Football Picks Against the Spread

Florida International Golden Panthers vs. Toledo Rockets
Both of these teams are very happy to be playing in a bowl game this year. Florida International started playing their best football toward the end of the season. They finished their season with a very impressive 4-1 SU

Page won't be enough for the Rockets tonight.

record. On the other hand, Toledo lost their starting quarterback Austin Dantin during their match-up with Eastern Michigan, a game in which they came out victorious.

Toledo just isn’t that good on defense. They allowed 130 yards per game this year along with 25 touchdowns on the ground. The only thing they have going for them is their pass rush (irony), with 27 sacks on the year. So they do oppose at least a threat on defense. FIU made a very large improvement on its run defense cleaning up about 75 yards from what they allowed in 2009.

These two teams have split their two games from the past two seasons. I see Florida International still coming out on top tonight though. I see a lot of people on Toledo tonight, yes Page is very good and explosive, but just him will not win the game tonight for the Rockets.

Prediction: Golden Panthers 34 – Rockets 24

Pick Against the Spread: Florida International (-1.5)…

Utah Utes vs. Boise State Broncos (-16.5)

Here is some information about tonight’s game. Boise State’s defense is ranked fourth in the nation, that includes both scoring defense and overall defense. Utah will be in trouble if they look to run the ball tonight as Boise

Finishing fourth in the Heisman race, Kellen Moore looks to end the Utes' nine-game bowl win streak.

State is ranked sixth against the run. Kellen Moore finished fourth in the Heisman voting. Although he may not have the strongest arm, he makes great decisions and is very accurate throwing the ball. He finished with 3,506 passing yards, 33 touchdowns, and with those 33 touchdowns he only threw five interceptions. Utah was once ranked 6th in the AP Poll after opening up to an 8-0 start, saw their BCS Bowl dreams crushed with back-to-back losses to TCU and The Fighting Irish. They have won nine straight bowl games, with the first two actually being won in Las Vegas, where tonight’s game is being played.

Utah can play some stellar defense. It really just depends what team shows up. They allow under 20.0 points per game. As stated earlier, Boise State has a very good defense as well. The last time these two teams met, Boise won handily 36-3, and I see another similar score, low. Out of Boise’s last five games, four of them have gone under the total. Defenses will step up tonight.

Prediction: Broncos 35 – Utes 17

Pick: Under (58)

…

Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots

New England hasn’t been beaten at home in more than two years. Without Rodgers tonight, Green Bay really has no hope of winning this one outright. Cover the spread? Maybe. The Packers are simply a one-dimensional team and that won’t cut it tonight. The Packers don’t have a running game at all, and with Rodgers out tonight, their passing game seems hopeless also. I feel like this is a gimme game for New England, but they need to take

No Rodgers, No Chance

advantage so they can secure home-field throughout the playoffs. What might keep the Packers in this one is that they are only one game behind the Giants for the final wild card spot. In the Packers’ last two trips to New England they won 28-10 both times, but the last time they visited was 2002.

The Packers better pray that New England keeps turning it over. They’re going to need to be very successful on special teams. Without Rodgers tonight, I don’t see them putting up very many points unless it comes from the defense or special teams.

Prediction: Patriots 34 – Packers 17

Pick Against the Spread: New England (-14)…

I won’t be doing every game, instead just the games that I feel very confident about.

1:00 Games:

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals

There is one thing that stands out to me in this game, and that is that Colt McCoy will be the starter for Cleveland. It just seems like they have so much more success with him back there at QB. Being a Cleveland fan myself, I was always a little nervous when Delhomme was the started simply because it seemed like he threw an interception every other play. The Bengals do have more talent than the Browns, but they have been just terrible this year. Cleveland is also coming off a horrible loss in Buffalo. I see an ugly game here with Cleveland winning by a small margin.

McCoy will be a big reason for the Browns winning today.

Prediction: Browns 23 – Bengals 17

Pick Against the Spread: Cleveland (+1)

Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Can you believe Detroit beat Green Bay last week? I can’t. These two teams used to always play for the worst spot in the old NFL Central. This game means a lot more this year. With a Lions win, they eliminate Tampa Bay from any playoff hopes if they pull off the upset. Detroit has a terrible pass defense and which will allow Freeman to get his looks. I think Tampa’s run defense is worse though, and Detroit should be able to run all over the field. I see it going back and forth, but Detroit covering the spread.

Prediction: Lions 24 – Buccaneers 20

Pick Against the Spread: Detroit (+4.5)

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys

These teams are just playing for pride now. The Cowboys have some players that …

San Francisco 49ers @ San Diego Chargers

Both of these teams are surprisingly one game out of their divisions, but this is why I think San Diego is going to cover this spread.

Chargers win big tonight

The Chargers haven’t been beaten once this year, actually they’ve only beaten themselves. It’s a repeated trend that has hurt them dramatically this season. Special teams mishaps, turnovers, and being one of the most penalized team in the NFL doesn’t help either. When they play while making smart decisions and taking care of the ball, they’re virtually impossible to beat. So as long as they don’t make stupid mistakes, they should roll in this one. The 49ers have only had one big road win this year and that was in Arizona against the Cardinals.

Don’t take the 49ers defense lightly though as they are coming off a game where they had a season-high four interceptions.

Rivers has been playing like he should win the MVP this year, while Smith might be in jeopardy of losing his starting job. I see the Chargers getting up early and cruising rest of the way in this one. San Diego has beaten San Francisco in each of its last two meetings.

The Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games, 4-1 ATS in their last five as a favorite, and 11-4 in their last 15 games in December.

Prediction: Chargers 31 – 49ers 10

Pick Against the Spread: San Diego -9.5…

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We’re finally back to posting normal updates for the games. Last night I posted my picks for the 1:00 games and now we’ll look to see what’s on the menu at 4:00.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-9)

You are well aware that I’ve been riding the Saints since about week 8 on the theory that they would turn on the jets in the second half of the season. I was able to books wins on them with their wins over Carolina and Seattle ATS. However, despite winning their last two games, they just couldn’t get over the spread. They topped the Cowboys 30-27 on Thanksgiving. With the line at -4, it was a tough loss, especially since they jumped out to a 17-0 lead and took the game 20-6 into the half. The Cowboys battled back in the second half to get the cover. I then liked them against Cincinnati -6.5. Same story that game. Saints took a 13-6 lead into the half and jumped to a 20-12 lead after the 3rd until all hell broke loose in the 4th quarter and the game ended 34-30. The Rams have been a phonemal team to bet on this year and I have played them a few times over the last few weeks. Although they’re 7-5, they are a ridiculous 9-3 ATS. I like teams that are .750 ATS. The Saints have a losing record ATS at 5-7. I will take the points here, although the Saints will win this one at home. I say they win by 7 or 8. They’ll score a lot of points, but …

We’re nearing the end of the season as the cold weather hits us. Screw you Florida and California people. Apologies for the lack of full updates the past few weeks. If you were wondering why I’ve been MIA, there’s two reasons. I started a business recently which recently has “blown up” and I got engaged. Double whammy in such a short period of time. Things have been crazy work-wise but awesome. I’m going to do my best to produce a solid report. In order to break things up, I’ll post my 1:00 plays and try to get 4:00 done tomorrow. Looks like the Colts were an easy play tonight against a team on a 5-game losing streak. Let’s take a look at the Sunday games.

ATLANTA FALCONS (-7.5) @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

I’ve been riding the Falcons this season and very pleased with the results (8-4 ATS). I also love betting against the Panthers (3-9 ATS). I was about to write -9.5 as the spread without looking at the line. Therefore, some slight value in this play, especially if you can buy a half-point. Like all of the Panthers games, it should be a rout. 10-2 vs. 1-11 and just 7.5 points? Panthers season average is 12.8 PPG while their D gives up 25. With a line like this, you have to think, okay, whose injured? Tony Gonzalez is probable with a banged up ankle. No big deal (NBD). Falcons roll here.

Prediction: Falcons 31 – Panthers 13

Pick Against the Spread: Falcons -7.5 (Confidence: 4/5)

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-9)

I will take the points here if I have to choose the spread, but I like the teaser instead. Earlier in the season the Bengals won 27-21. Steelers were …