Football Picks Against the Spread

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

I hope all of you have been following my picks since Thursday night. I am 3-1-0 ATS since joining this site and hope to make you guys some more money today. How about Vegas and Brandon though absolutely dominating last night? That’s awesome.

I hope you guys have taken a look at my over/under special today for the three NFL games that I liked.

Today though I was looking through the 1:00 games and found one that stuck out to me. I like the Carolina Panthers today against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Last week Carolina was playing right with the New York Giants all game and should have easily covered that spread, until they turned it over five times, not to mention letting Eli throw the ball all over them. There is no way that Carolina is going to allow Tampa Bay to force five turnovers out of them today.

Tampa Bay on the other hand was in jeopardy of losing outright in their opener, but then Jake Delhomme saved their game with his late interceptions and poor decision making.

Not only do I like Carolina in this game, but I like the under as well. Neither team could make it to 20 points last week. Plus the line movement opening at 39 for the total has been dropped down to 38.5 which is an indication that most people already see the under as a possibility. I sense maybe a 17-10 or 20-13 final today with Carolina coming out victorious.

KEYS: Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six, 4-1 ATS at home. Panthers thrive against NFC opponents ATS going 8-1 in their last nine. The under is 8-0 in Tampa Bay’s last …

I hope many of you are telling your friends about our site and are getting them into the betting ‘game’. Vegas, Brandon, Joey G, and myself are on fire right now. We have really come together and made some fantastic calls for you. We provide easy winners each week, tell your boys about our site.

Today is my favorite day of the week, NFL Sunday. Last Sunday I went 6-2 on my money picks. Check out my “The Kid’s Week Two ‘Sharp Play'”. That is my big play of the day. I see a few other small plays that I like today as well.

From strongest to weakest:

1. Play on the UNDER in the Tennessee and Pittsburgh game at 36. I love this UNDER as both teams put up very impressive defensive shows last week. Titans win this game 13-10 with an easy under winner. Enjoy.

2. Play on the UNDER in the St. Louis Rams and Oakland Raiders game at 37.5. This game should be another UNDER winner for you. Last week each team put 13 points. I do not see these offenses exploding today, the defenses will shut down the terrible offensives and go way under. Final score: Oakland wins 17-13.

3. Play on the Chicago Bears (+7) against the Dallas Cowboys. Chicago played well last week but I still don’t think they have you all convinced of what they can do. They will come in and give Dallas all they can handle. Dallas by 3.

4.  Play on the New York Giants (+5) against the Indianapolis Colts. Giants will give the Colts all they can handle. Eli Manning will hit the deep ball and then pound the ball on the ground today with …

Add another win to the list! Arizona topped Iowa to make my top 3 picks of the week hit. This comes straight from the list we posted after our Thursday and Friday Night winners.

• Nebraska (-3.5) @ Washington
• Alabama (-23.5) @ Duke
• Iowa @ Arizona (+2)

Brandon’s big play of Boise State (-24) over Wyoming also hit.

You’re welcome. Anyone want to buy a round?

What do I like tomorrow? I think you have to pick wisely tomorrow. I don’t want to bet against home dogs, which is why the Ravens (-3) and Pats (-3) are not getting my attention, although they may possibly be good picks to take. The best two home teams to take tomorrow are probably Green Bay (-13) over Buffalo and Atlanta (-6.5) over Arizona. Virtually all other games are good opportunities to take the points.

Houston Cougars @ UCLA Bruins

I am completely baffled by this line. I think that Houston should be a double digit favorite in this one.

Houston should cruise to an easy victory tonight in UCLA.

UCLA couldn’t even score a point in their home opener against Stanford. Their offensive confidence has to be at zero. They have turned it over seven times in two games! Houston has forced five themselves this season and should have a hay day (or night) against UCLA. Although Houston didn’t play a powerhouse in UTEP last week, they still managed to get 656 total yards which anyway should boost their confidence on offense.

After losing 35-0 in their home opener, all home field advantage has been lost in my opinion for the Bruins. This is Houston’s first road game of the season, but the Bruins are only 1-4 ATS in their last five at games at home.

UCLA seems to have trouble controlling the ball and with their turnovers should hand the Cougars an easy cover tonight.

Key Factor: Houston is 8-2 in their last ten non-conference games in September.

Play on Houston (-4)…

SHOOTER!!!

It was another phenomenal day here at THE PASS RUSH. Joey G and The Kid extended their winning streak going 3-0 ATS with a nice call of Central Michigan (-10) over Eastern Michigan. Well played sirs.

Meanwhile, yours truly, Vegas Martin won both of his big plays of the day with Nebraska (-3.5) over Washington and Alabama (-23.5) over Duke. Both absolutely blew out their opponents. They covered by something like a combined 50 points. I’m not even going to bother checking the scores because they’re too damn high and I don’t want to hurt my head thinking about how many points I covered by in each of those games.

If you won some money today, we would kindly like to request that you show some gratitude for our awesome ALWAYS FREE picks and buy us a cold beer. It’s always appreciated and it helps us keep this site running. Thank you. All you have to do is click the frosty mug and send us some love via PayPal.

Basically, if you took any of our picks this week, they were golden.

Early in the week, I also recommended Ohio State (-32) over Ohio and they covered as well. Many people questioned my tactics in laying a crap ton of points to take Alabama and Ohio State. Now I can tell you, that is why. I did not play Ohio State since 14 points would have given Ohio the cover, but Ohio State put up 43 points while holding Ohio to just 7 as I predicted would happen.

The fact that I said Alabama is due for at least a 40-spot is almost laughable now. I should have said they were due for a 60-spot against this …

Question: Start/Sit question? Forte or Leon Washington?

Should I sit Matt Forte against Pittsburgh for Leon Washington who is facing New England?

I’m worried about Jay Cutler’s impact on Matt Forte’s stats and obviously the Steeler’s defense. I think Leon Washington could be huge this season, plus the Pats “revamped” defense (which just lost Richard Seymour and Jerod Mayo) already gave up a big fantasy game to Buffalo’s Fred Jackson. Am I getting “too cute” here?

Answer:

Leon Washington is good and I like him too this year. But like you said, don’t get too cute. You probably got Matt Forte as your stud RB. Play him no matter what.

My concern with the Bears this year is that they’re getting away from what they should be. They’re a running team. Forte should be getting his carries. During the Sunday night game, it seemed like the Beers felt like since they got Cutler, they had to run the Broncos offense from last year. Denver ran that offense because they had strong WR’s. The Bears strength is their running game.

Know better? Leave your own answer in the comments!…

Central Michigan should have no problem winning by double digits today.

Central Michigan Chippewas (-10) @ Eastern Michigan Eagles

There is a particular MAC match-up that I see as an easy cover today. Eastern Michigan hosts Central Michigan today at 4 pm et.

I’m a big stats guy when it comes to making my picks, and here is what I found that gives me enough confidence to put money on Central Michigan today.

Central Michigan is coming off a tough 13-10 loss to Temple, which can probably be blamed on their three turnovers. Eastern Michigan on the other hand has lost their first two games, and has given the ball away six times compared to the two forced out of their opponents. Central Michigan’s rush defense has been sensational only allowing 49 yards on 34 carries in their opener, and then 114 yards on 36 carries (less than four yards a carry) in their tough week two loss.

Eastern Michigan seemed lost with their run game last week which already gives Central an advantage in that department. Eastern is going to have to heavily rely on their passing game today. They had a successful passing game in week two, but in week one they only threw for 31 yards. Inconsistency. Eastern has allowed over 180 yards of rushing in each of their first two games, so look for Central to try and take advantage of their poor rush defense. There is no indication of Eastern covering this ten point spread.

Key Factors: Central Michigan Chippewas are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, and are 5-0 ATS in the month of September.

Play on Central Michigan (-10)…