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SMART BET COLLEGE BOWLS

Posted by in College Football Picks on December 6th, 2010 | 21 Comments

2011 College Bowl Game Picks ATSThe Bowl Season is upon us and I will be releasing as many picks as possible or at least my leans for as many games as I think have some value.  In general, you can be very successful simply betting the underdogs based on the past 25 years of bowl games.

Washington (+14) vs Nebraska for 2 units: The primary reason I am in love with this game is based on motivation.  Very rarely in college football do you get in season revenge game and that is exactly what you have here.  Nebraska humiliated Washington early this year on their own turf so you know Washington will come in completely fired up and focused.  Secondly, Washington made this bowl game by sheer determination and motivation to play in a bowl game so they will be very excited to be playing in this game.  Nebraska, on the other hand, has no motivation for playing in this game.  They are coming off a very tough loss to Oklahoma in which they could have been playing in a BCS game and now are playing in the meaningless Holiday Bowl.  In addition, the QB situation is totally up in the air for Nebraska.  So unless they resolve their team conflict issues, injuries, and find some motivation on the way to San Diego my money will be on Washington and the points.  Final Wash 19 Neb 7. WINNER

Notre Dame (+3) vs Miami for 2 units. We are back to the key ingredient of any bowl game here as we must focus on motivation.  ND has played very motivated after the death of the camera guy and the loss to Tulsa at home.  Whatever Brian Kelly did in that bye week really put this team on the right track.  Miami has lost their coach, their QB is banged up, and I believe that they had a lot greater expectations for their season.  I just don’t see much motivation for this Miami team as the season his been beyond disappointing.  Prediction ND 21-20.

Final ND 33 Miami 17 WINNER

Central Florida (+7) vs Georgia for 2 units. Prediction Central Florida 30-24. Looking at this game I find only one real strong advantage for Georgia, overall talent.  Obviously Georgia has better recruits and better players, they are in the SEC so that really goes without saying. However, UCF has played great football throughout the entire year. They control the clock with a great running attack and mix in enough passing plays to keep the opponent honest defensively. Defensively they have held their opponents to 18 pts a game, 100 yrds rushing, and 200 yrds passing, for college or pro those are some great numbers.  Georgia’s weakness is primarily their rushing D giving up over 150 yds per and UCF should be able to exploit them in that area.  I have UCF pulling the surprise upset here.

Final UCF 10 Georgia 6 WINNER

TCU (-2.5) vs Wisconsin for 2 units. Prediction TCU 33-25.  Final TCU 21 Wisconsin 19 Loss

Arkansas vs Ohio State (-3.5) for 2 units. Prediction OSU 34-21.

Final OSU 31 Ark 26 WINNER

Northern Illinois (-3) vs Fresno St for 1 unit. Prediction NIU 35-25 Final NIU 40 Fresno 17. WINNER

Florida International (+1.5) vs Toledo for 1 unit. FIU 29-28

Final FIU 34 Toledo 32 WINNER

Illinois (+1.5) vs Baylor for 1 unit. Prediction Illni 32-29

Final Illinois 38 Baylor 14 WINNER

North Carolina (-2) vs Tennessee for 1 unit. Prediction UNC 28-21

Final UNC 30 Tenn 27 WINNER

Virginia Tech vs Stanford (-3) for 1 unit. Prediction Stanford 30-24

Final Stanford 40 VT 12 WINNER

Boston College vs Nevada (-9.5) for 1 unit. Prediction Nevada 41-20.

Nevada 20 BC 13 Loss

Oregon (+3) vs Auburn for 1 unit. Prediction Oregon 34-30.

Several reasons to really like Oregon here. First off, Vegas doesn’t get a lot of things wrong when it comes to setting lines and they originally opened this line Oregon -3 or -2.5 and it immediately got pounded by wise guy bettors.  Within 30 minutes, here in Vegas, the line went from Oregon -3 to Auburn -1.  I know that linesmakers only care about getting 50% of the money on each side so they get their 10%, but that line says they thought Oregon should win the game and I can’t disagree.  Looking at both sides of the ball you can easily argue Oregon is better. Oregon averages almost 550yds of total offense, while Auburn comes in just under 500 yds and defensively most experts and the stats lean towards Oregon 327 to 354, respectively.  Now, you do have to factor in the conferences the teams played in PAC 10 vs SEC, but Oregon clearly was the best in their conference, while Auburn did win all their games they were not always the better team.  If Oregon can establish the run then they should be able to clearly exploit Auburn’s secondary.  This is only a 1 unit play and that is simply because of the talent and ability to win games that Cam Newton brings to the table.  Oregon will have to play great defense and keep at least one linebacker available to spy on Newton.  The other negative is Oregon’s fast offense.  If they score quick, which they seem to be really good at, that means their defense will be on the field a lot and against that Auburn team you could see them getting tired late in the game and if the score is close in the 4th quarter then I would have to lean towards Auburn sneaking out the win.  However, I think Oregon opens up early with the passing game and jumps out to early lead scoring quickly on their first couple possessions.  If Auburn isn’t able to answer those early TDs then that may be just enough for Oregon to hold on late and win outright.


I will do my best to give write ups for all these games and prediction on final scores.  Feel free to make comments or questions about these or other bowl games.



21 Responses to SMART BET COLLEGE BOWLS:

  1. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Dec 19, 2010 at 8:00 pm

    Easy winner with NIU last night as they routed Fresno State 40-17. Several more games on tap, make sure to get on board.

  2. MAC-DADDY

    Date: Dec 22, 2010 at 1:51 pm

    I don’t understand why everybody and their mother has Ohio State beating Arkansas. Ohio State is not as good as people think they are. Their defense hasn’t seen anything like Ark’s offense all year. Mallot will pick them apart. All the other picks I like.

  3. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Dec 27, 2010 at 1:40 am

    Another winner with FIU on Sunday as they came from behind to win 34-32. Several more games this week nice to start 2-0.

  4. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Dec 27, 2010 at 12:01 pm

    Georgia Tech vs. Air Force (-3) for 1 unit. This is a play on the more focused team. Reports show that 3 GT players are suspended for the first half of tonight’s game verse AF for breaking curfew, which tells me GT has not really come focused to play. I would guess they are out partying and having fun, not that I blame them, as the aren’t playing for whole lot tonight. GT is a suspect squad at best as they have been unable to deliver when they needed it the most. Neither team has a whole lot to play for here tonight, so I have to lean with the team that is more focused. I think a lot of these squads from smaller conferences come in with a chip on their shoulder when the play teams from the power conferences, so some motivation has to be on the side of AF. I look for AF to win 41-27

  5. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Dec 27, 2010 at 8:13 pm

    Final AF 14 GT 7. Winner. GT gave AF every opportunity to win that game, but AF simply couldn’t not take advantage until a second fumbled punt that gave AF the ball on GT’s 14, which lead to the subsequent score and 2-pt conversion.

    Bowl Record: 3-0.

    Tuesday’s play on Illinois is an early game, I believe 2est.

  6. Dan

    Date: Dec 29, 2010 at 5:00 pm

    Are you guys gonna post any NFL picks for the final week or have you completely given up? You suck….jackass

  7. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Dec 29, 2010 at 9:35 pm

    I rarely play the NFL and definetly not in the final week when most games are meaningless.

    Just follow the bowl picks which have been posted for almost month and cash some winning tickets as I am now 4-0 with the Illinois win on Wednesday.

    As always thanks for the comments.

  8. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Dec 30, 2010 at 11:01 pm

    Good thing you still get to cash a ticket even if you were completely lucky, but I will take it. 5-0 ATS for 5 units of profit.

    Washington up 10-0 early with Neb driving.

  9. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Dec 31, 2010 at 2:16 am

    Clean sweep on Thursday going 2-0 for 3 units of profit today. Overall 6-0 ATS for 7 units of total profit.

    Several key games on Friday with ND and UCF both 2 unit plays.

    Good Luck.

  10. gunny

    Date: Dec 31, 2010 at 8:18 am

    12-3 ats in bowls so far. Making some$ $$$

  11. gunny

    Date: Jan 01, 2011 at 10:41 am

    15-4 ats sc bit me but i’ll take the 15 wins I must say bowls have been easy picks so far but its about to get much harder

  12. TheMoose

    Date: Jan 03, 2011 at 4:34 am

    Great calls with the bowls games.

  13. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Jan 03, 2011 at 1:12 pm

    Thanks for the comments 8-1 for 8.9 units of profit. I am personally going large on the Stanford game as I just think they are clearly the best team in this match-up and arguably were the best team in the country over the last 5 or 6 games.

    Good Luck.

  14. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Jan 03, 2011 at 11:59 pm

    Huge beat down by Stanford over VT tonight running my record to 9-1 ATS in bowl games for a profit of 9.9 units.

  15. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Jan 05, 2011 at 12:42 am

    Ohio State dominated the first half, but we still needed a lot of luck to get the win and cover.

    Record 10-1 ATS in bowl games
    Profit 11.9 units

  16. c double

    Date: Jan 05, 2011 at 6:51 am

    @Brandon, nice calls mate, BIG props to yourself…I went big on Stanford with you so cheers!!

  17. fidg

    Date: Jan 09, 2011 at 4:13 pm

    when u gona post some playoff picks?

  18. Namtak

    Date: Jan 10, 2011 at 3:59 am

    Any write up on your pick on Oregon?

  19. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Jan 10, 2011 at 12:53 pm

    Sorry about the late write-up, but it is posted.

    Good Luck.

  20. fidg

    Date: Jan 15, 2011 at 9:25 am

    i guess your not gona pick nfl playoffs?

  21. Mark

    Date: Jan 19, 2011 at 4:36 am

    You guys going to pick NFL playoffs?

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