Football Picks Against the Spread

Denard Robinson: The next great dual-threat QB?

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (+4) VS. NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH

I’m not sure if I’ll be able to preview all the top 4 college football games this week, but I’ll do my best. NFL Picks are hot off the press. We start off with the game that people voted that they were looking forward to most. I previewed Notre Dame before their game against Purdue, which they won 23-13. Although I picked ND and they covered the 10.5 points, I thought they would score more points than 23 which was disappointing. ND’s defense was phenomenal, they got great play from their running game, and the quarterback play was consistent (19/26, 205 yards, 1 TD).

However, I was more impressed with Michigan’s 30-10 win over Connecticut. I didn’t preview Michigan’s team last week and I didn’t want to pick the Michigan vs. Connecticut game because while Connecticut has been competitive in the Big East (8-5 last season and 10-2 ATS), Michigan has played poorly in past years and I didn’t want to bet on a historically bad team that was just 6-7 last season. However, I had a feeling that may turn around with Rich Rodriguez this season and it look like it has.

Denard Robinson was ridiculous — video footage — (19/22, 186 yards, 1 passing touchdown, 197 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD). Michigan had 473 yards of total offense compared to ND’s 358 yards. Michigan D’s was great against the pass, but could have done a better job against the run, giving up 4.6 YPC compared to ND’s 3.2 YPC. Michigan had a very poor defense last year — the 3rd worst in the Big Ten, giving up 393 YPG. They gave …

THE PASS RUSH: It's like shooting fish in a barrel.

The NFL season is finally here! We started off the college football season in week 1 with a bang. We opened Thursday night going 2-0. Some picks didn’t pan out out on Saturday, but like I mentioned throughout the week, there weren’t any games that I really loved so I played the week rather lightly. I did end up hitting a 4-team teaser though at 2:1 odds, which helped build up the bank roll going into Monday Night’s big game between the Virginia Tech and Boise State. By taking advantage of the line movement, I nailed my teaser of Boise State and the over as my biggest play of the week with plenty of ammo ready for week 1 of the NFL.  Onto this week’s picks against the spread — a.k.a. your NFL Cliff Notes.  Don’t forget to sign up for the pick ’em league (winner gets a free NFL Shop custom t-shirt)!  League sign in info is on the right.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -4.5

Great game to open the season on Thursday. Last year in the playoffs I called that the Saints would win by exactly 3 points and that the Vikings would cover the 3.5 points that they were getting. Guess what happened? Precisely that. That was my moment of glory. What will happen this season on opening day? Given that the Vikings are without Sydney Rice, I’m more confident in the Saints covering this time around. Plus, add in the homecoming from their Super Bowl, which should have their entire team and fans amped up, and the Saints should cruise to a victory with ease. However, I don’t expect the Saints to …

So I hear this Denard Robinson guy is pretty good. Can he beat the Irish in South Bend? Stay tuned for that pick to come. Off to work on the week 1 NFL picks, which shall be posted shortly. In the mean time, enjoy some highlights.

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Current Record:

1. South Carolina Winner for 1 unit

2. Western Michigan Push

3. Washington Loss for 1.1 units

4. Missouri Loss for 1.1 units

5. Teaser (2to1 odds) Maryland, Boise State, and Over Winner for 2 units

Overall Profit 0.8 units

Week 2:

1. South Florida +15 at Florida: Overreaction beware! There are several games this week where there seems to be an overreaction.  For example Oklahoma vs. FSU, Memphis vs. ECU, and USF v UF.  Teams that played poorly or extremely well in week 1 are now either favored by more or less than you would have expected going into week 1. In the game at hand, Florida played very poorly in the opener. However, that was expected by most.  There are going to be some growing pains for this Gator team and their poor play on Saturday didn’t surprise me at all. I do expect to see much better play for all critical positions this week verse USF.  However, USF is a team that I fully expect to have one of their best years.  I think USF has a great chance to win this game outright. They return most of their squad from a year ago. They do have a new coach this year, Skip Holtz, and he gets the most out of his squads and I expect much of the same in South Florida this year.  Look for USF to keep this game close throughout and I wouldn’t be shocked to see an upset here.

The Play: South Florida +15 for 1 unit

Kent St (+17.5) at Boston College: A well balanced offensive attacking Kent State team travels to BC for a game that BC may be overlooking as they face VT a week from …

Here’s a funny Chris Johnson ESPN fantasy football commercial.

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What a game. Boise State tops Virginia Tech 33-30 on the last drive of the game in dramatic fashion like they always do. What a way to end week one with a huge win. Going large on the big game of the week with a sure-fire teaser of Boise State +10 with the over 43.5. I put the whole booty on the line with this pick as it was my first 3.5/5 pick that I handed out this week. Fact. I was about to make it a 4/5, but last year’s TCU game kept me from not getting too cocky on the over.

Once Boise was up 17-0 at the end of the first, everyone was loving that call. Tech made it real interesting though in the second half. Now you know why I’m obsessed with teasers. You also know why I liked Virginia Tech in my initial write up, but gave Tech to win outright a 1.5/5 while giving the teaser a 3.5/5. That’s how the point system works folks. Brandon even added Maryland into his teaser for a 2:1 win.

We’ll be working on week 2 shortly.

Best of luck to everyone!

Now to a very important message from Rocky

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Four great games are on tap week 2 and I like Alabama.

Here are the big games that are on tap for week 2 of college football:

• No. 20 Florida State @ No. 7 Oklahoma (-9)
• Michigan @ Notre Dame (-4)
• No. 13 Miami @ No. 2 Ohio State (-9.5)
• No. 19 Penn State @ No. 1 Alabama (-11.5)

We’ll be sure to preview those games. Here are my early thoughts on those games.

I really like Alabama next week. I would absolutely love this spread at -9.5. I think they should win by 14-21. At 11.5, PSU has a shot at covering, but I doubt it.

If Michigan was at home, I would absolutely love that pick, but ND’s home-field advantage is undeniable. I thought Michigan would get 3 in this one, so the 4 is generous. It looks like Rich Rodriguez found his next Pat White in Denard Robinson. Robinson was lights out in the Connecticut game (19/22, 186 passing yards, 196 rushing yards, 1 passing TD, 1 rushing TD) and if he can repeat that type of performance, Michigan could pull off the upset in South Bend.

I think Ohio State wins, but I count on Miami on keeping the game within reach.

Despite Oklahoma not crushing Utah State this past week, I think Oklahoma has no problem covering the 9 points in this game. Florida State gives up a lot of points. Last year Florida State gave up 37 to Florida, 38 to Miami, 49 to Georgia Tech, 27 to North Carolina, 40 to Clemson, and 26 to Maryland. At home, Oklahoma is due for at least 35 and I don’t think the Seminoles can put up 24 against a Sooners defense that will be …