs. San Diego).  I was not anticipating that type of debut from Cam Newton. Cam Newton throws 422 yards and 2 TDs in his NFL regular season debut. Are you serious? Cam Newton’s preseason numbers: 24/57, 42% completion percentage, 300 yards, 5.3 yards-per-attempt, 1 TD. Cam Newton’s NFL debut numbers: 24/37, 422 yards, 64.8%, 11.4 yards-per attempt, 2 TDs (passing), 1 TD (rushing), 1 INT. What a complete 180 he pulled on us.

San Diego’s cover was blown thanks to an opening kickoff return by Percy Harvin. The Chargers went 17-0 in the second half. The Chargers were the play to make in …

What a week two it was in college football. My “shot in the dark” college football picks went 3-2. My top play in Stanford -20.5 over Duke rolled 44-14. I’m loving this Stanford team this year and will be the first spread I look up in college football each week, but look for the generous spreads on them to end.

My pick in Iowa -6.5 over Iowa State went into triple overtime in a thriller.  California -6.5 was another pick that wound up in overtime. My last play of TCU +1 over Air Force and over 50 points both hit with TCU winning 35-19. Like I said, expect TCU to put up at least 30 while Air Force puts up at least 20.

My recommendation on the big Michigan vs. Notre Dame game was no action and you clearly saw why. The game was an instant classic, but if you had money on the game, you better get your blood pressure checked. 3 touchdowns in the final 2 minutes of the game. Are you serious? Another thriller to add to the crazy Georgia vs. South Carolina and Auburn vs. Mississippi State games. What an awesome week of college football.

For the NFL games this Sunday, I’m going to pick 5.  Quick plug for our PICK ‘EM LEAGUE before we get to the games. Sign up for a chance to win a free NFL Shop t-shirt.

I like Cardinals -6.5 over Panthers. Expect Cam Newton to make a few rookie mistakes in his first NFL regular season start on the road. His preseason stats don’t really whoo me. His completion percentage and yards-per-attempt numbers are dismal. The Cardinals pass offense should be solid this year with Kevin Kolb and …

Gentlemen,

With the NFL season kicking off tonight, I’ve renewed THEPASSRUSH.COM Pick ‘Em League for 2011. All members from last year should have gotten an email. If you want to track my picks and compete against me and other readers of the site, please sign up here. It’s free and prizes are on the line. The league ID and password are below.

The home page for the Yahoo Pick ‘Em is as follows:

http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem

To sign up, you’ll need the league ID and password.

League ID: 63470
Password: thepassrush

As always, the winner will get a free NFL Shop custom t-shirt with the team and player name of his choice. Could we officially crown the 2010 Champion? Where’s he at? Leave a comment.

Good luck gentlemen!…

Will Eric Berry be the defensive player of the year?

I am back with another season of NFL picks and predictions against the spread. We started the beginning of last season strong and then had our best days around Thanksgiving time. Rather than previewing every single game in the NFL, I’m going to focus on the top 3-5 games that I like. I apologize for the inconsistency in weekly postings towards the final stretch of the season last year, but work caught up with me. By focusing on just the top games of the week, I’ll be able to maintain the discipline for timely weekly write-ups. I also wanted to plug my NFL Fantasy Cheat Sheet — feel free to use that in your draft to check rankings and stats. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the action.

Check out my FINAL WORD for all applicable addendums and don’t forget to sign up for our PICK ‘EM LEAGUE.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6.5)

I love betting against bad teams and the 6.5 spread looks like a good play here since I’m sure it will move to Cardinals -7 by kickoff. You have Cam Newton’s NFL debut on the road. Rookies are prone to make mistakes in their debut and I think that’s what you see here. Newton completed just 42% of his passes in the preseason and has thrown just 1 TD. His yards per attempt is a dismal 5.3.  That comes out to a 64.9 QB rating. Compare that to Kolb’s 55% completion percentage, 8.9 YPA, and 95.3 QB rating. The Carinals were also the 1st-ranked overall and passing offense in the preseason if you want to put any weight into preseason numbers. The Panthers …

A good exercise to utilize before placing any bets on games is to write down what you think the line will be before seeing them. This will help you spot some value plays or help you think if you’re giving up too many points to pick a certain team. Based on some preliminary looks, I like Atlanta over Chicago, Kansas City over Buffalo, Arizona over Carolina, and New England over Miami.

One game where I was way off was New York Giants @ Washington. I thought Vegas may put the Redskins at 2.5-point favorites since they’re at home. New York Giants have a better team on paper, but I still like getting +3 at home in the opener. I love the way the Redskins running game was looking in the preseason and Rex Grossman looked great in his preseason start against the Steelers.

New Orlenas @ Green Bay
Expected Line: Green Bay -3
Actual Line:  Green Bay -4

Philadelphia @ St. Louis
Expected Line: Philadelphia -4
Actual Line: Philadelphia -4.5

Atlanta @ Chicago
Expected Line: Atlanta -3.5
Actual Line: Atlanta -3

Cincinnati @ Cleveland
Expected Line: Cleveland -4
Actual Line: Cleveland -6.5

Buffalo @ Kansas City
Expected Line: Kansas City -7
Actual Line: Kansas City -6.5

Detroit @ Tampa Bay
Expected Line: Tampa Bay -1.5
Actual Line: Tampa Bay -1.5

Tennessee @ Jacksonville
Expected Line: Jacksonville -1
Actual Line: Jacksonville -3

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
Expected Line: Pittsburgh -1
Actual Line:  Baltimore -2.5

Indianapolis @ Houston
Expected Line: Houston -4.5
Actual Line: Houston -6

Carolina @ Arizona
Expected Line: Arizona -7
Actual Line: Arizona -6.5

Minnesota @ San Diego
Expected Line: San Diego -7.5
Actual Line: San Diego -9

Seattle @ San Francisco
Expected Line: San Francisco -4.5
Actual Line:  San …

Excuse me for my extended hiatus during the final stretch of the season. What happened? Work happened. Thankfully Brandon’s SMART BET COLLEGE BOWL SPECIAL went an insane 9-2. Therefore, if you have been following our picks this season, you banked a ton of coin so be thankful.

What is the future of THE PASS RUSH? Well there is one final game in the football season until we’re left with a baseball season that is 60 games deep into the season with 102 games left while we’re left pulling our hair out until training camp begins. Will we be back for a fourth season of football picks and analysis? Only time will tell. Onto my thoughts for the Super Bowl.

When I handicapped this game before looking at the spread, I put the Steelers at 3-point favorites. However, the Steelers come into this one as 2.5-point underdogs. I found that surprising, but this isn’t a matter of who is right, but who the public is rooting for.

I don’t know about you, but I’m sick of the Steelers. This is their third Super Bowl appearance in the last six years. The thought of the Steelers in another Super Bowl makes me want to vomit. I am sure that everyone who doesn’t live in the western half of Pennsylvania will be Packers fans on Sunday. Everyone and their mother will be throwing money on the Packers hoping they will somehow top the Steelers regardless of whether they believe with cold-hard conviction that they will win. They want to put money on the Packers just to give themselves a reason to get worked up about this game.

I think the Packers can win, but I don’t think they should be favored here. …