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NFL Weekend Preview: Thanksgiving Day Special

Posted by in NFL Picks on November 23rd, 2010 | 84 Comments

NFL Week 12 PicksThis series is brought to you by T.G.I. Friday’s, where every Sunday means Food, Fun & Football! Hut, hut, hut!

This past week was glorious as yours truly hit 4/4 for his top 4 plays this past Sunday. My biggest play of the day was Raven (-10) over Panthers. Gotta love betting against the Panthers this year. That was followed by my next biggest play of day Packers (-3) over Vikings. Two-for-two at 1:00. My 4:00 play was the Falcons (-3) over the Rams. Winner there. Topped that off taking my team, Eagles (-3) over the Giants. Boo yah! Like I said, I start getting on fire around Thanksgiving. Let’s take a look into this the Thanksgiving day games.

NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) @ DETROIT LIONS

The Pats are just favored by 6.5. Really? I love to bet against the Lions, especially on Thanksgiving. Won a lot of coin taking the Packers over Detroit last year. I would understand the line if Stafford was playing, but he’s not. With Shaun Hill at QB, the Lions have lost three straight. Losing to Dallas, Buffalo, and the Jets.  Detroit has averaged 17 PPG in their last 3 games while the Pats have averaged 28 PPG.

However, I’m not as confident this time around due to the Pats defensive woes. The Pats are giving up 24 PPG and 29 PPG in their last 3. Even with Shaun Hill, players like Calvin Johnson and Jahvid Best can always explode at home if the defense forgets to show up. Tom Brady is on fire though and Danny Woodhead is playing like an absolutely stud.  Count on at least 4 TDs from the Pats and don’t expect the Lions to catch up to them. I think this one will see some points and if you don’t want to take the spread, you can take Patriots outright with the over 43.5.  Pats should book at least a 24-20 or 27-17 win to cash the ticket.

Prediction: Patriots 34 – Lions 24

Pick Against the Spread: Patriots -6.5 (Confidence: 3.5/5); Teaser Patriots/Over 43.5 (Confidence: 4/5)


NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3.5) @ DALLAS COWBOYS

I’ve been high on the Saints in the second half of the year. They’ve won 3 straight and are 3-0 ATS in that stretch. I made coin on them when they played the Panthers. Betting on the Panthers is like shooting fish in a barrel.  Expect them to start getting +17 point spreads for the remainder of the year. Saints also just lit up the Seahawks. The Cowboys are now 2-0 since firing Wade Phillips and are playing inspired football for their young coach. The Cowboys have posted two-straight 31+ point performances defeating the Giants and Lions by double digits.

I still like the Saints here. The Saints defense has really stepped up, allowing just 10 PPG in their last 3 games. They gave up 10 to the Steelers, 3 to the Panthers, and 19 to the Seahawks.   Their offense has averaged over 400 YPG in their last 3 while the Dallas offense has averaged 300 YPG. This is a men against boys matchup and I expect the Saints to continue turning up the heat to make a real playoff push.

First the Giants were annointed the team to come out of the NFC, then it was the Eagles. Look for the Saints to be the flavor of the week as they come out on top in Dallas.

Prediction: Saints 34 – Dallas 27

Pick Against the Spread: Saints -3.5 (Confidence: 3.5/5)


CINCINNATI BENGALS @ NEW YORK JETS (-9)

What a melt down from the Bengals. When the Bengals were up 28-7, I’m sure everyone who took the Bengals (-5) thought they had a sure winner.  Apparently not so thanks to a historic defensive collapse. How do the Bengals give up 49 points to the Bills, led by a quarterback from Harvard. How does that happen? The Bengals have now lost 7 straight games and stand at 2-8 (3-7 ATS).

The Jets keep pumping out wins in dramatic fashion. After OT wins over the Lions and Browns, the Jets got off to an early lead against the Texans before the Texans put up 20 4th quarter points to take the lead. Thanks to the 4th quarter heroics of Mark Sanchez, the Jets engineered a drive with 50 seconds left to get the W. Unbelievable.

The Bengals shouldn’t be a 2-8 team. I just don’t know what their problem is. This is way too many points for me to take since with the Bengals offensive pieces, they should be winning games or at least covering 9 points against teams. Maybe last week was a fluke, maybe it wasn’t. The Bengals lost by 6 to both the Steelers and the Colts in the prior two weeks, so they can play good teams tough and have a great shot at covering in this one. The Jets also play in close games. You have to go back to October 3 to find a game where the Jets won by more than 9 points and that was against the Bills.

For the sake of calling this game, I’m going to say that the Jets win by 7 and the Bengals cover the spread, but I’m not going to take this game myself.

Prediction: Jets 27 – Bengals 20

Pick Against the Spread: Bengals +9 (Confidence: 1/5)


CONCLUSION

Enjoy some Turkey and take a shot on two road dogs in the Patriots -6.5 and Saints -3.5. They don’t warrant 4/5 ratings straight up like my 4-for-4 winners last week, but they’re strong plays at 3.5/5. I did give the Pats/Over 43.5 a 4/5 rating though since you don’t have to worry about the spread and I think this one will see some points. Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving!



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