Football Picks Against the Spread

Ochocinco and the Bengals have a tough divisional rival game this Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens.

After researching for some big NFL Week 2 winners, I found some very interesting trends that you guys might want to take a look at, and even put money on.

I have only been working for this website for two days, but last week I put money down on three over/under bets and went 2-0-1 (just to note the push of the San Fan over of 37, it was 28-6 with nine minutes remaining in the third quarter and both teams only managed to score three more points the rest of the game, so that was upsetting). Now all three of those bets that I made were because I found some very intriguing trends between the teams matched up.

Let’s take a look at some of my favorite over/under picks for week two:

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (o/u = 40):

Top Trend: Cincinnati games against division opponents have gone under 11 of the last 12 games played within the last three seasons.

Notes: Did you not see Baltimore’s defense Monday night? They haven’t lost a beat. Cincinnati needs a much better first half.

Play on the under.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets (o/u = 38):

Top Trend: 12 of the last 14 New England games against conference opponents have gone over.

Play on the over.

San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints (o/u = 44):

Top Trend: Off a division game, San Francisco has had 10 of their last 11 games following go over.

Notes: Don’t be fooled by the slow start that Drew Brees and the Saints got off to in week one, the majority of week one games do …

After we started the day last Saturday 2-2 we had a great chance to end the day with a profit, but UAB failed miserably in the 2nd half, leaving me down 4 units for the season. There is still a lot a research to be done for the week ahead, but a couple games I am getting on early and I think you should too.

Boise St (-24) at Wyoming: My forte does not come in the form of playing road favorites, as documented through my time here at thepassrush, but this is a must play for me. Boise St pulled out the dramatic outright win over VT in week 1 and as I have stated several times this is BSU’s best chance at winning the National Title and there was no better way to start the season than with a solid win over a nationally ranked and recognized program. However, VT forgot that their season wasn’t over and needed to show up in week 2 and suffered the worst defeat in school history. The important question is where does that leave BSU? Without VT’s loss, BSU still needed and needs to dominate the rest of their schedule and if you think that BSU’s Coach doesn’t know the line for this game at Wyoming you are nuts. For BSU to have any chance at the National Title it is now more important than ever for them to absolutely blow teams out. Even one weak game against a weak opponent means they will not be playing in the Title game. Therefore, I fully expect BSU to win by 40+ in the game against Wyoming.

The Play: BSU (-24) for 1 unit.

Ball State (+17) vs Purdue: First off I just …

Very tough week. The home dog factor is messing with my head.

We’re back for our week 2 NFL picks. As many of you have already seen and commented on, we’re bringing on a new contributor to THE PASS RUSH. Brandon and I have teamed up for the last four years to provide weekly NFL and CFB picks against the spread with outstanding analysis. Although we’re expected to post winning percentages close to the 1990’s Chicago Bulls, we’ve still achieved solid success with our picks, but we’re obviously in this game to provide more consistent winners and I believe that the contributions from Joey G and the Kid will help accomplish that. Catch their introduction to the site.

Last week I came out 10-5 straight up and 5-5-3 ATS in the NFL. Not bad, but we need that winning percentage to get above .550. You’ll be able to follow our picks in the Pick ‘Em league. It’s never too late to sign up. League info is on the right above the latest articles.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-1) @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Obviously everyone is going to say go Ravens after their big MNF win against the Jets and the Bengals embarrassing loss to the Patriots. With 90% of the money pouring in on the Ravens, why is this spread at Bengals +1. Wouldn’t you think that the Bengals should be getting at least 3-4 points in this contest? One thing to consider before jumping the gun on the Ravens is that the Ravens are playing back-to-back road games and are on a short week. Advantage Bengals. Sometimes you have to consider everything that may go wrong before thinking about what can go right.

The Bengals turned up the heat …

This is how Vegas wins.

Hello THE PASS RUSH fans and users:

We would like to thank Vegas Martin and Brandon for welcoming us and letting us become a part of this great sports analysis website. We are here to add and provide our insights and picks for the remainder of the NCAA and NFL football seasons.

The first thing that all of you should know when betting is: Vegas ALWAYS wins! Vegas will always set lines that bait the ‘squares’ into betting one way or another. One prime example in week one of this NFL season was the Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans. Now for all of you Colts and Manning fans who saw that all the Colts had to do was win this game with a spread of -1, you should have thought twice. This is how Vegas gets easy winners. I bet most of you reading this either bet, or would have taken the Colts in this game. We, on the other hand, saw that line and had an easy winner on Houston. Also, we asked some of our peers who they would take in that game with that spread. 100% of them had a comment like this, “Oh, Colts all day. No WAY they will lose the season opener; they have Peyton Manning.”

Well, Joey G and The Kid are here to help guide you along to some free winners. Vegas Martin and Brandon have done a fabulous job for the past four years. We are here to help you ‘squares’ turn into ‘sharps’ and ultimately beat Vegas at the weeks end.

STAY TUNED: our confidence picks on NFL and NCAAFB are coming soon. We look forward to advancing your betting skills and making you …

Alabama's running game should roll all over Duke.

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (-23.5) @ DUKE BLUE DEVILS

Last week I took Alabama (-11.5) over Penn State and Alabama won in convincing fashion 24-3, running all over a very respectable Big 10 defense in Penn State with 180 yards on the ground and 229 through the air for over 400 yards of offense. Naturally, I would look to ride them against this week as they started off the season 2-0 ATS.

We all know that Duke’s defense is terrible. They lost to Wake Forest this past week 54-48 and beat Elon by a score of 41-27. Duke gave up an average of 452 yards in those games and was miserable against the run, giving up an average of 8.4 yards per carry. Against a team that loves to run the football and imposes their will over top-tier NCAA defenses, I don’t see how Alabama doesn’t score on essentially every drive that they get the football, especially considering that Duke gave up 54 points to Wake Forest and allowed 27 to Elon. The Crimson Tide should be due for at least 40 points in this game.

Some betting trends that I’ve spotted:

• ALAB are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.
• Over is 6-2-1 in ALAB last 9 games in September.
• ALAB are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games on grass.
• Over is 19-5-3 in DUKE last 27 home games.
• DUKE are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.

Based on Duke’s history and the trends, you know that Duke will give up a ton of points. Last week I took Oklahoma (-9.5) over Florida State and this line even drifted down to Oklahoma (-7) by game time for …

Thinking of betting against a home underdog? Reconsider.

If you’ve listened to Brandon’s advice, you never bet against a home dog. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, but you certainly have to be cautious when betting against a home dog. The 49ers and Chargers losses are two prime examples. However, I won off Miami and the Packers also covered against the Eagles, so it’s not like it’s a full-proof method. Here’s some info that you will not want to forget for the rest of the season.

Home Dogs Who Covered and Won Outright:

1. Houston (+2) over Indianapolis
2. Seattle (+3.5) over San Fransisco
3. Kansas City (+5.5) over San Diego
4. Pittsburgh (+2.5) over Atlanta
5. Washington (+3.5) over Dallas

Home Dogs Who Lost and Did Not Cover:

1. Green Bay over Philadelphia (+4)
2. Miami over Buffalo (+4)

Home Dogs Who Pushed:

1. Rams (+4) vs. Cardinals

My picks came out 10-5 straight up and 6-6-3 ATS this week. If you’re wondering where the 16th game is from that record, I abstained from the Eagles game since I would have been stoned to death if I were to say that the Packers would win and/or cover due to my allegiance to my team. I’ll take a .500 week ATS in week 1 of the NFL and look to improve next week.

It seems like nobody saw the 49ers or Chargers losing this week. Here is a screen shot of Yahoo’s picks straight up, not even against the spread. As far as consensus picks against the spread are concerned, the one place you want to check other than THE PASS RUSH of course is CBS’s Expert Picks who call the games against the spread, unlike Yahoo and ESPN who just make their picks straight up. 2/5 of CBS’s team called Seattle and Kansas City to cover so props to those guys.

Yahoo, on the other hand, did not see the 49ers and Chargers losses coming.

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