Football Picks Against the Spread

Some big over/under plays for 1:00 Week 3 of the NFL.

I hope you guys enjoyed three free winners this past week in the NFL. Cincinnati and Baltimore wasn’t even close. The Jets helped push the over with their fourth quarter touchdown. And thanks to the game winning field goal by New Orleans as time expired they were able to push it over the total by a few points. I also threw in an under in the Carolina/Tampa Bay game that hit, which made me 4-0-0 on the week in over/under calls.

Once again, I’m going to base my picks off of the trend. It seemed to work last week so why not try it again this week?

Look for a low scoring affair between these two teams on Sunday.

I’ve been researching all day on some of the most popular trends, and trends that are going to give us some winners.

Let’s take a look:

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens:

Key Trends:

• Cleveland under is 4-0 in their last four played in September.
• Cleveland under is 4-1-1 when a road dog of 10.5+ points.
• Baltimore under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.
• Baltimore under is 12-3 in last 15 games played as a favorite.
• Baltimore under is 8-3 in last 11 home games.
• Baltimore under is 9-2-1 in last 12 against AFC opponents.

Play on under (37)

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

Key Trends:

• Buffalo under is 4-0 in last four road games.
• Buffalo under is 5-0 in last five games as the underdog.
• Buffalo under is 6-1 in last seven games.
• Buffalo under is 4-1 in last five against an AFC opponent.
• New England under is 4-0-1 in last five games as a favorite of 10.5

Question: Which RBs do I start in week 3?

Here’s my squad.

Marques Colston
Santana Moss
Mark Clayton
Hakeem Nicks
Jeremy Maclin

I’m favoring them in that order. I just can’t decide because if I bench Hakeem Nicks, he’s going to get another 4 touchdowns and Jeremy Maclin is probably going to have the game of his career. I’ve tanked to 4th place and I’m playing the #1 guy in our league and I want to dominate this game.

Answer:

Are you serious? Benching Nicks and Maclin for Santana Moss and Mark Clayton? That’s nonsense. You have to start Colston, Nicks, and Macline. That is a hell of a WR group.

What do you think? Answer below!…

Tom Brady: "Iceman (sniff, sniff), you stink."

I’m trying out something new this week and that’s breaking up my picks into 1:00 games and 4:00 games. We covered 1:00 games yesterday, let’s see what’s good at 4:00.  We have 4 more home dogs coming up at 4:00, so the home dog theory is in full effect this week. Let’s see how it works out in week 3. I’m picking against all of them which may make me look like a genius or idiot. We shall see. I’m not sure if any are worth a shot for my money, but you’ll have to decide on that. Proceed with caution gentlemen. This time slot’s theme? TOP GUN. Highway to the Danger Zone music video is after the jump for your enjoyment.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-3.5) @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

You see over and over again, absurdly low spreads when road teams are favored. Why is this? To sucker people like you in. Everyone is going to be taking the Redskins here. How can you not like the Skins against the Rams, right? They have a very good defense. Sure that gave up 30 the Texans including 20 in the second half, but the Texans are a top 5 offense in the NFL thanks to Andre Johnson, who had 12 receptions for 158 yards in that contest. I can understand the books expecting the Redskins to come out flat after last week’s tough loss, but I expect Donovan McNabb to pick apart the Rams defense while the Rams’ Sam Bradford struggles against a typically tough defense. Bradford has posted QB ratings of 53 and 86 so far this year and has 3 TDs to 4 INTs, but really should only have 3 INTs …

In tonight’s nationally televised showdown, I am making a small play on the Pittsburgh Panthers at (+4). There are a lot of trends that most of you are probably going to go by, but i don’t like too many of them. I like the Panthers tonight at home in their first HOME test of the season. Pitt played tough on the road at Utah but came up just shy of a victory. Pitt’s running game has not been where they want it to be so far this season. I’m looking for a big game tonight out of the nation’s leading rusher from ’09, Dion Lewis. Lewis has been held to only 102 yards on 35 carries thus far, this season. Dion Lewis will be the X-factor in tonight’s game if they want to come away with a win. The Panthers will come out with fire and intensity at home and look to make a statement on national television.

Here are some trends that should give you a little more incentive:

Pitt is 7-3 in their last 10 home games ATS

Miami is 3-13 in their last 16 ATS off of a bye week

Pitt is a HOME DOG (Vegas Martin)

Like I said, don’t get too caught up in these trends. Read the article and take Pitt for a small winner tonight.

Final: Pittsburgh 27-21 over Miami…

Miami Hurricanes @ Pittsburgh Panthers

We’re in for a treat Thursday night when the Panthers host the Hurricanes. These two teams haven’t met since 2003 when Miami topped them 28-14. Miami is coming off a bye week and got that extra week to recover after that 36-24

Pitt looks to celebrate a victory tomorrow under the lights.

loss to Ohio State. And if you think about it, the Miami/Ohio State game should have been a lot lower scoring, but Miami had four crucial turnovers that led to some easy Ohio State scores. Miami’s defense has had that extra week of rest and has their work cut out for them with Pitt as they average 31 points a game.

Ok now let’s talk about some of the major reasons why I like the under besides the stats. The line opened up at a total of 55. If any of you have been following the line movement you’ll notice it’s down to 50. Now for all you mathematicians out there that’s a difference of five points. FIVE! Jump on the under. If there’s one play that I think will hit for sure this week it’s the under in this game. You might hear people “oh they put up 24 against that stifling Ohio State defense” and “oh Pitt is average 31 points per game how can you take the under!”. Well don’t be fooled.

Key Trends:

• The under is 7-0 in Miami’s last seven against Big East opponents.
• The under is 10-4 in Miami’s last 14 Thursday night games.
• The under is 10-4 in Pitt’s last 14 Thursday night games.
• The under is 5-1 in Pitt’s last six following a win in the previous week.

Play on under (50) Confidence (4/5) (Winner)…

Do I have your attention?

Last week we hit our top 2 plays in Green Bay (-13) and Atlanta (-6.5). Why did we hit these? Because we looked for the best home teams to take and of course stayed away from betting against home dogs. Although the public was all over the Patriots, Ravens, Eagles, and Saints, they all failed to cover the spread against the home dog. We hopefully kept you away from those sucker picks and steared you in the right direction with Green Bay and Atlanta. Although, I was the sucker who added Pats (+4) to my teaser which I hit 3/4 on. “If the Patriots lose this one, it’ll be by less than 4,” right? Wrong. Don’t bet against home dogs.

Here are my week 3 NFL picks against the spread. We’re doing things differently this week, we’re splitting the picks into 1:00 games and 4:00 games. 4:00 games come out tomorrow, so be sure to return for those.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3)

Atlanta looked hot at home last week, but struggled on the road against a tough Pittsburgh defense. This just goes to show you how important home field advantage is or maybe the Cardinals are truly horrific. The Saints haven’t scored points in prolific fashion like last year, but they’ve faced the Vikings and 49ers. That’s excusable. The Falcons D must be respected. They’re a good squad. This one looks to be close with the spread and I really think you’ll end up pushing here. Should be a great game to watch. This and Cowboys/Texans is what will have my attention this week at 1:00.

Prediction: Saints 27 – Falcons 23

Pick Against the Spread: Saints -3 (Confidence: …

Here are some week 4 college picks which caught my eye.

I already posted my two cents to Brandon’s week 4 college picks and we covered a lot of ground this week. As I mentioned there, Brandon and I really like Nevada (-4) and South Carolina (+3). I’m just going to scan through the rest of the spreads and see if anything excites me. Like I mention at the end, this is based off a quick scan so make sure you do your own due diligence before taking any of these picks.

We start of Thursday Night with Miami Hurricanes (-3.5) @ Pittsburgh Panthers. My first impression was Hurricanes, but you know the story — don’t bet against a home dogs in a primetime games (e.g., 49ers cover against Saints). However, college football is different. We played against 3 home dogs last week and we brought home the bacon in all three — Alabama (-23.5) over Duke, Boise State (-24) over Wyoming, and Nebraska (-3.5) over Washington. This is a pretty even matchup if you ask me although I give the edge to Miami. They have the better defense. I think this one ends up a 24-21 or 24-17 game with two respectable defenses. The  under 50.5 looks good.  The under 57.5 looks like an absolute lock if you want to tease that up to take the under and then take Miami at +3.5 or Pitt +10.5 depending on your stance. That’s your call.

I think you can take a shot on TCU (-18) over SMU Friday Night as a small play. TCU is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 and 6-2 ATS on Friday nights. This one is at SMU, but no biggie. SMU’s offense hasn’t been bad, …