Football Picks Against the Spread

If I told you the Browns were one of the best teams in the NFL to bet on ATS in 2009, would you believe me? No, but they were. Despite the Browns 5-11 record, they were 10-6 against the spread, which puts then in the top five behind Green Bay (11-4-1), San Fransisco (9-4-3), and Atlanta (11-5). Here is some very interesting information that you will want to consider when making your picks for the remainder of the year.

Top 5 2009 NFL Teams Against the Spread

1. Green Bay Packers — 11-4-1 (.733)
2. San Fransisco 49ers – 9-4-3 (.690)
3. Atlanta Falcons — 11-5 (.687)
4. Cleveland Browns — 10-6 (.625)
5. Indianapolis Colts – 10-6 (.625)

Worst 5 2009 NFL Teams Against the Spread

1. Detroit Lions — 4-10-2 (.285)
2. Jacksonville Jaguars — 5-11 (.312)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers — 5-10-1 (.333)
4. Seattle Seahawks — 6-10 (.375)
5. New York Giants — 6-9-1 (.400)

History lessons are always nice. As you can see, even if you’re taking the top teams to bet on, your winning percentage like falls in the .600’s.  NFL Week 3 picks will be posted tonight or tomorrow. I may also be bringing on more contributors to THE PASS RUSH.

Other 2009 NFL Trends Spotted

• Best Home Team ATS: Atlanta Falcons (6-2)
• Worst Home Team ATS: Tampa Bay (1-7)
• Best Road Team ATS: Indianapolis Colts (7-1)
• Worst Road Team ATS: Seattle Seahawks (1-7)

Continue to see full 2009 NFL standings against the spread »…

Until further notice, Alabama looks like the play this week.

We had a big Saturday last week with 2 big wins, but we lost a little juice in the NFL. Won on Miami, lost on San Fran. Won on Ravens, lost on Chargers. We ripped off two college wins in week 2 action and that’s what is making me think that college football is where I need to be looking at. The Sooners and Crimson Tide came up big as I suggested and I looked at only the top 4 college football games. Let’s see what big games are on tap in week 3.

We start off on Thursday with Cincinnati @ N.C. State (-2). Both teams have shown that they’re able to score, but both have very poor defenses, so I’m looking for a close higher-scoring showdown. Based on that, I’ll be curious to see the over/under is because I’ll think anything under 47 points is worth taking a deeper look into.

If you’re looking to ride Ohio State, you’ll be giving up 31-32 points to take them at home against Ohio. Considering that they’ll win by something like 42-3, it looks like a win, but too many points for my taste. I don’t take many high spreads like this one. If Ohio manage just 13 points, they should cover.

Maryland (+11) @ West Virginia is interesting. Maryland has impressed me with a big win over Navy while West Virginia just lost to Marshall. This could be a rebound game for WVU, but I think Maryland with +11 is enticing. I’ll wait to see what Brandon likes because his specialty is finding good underdogs to take. After looking at the injury report though, you will want to hold off …

A new commercial is out for ESPN’s Sunday NFL Countdown. It’s hysterical. I agree with Keyshawn, eggs are very versatile — flexibility is key!!

We booked a MNF win thanks to the Ravens (+2) who won 10-9. We all knew it would be a tight game, which is why my bet on this game was negligible, but we got some back after that dissappointing “nobody saw it coming” 49ers loss. However, we rattled off three big wins earlier with the Dolphins at 1:00 and the Crimson Tide and Sooners on Saturday. I have another small bet on Chargers (-5.5). They drew blood first gaining a 7-0 lead before Jamaal Charles ripped a 54-yard TD to tie it up. We’ll see what happens. It’s now pissing rain, so this one could get ugly. Rivers just threw a pick and the Chargers also fumbled.

For now, enjoy a funny commercial for NFL Countdown. I’m anticipating a higher quality video being available tomorrow morning.

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Miami secured the 15-10 win.  I had Miami at -3 and was pretty pissed when the Bills scored a TD on 4th and 11 to make the score 13-10. The Dolphins pinned the Bills down on their 1 and got a safety in the final minutes of the game for the cover for anyone who had the game at -3 or -4. I was expecting more from Miami’s offense, but a win is a win, and I’ll gladly take it.

I’m now hoping the 49ers at -3 can deliver another big win at 4:15 game. I cleaned up on two college games yesterday with my picks of Alabama and Oklahoma. We won the 1:00 game. We’re hoping for a 4:15 win to come out of the weekend 4-0.

Come on 49ers. Go Eagles. Good luck everyone!

5:15 Update: This 49ers game is irritating the hell out of me. Although they’re up 6-0, they could easily be up 21-0. They had a TD overturned and had to settle for their first field goal, they went for it on 4th and 1 on the 6 and couldn’t pick up the first down. They had a 3rd and 1 on the 1-yard line and couldn’t get the ball in and settled for a field goal. With Gore and their line, I don’t know why they’re not winning the battle in the trenches. Let’s go San Fran.

5:35 Update: To make matters worse, Seattle put up a quick score to make the game 7-6 and then intercepted the ball on the 49ers next drive in their own territory which led to another TD. It’s now 14-6. A lot of bad breaks in this game. Completely unacceptable.

6:00 Update: 49ers start the second half …

Sooners: Oh yeah!

I’m playing two games today and that is Oklahoma (-9.5) over Florida State and Alabama (-11.5) over Penn State. I’m sorry I couldn’t do a preview for the top 4 games that were on tap this week, which I said my piece about early in the week (it was a crazy week work-wise). Based on that little write up, I hope some of you were able to capitalize off the Sooners big win.

The only college game that I previewed was Michigan (+4) vs. Notre Dame since that’s what people indicated they were most interested in. I personally didn’t take this game since I didn’t want to bet against the Irish at home, but I picked Michigan +4 and that pick is looking pretty good with Michigan up 21-17 with 5 minutes left.

The Sooners absolutely demolished Florida State as I predicted would happen. People got down on them too much after they didn’t whip Utah State. I knew Bob Stoops would have them ready this game. Here’s what I had to write:

Despite Oklahoma not crushing Utah State this past week, I think Oklahoma has no problem covering the 9 points in this game. Florida State gives up a lot of points. Last year Florida State gave up 37 to Florida, 38 to Miami, 49 to Georgia Tech, 27 to North Carolina, 40 to Clemson, and 26 to Maryland. At home, Oklahoma is due for at least 35 and I don’t think the Seminoles can put up 24 against a Sooners defense that will be better prepared by coach this week at home.

Oklahoma is up 47-10 at the time of me advocating my foresight.

In other Pass Rush news, Brandon’s pick of South Florida …

Who would have thought the difference in this game would be between 4.5 to 5.5 points. With the score deadlocked at 14-9 throughout the game, that point made all the difference. One point! For those who had the game at -5.5, don’t send too much hate mail to the Saints kicker, who missed 2 field goals including a 32-yard chip shot.

Tonight’s lesson: Always shop around for the best line.

Covers.com allows you to do just that. While the Hilton had this game at -5.5, the Mirage had it at -4.5. If you bet online, BetUS had this game at -4.5, while Bodog had this game at -6.

Hopefully you took got that game at -4.5 or -5. Brandon and I got this one at -5 where most books had the line before kickoff. A day too late from getting it at -4.5, which would have brought in a very nice win. The Yahoo Pick ‘Em League had this spread at -5 so nobody came out ahead. It was a plain, old vanilla push! However, you also have to consider yourself lucky if you did take that line because the Vikings missed an extra point which would have given the Vikings the cover with the 4.5 or 5 points.

That’s the NFL for you and that’s why Vegas employs professionals to come up with the lines.

By the way, Brandon has a ton of college games to look at and my NFL Week 1 picks are there.…

Mike Tomlin loves THE PASS RUSH!

We are less than an hour away from kickoff. The Saints are ready to take on the Vikings in New Orleans and I’m taking the Saints -5, which I’m giving a 3/5 rating to. This is the Saints SuperBowl homecoming and that place is going to be off the hook. I heard today that the last 10 Super Bowl Champions have never lost their season opener the following year. I didn’t look into that one. You may want to prove me wrong on that one, but regardless of whether it’s true or not, you should definitely expect the Saints to come out on top. Whether they will cover is a different story. The Vikings covered 3.5 in the NFC Championship, but I’m looking for Favre to take a step back this year now that he’s a month away from turning 41 and without Sidney Rice.

What I wanted to mention though was to make sure that your picks are in for THE PASS RUSH PICK ‘EM LEAGUE. It’s not too late to sign up! Simply visit this link, put in 10945 as the league ID and type in the password thepassrush. The winner of the league will get a free NFL Shop custom t-shirt and their team name engraved on the right of the page for eternity. It’s a pretty awesome deal.

If you don’t get your picks in, don’t worry, there are only 255 more games for you to pick in the remainder of the season. Thanks to the 30+ players who have already signed up. See ya in the pick ’em league gentlemen. Best of luck to everyone this year.

WE GOT THAT POWER

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