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SMART BET WEEK 2 College Football Preview

Posted by in College Football Picks on September 8th, 2010 | Comment »

Current Record:

1. South Carolina Winner for 1 unit

2. Western Michigan Push

3. Washington Loss for 1.1 units

4. Missouri Loss for 1.1 units

5. Teaser (2to1 odds) Maryland, Boise State, and Over Winner for 2 units

Overall Profit 0.8 units

Week 2:

1. South Florida +15 at Florida: Overreaction beware! There are several games this week where there seems to be an overreaction.  For example Oklahoma vs. FSU, Memphis vs. ECU, and USF v UF.  Teams that played poorly or extremely well in week 1 are now either favored by more or less than you would have expected going into week 1. In the game at hand, Florida played very poorly in the opener. However, that was expected by most.  There are going to be some growing pains for this Gator team and their poor play on Saturday didn’t surprise me at all. I do expect to see much better play for all critical positions this week verse USF.  However, USF is a team that I fully expect to have one of their best years.  I think USF has a great chance to win this game outright. They return most of their squad from a year ago. They do have a new coach this year, Skip Holtz, and he gets the most out of his squads and I expect much of the same in South Florida this year.  Look for USF to keep this game close throughout and I wouldn’t be shocked to see an upset here.

The Play: South Florida +15 for 1 unit

Kent St (+17.5) at Boston College: A well balanced offensive attacking Kent State team travels to BC for a game that BC may be overlooking as they face VT a week from Saturday.  Kent State returns a strong starting offensive line and great RB in Eugene Jarvis.  BC is playing their second straight opponent that they don’t expect to challenge them on either side of the ball.  BC is clearly the better team, but if you followed Kent St at all last year you know they are improving.  They should have played in a bowl game last year, but fell short because of a couple tough losses.  I don’t expect to see a huge effort out of the BC squad and Kent State is good enough to take advantage of a few teams this year.  Look for Kent St to keep this close throughout.  Final 34-24 BC, I’ll take that TD cushion.

The Play Kent St +17.5 for 1 unit.

Syracuse vs Washington (-13): Last week my strongest play was on the Huskies, but they failed to cover or get the win at BYU. Now there is two ways you could look at the result of that game, (1) I overvalued Washington and the play of Locker, or (2) that I undervalued BYU.  I am leaning towards the later. The Huskies did have two chances to take the lead late in the 4th quarter, but the BYU defense stayed strong. Maybe it was a lot to ask for the Huskies to go into BYU and win outright.  BYU has been one of the most consistent teams in football over the past 5 years, so maybe I was asking too much.  I still think this Washington team is solid and that Locker is still one of the best QBs in all of college football.  On the other hand, Syracuse played terrrible against one of the worst teams in football. Syracuse had 3 turnovers in the first half, but Akron was only able to manage 3 points.  Syracuse now travels cross-country to play the Huskies; a team that will most assuredly score more than 3 points if they can cause a couple turnovers. I look for the Huskies to take out some of the frustration of last week’s lost on the Cuse and come away with a big win. Final score 41-13.

The Play: Washington (-13) for 1 unit.

UAB (+12.5) vs SMU: I started this post by stating beware of overreaction and I believe this may be the biggest overreaction of the week. If I would have asked you to give me a line for this game before the teams took the field last week you probably would have given UAB 6 or 7 points, but there is no way you would have given them 12.5.  Bettors pounded UAB last week, moving the line from 10 or 11 to 13 or 14 (depending on where you were at) and they lost outright to probably one of the worst teams in football FAU. However, the key to that game was 3 big plays by FAU, 2 long passes that led to TDs and an interception returned for a TD. If you take out those 3 plays you would have a statistical blowout by UAB. Their defense was solid against the pass and run, caused several turnovers and played a solid game with the exception of the two big pass plays. It was week one and I am willing to overlook those mistakes and take advantage of GREAT line value here this week.  SMU is also coming off a tough loss in which they had a legitimate chance to tie the game late in the 4th, but came away short due to an injury to their starting QB. Everything I read following the game was how banged up, tired, hurt, and injured that SMU team was after the game. Their QB had to be removed from the game due to an injury to the ribs, he is probable for this week’s game, but according to coach Jones, the QB played most of the game injured. Bottom line that takes a lot out of a team and it could show up in a potential lackluster effort this week by SMU. Since SMU played so well against TexTech it isn’t surprising that they come in highly valued, but I am not convinced that TexTech or SMU are very good teams. I easily see both of those teams ending the season near or below .500 and potentially playing in average bowl games.  Therefore, in my shocker of the week, I have UAB pulling off the upset.

The Play: UAB (+12.5) vs SMU for 2 UNITS

The Play: UAB (+350) vs SMU for 1 Unit (moneyline)

West Virginia (-12) at Marshall: Most of my success over the years has come by playing dogs and hopefully that will continue this week, as posted above, I believe I have several live dogs that may pull off some big wins this weekend. However, tonight is not the night.  This Marshall team is weak at best. Yes, they did play Ohio State and should have and did get blown out.  I just don’t see how tonight is that much of a difference. WVU’s offense is pretty similar to that of OSU, with possibly a better running back, but weaker QB.  The key will be WVU’s defense, but they did look strong against a very very weak Coastal Carolina squad last weekend. Marshall is making a large step up in class tonight and i just don’t see them really being competitive in this match-up. Therefore, I will lay 12 points with WVU and hope they roll to a big win. Prediction WVU 42-14.

The Play WVU -12 for 1 unit.

Check back for updates throughout the week.

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