Football Picks Against the Spread

Question: I need some help setting my fantasy roster for week 3.

Who do i start at RB? Pick 1.

Pierre Thomas vs. ATL
Deangelo Williams vs. CIN

Who do i start at WR? Pick 2.

Austin Collie @ DEN
Demaryius Thomas vs. IND
Donald Driver @ CHI

Best answer:

With Reggie Bush out, Pierre Thomas should be getting all of the carries for the Saints. I’m not sold on Williams with him splitting carries with Stewart and not getting enough goal-line carries.

Demaryius Thomas had an amazing week 1 with 8 catches and 97 yards. This guy has WR1 potential and will soon be ranked among the likes of Hakeem Nicks and and Brandon Marshall.

Add your own answer in the comments!…

Well Played Brandon.

So far, I’ve been cleaning up in college football. The NFL has been pretty damn hard this season, like any, and it just seems that it’s easier to gauge college football thus far this year. In the NFL, I was .500 in week 1 and followed that up going 2-0 for my two big Sunday plays, a lone miss on a small teaser, a stupid bet on the Sunday Night game, and no action on Monday Night. With the winnings from college and the Packers and Falcons plays from week 2, I’ve built up a solid bankroll for the remainder of the year.

As always in college football, you can always expect unprecedented upsets on occasion, but the majority of times, you know how things will typically go down. I would just like to start off by saying that I’m mostly on board with all of Brandon’s Picks. I would say that my favorite plays of his are Nevada and South Carolina. Here are my two cents on his games. I’ll be posting my thoughts on other games later.

• South Carolina (+3) over AUBURN — I’m loving South Carolina this year as they’re clearly the top team in the SEC after Alabama and Arkansas of course. Auburn is a tough place to play, but I’m thinking this is a “hangover” game for them as they’re spent from their come-back win over Clemson last week. South Carolina is clearly the better team. This one is only a matter of how important home field is a factor.
• Kentucky (+14) over FLORIDA — Brandon is hating on LSU and Florida this year so this pick doesn’t surprise me although this one isn’t for me. Kentucky is 3-0 this

After last weekend we are  moving in the right direction with 1.4 units of profit, bringing my overall loss to 2.6 units for the year. As a recent poster said, this a marathon and I have been known to finish strong so I have no problems with the slow start.

Week 4: I am releasing my plays very early as I want you to get the best line as possible. I will give detailed analysis of each game, but these are the games I am on. One thing before the pick, I have not had time to do a detailed analysis of suspensions or injuries, but I am not aware of any major issues in any of these games.

The Plays:

South Carolina (+3) vs Auburn for 2 units. This game lines up with several other games I am playing this week. One thing I like to look for, especially with underdogs, is comparing what the two teams do well and where are the weaknesses.  Both defenses are stout so this should be a low scoring affair.  Auburn rushes the ball very well going for over 250 yds. per contest.  However, SC’s run defense has been a wall, giving up only an average of 60 yds on the ground.  Look for a real defensive battle on that line when Auburn attempts to establish that rushing attack, got to give the advantage to SC with that incredible defense.  Auburn’s D, while impressive, is giving up an average of 21 points per (26, 14, 24) while SC’s D has given up an average of 12 (13, 6, 19).  SC’s offense has done a great job of controlling the clock and limiting TOs and if they can do that at Auburn they will …

Hope you followed and took our picks this week.

Wow. What a week huh? When asked to join this site last week and contribute my knowledge of college and NFL football, never did I imagine a first week like this. Let’s just take a look at some of the stats of this first week.

Joey G: 6-2-0 overall going 3-1-0 in college and 3-1-0 in NFL. Hope you took a look at my over/under special yesterday as it went 2-0-0.

The Kid: 3-2-0 yesterday hitting the majority of his NFL picks. Started 3-1-0 until that shocking blowout of the Colts over the Giants.

Vegas & Brandon: These two had an amazing college Saturday of picks. Nebraska, Alabama, Arizona, Boise St., Ball St. — all winners along with Vegas’s high confidence NFL plays.

Later in the week be sure to check for our Week 4 college picks and our Week 3 NFL picks. Saying this year has been a success would be an understatement at this point. I look forward to seeing what YOU think of our picks this week. Be sure to comment on anything.

Along with Vegas, I agree on the no action play tonight in the 49ers/Saints game.…

No action tonight? NO ACTION?!?

It was a hell of a week for us here at THE PASS RUSH. We produced Thursday Night and Friday Night winners, we had a plethora of hits on Saturday (I was 3-0 in Alabama, Nebraska, and Arizona; Brandon’s big play in play in Boise State hit, and more), my two big plays on Sunday hit in Green Bay and Atlanta, Joey G and the Kid hit the majority of over/under plays.

The only place where I ended up getting careless was not following my own advice and betting against the home dog, throwing Patriots (+4) into my 4-team teaser which the first three hit on. I thought the 2007 Patriots were back. I thought wrong. Since I was up big on the day, I decided to throw a little something on Sunday Night game. Thought the Giants could keep it close with the run game so I favored the points which I teased to +11 and paired with the over 41. I should have known better with the Colts being at home, but with their run D, I didn’t want to be left exposed at Colts (-5.5) and I thought the Giants would be like sharks who smelt blood in the water against a poor run defense. I’m not going to beat myself over a pick I gave a 1/5 rating on though.

Last week only reinforced the lesson that you don’t bet against home dogs. Home dogs who covered last week included the Jets, Bengals, and Lions. 3 home dogs, 3 winners with the spread (2 won outright). Washington (+3) was also looking golden and ended up pushing thanks to a 4th-quarter comeback by the Texans. Tonight we find ourselves in …

I guess you can’t win ’em all. While we won our two big games this week thanks to Green Bay and Atlanta, the Pats busted a nice 4-team teaser that I hit the first 3 picks on. You can’t say we didn’t warn you. I even called the Pats pick a “suckers pick” and that the game was on upset alert.  Looks like I’m the sucker. I also said don’t bet against home dogs and that saved you from taking the Ravens.  I should have listened to my own advice. What are you going to do? We still cleaned up with the rest of them. If I substituted the Pats, I probably would have went Panthers +3.5 and that wouldn’t have worked out either. I’ll take my winnings from the last four days and keep on trucking.

The Jets are another irritating team to try to bet on or against thanks to the inconsistent Mark Sanchez. Last week he plays like Ryan Leaf. This week he plays like Tom Brady while Tom Brady plays like him. Thankfully, sports books were so slammed at 4:00 that I couldn’t even put more on the Pats. Good dodge. Should have also stuck with Chargers instead of flipping on that one, but I gave it a 1/5 and said don’t play it. A lot of people were all over the Jags (+8) after Garrard had a nice game against Denver, but he threw 4 picks in this one.

Tonight there has been significant line movement with money pouring in on the Giants. The line opened at Giants (+5.5) and is now (+4). Will the Colts win? Probably. Will it be close? Likely. Can the Giants pull off the upset and win? I …

We're POPPING BOTTLES like we won a CHAMPIONSHIP GAME!

Today is looking good my friends. My top two 1:00 picks of Atlanta (-6.5) and Green Bay (-13) were right on point. Eagles (-4.5 or -6) was about to hit with a 35-24 lead until DET scored a TD in last two minutes and made it 35-32 with 2-pt conversion — good thing I don’t bet on my own team outright, but put them in my teaser card at (+0.5). Lions recover onsides kick. Are you serious? Riley Cooper muffs the grab. EAGLES STOP LIONS ON 4TH DOWN. HELL YEAH! WOOOOOOOOOOO!

I then threw the ATL and GB picks into a teaser and paired it with Eagles (+0.5) and that card is alive going into Patriots (-3) @ Jets. I have Pats (+4) as my last pick on that card and I’m even thinking of rolling some winnings from Green Bay and Atlanta into the Pats (-3).

The Kid’s top play of PIT/TEN under hit. They hit with CHI (+7) but missed on CLE (-2) and CAR (-3.5), but nailed CAR/TB Under to go 3-2. I had the Chiefs and I don’t think many people expected CAR to lose at home. CHI (+7) was the call and he was on the right side of that. I was expecting a better performance for DAL’s home opener.

Keep an eye out on the “take the points” special teaser on the next page . . . .

There’s plenty of worry about the Jets upsetting New England. Jets have back-to-back home games, the Jets have had this one on their radar since last year (but so have the Pats), and Vegas may favoring them with the opening line at (-1) before the public pounded …