Football Picks Against the Spread

LOTS OF GREEN FOR 1:00!

I’m going to try to make this one short and sweet since I am running short on time.

LAST MINUTE UPDATES: DT Tommy Harris is out for the Bears, that’s a big blow to their defense.  Richard Seymour is questionable with an illness.  If he’s out, I’m more confident in that Jets pick.  Seymour was the standout on the Raiders D last week.  Trent Edwards is out for the Bills, so I’m like the Panthers -7 pick a bit more.  The Panthers get to pick on Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bengals terrible backup from last year.  There is rain in the forecast for the SD/KC and NO/MIA games, that gives KC +5 and MIA +6.5 a slight advantage, but I still like SD and NO to cover.  I forgot to mention that the NE/TB game is in London.  With the high spread, you might want to pass on this game since the long flight may make the Pats play flat.  GB -9 over CLE is still probably the best game to take for your money.

GREEN BAY PACKERS -9 @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

The spread on this game wasn’t released when I wrote up my picks, but read Brandon’s reasons for taking the Packers in the comments section.  This game is tied for my favorite game of the week along with Colts -13.5.

Prediction: Packers 31 – Browns 3

Free Pick: Packers -9 (Confidence: 5/5) (W)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -5 @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

This was the first spread I saw on my screen and I was pretty stunned.  The Chargers are usually a 9-10 point favorite when facing the Chiefs.  I don’t know why the Chargers are getting such a favorable spread.  Last week’s loss against …

How does one score 5 touchdowns in 1 quarter of football?  It has never happened in the NFL before!  Brady makes it look like the Titans are playing with 4 players on defense.

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I feel I let a lot of you down with my NFL picks this week, so I just wanted to say a word about them. I was on fire week 5 in the NFL, everything I took was gold. I figured that if I nailed 3/3 high spreads in week 5, I could repeat it again this week.

Overall my NFL picks were 7-9 and 3 losses were by 1 point (Steelers, Vikings, and Bengals/Texans Over). 1 game away from .500 isn’t that bad. It was just the top 5 that consisted of the wrong games. Hindsight is always 20/20, but looking back, I wouldn’t have made many changes to my picks. Betting against the Raiders, Browns, and Rams has worked all season long, so why reinvent the wheel, right?  Well, every dog has its day — welcome to gambling.

The Eagles offensive line forgot to show up and the injury to Pro Bowl LT Jason Peters in the 1st quarter is what did the Eagles in that game.  Their backup LT is miserable!  The left tackle is the most important position in football besides the QB, in my opinion.  McNabb never got more than 3 seconds to release the football.  That was the difference in that game.  Then in the Jets game, Mark Sanchez threw 5 INTs.  Enought said there.

I would have moved the Packers up a bit due to the Calvin Johnson being inactive. That info on Johnson didn’t come out until right before the game though.  I bet this game right before kickoff, but didn’t get the update up on the site in time. The Patriots and Panthers also warranted higher picks, but at least I added them as picks to consider in the top 5.…

Overall Profit 2.7 units (updated 10/26 at 10:06 pm)

Weekly Loss -1.9 units (updated 10/26 at 10:06 pm)

Just like last week, I have already bet several games early and am releasing them to you so that you can shop around and get the best available line.

1) Air Force at Utah (-11) for 1 unit. Utah should dominate this game from start to finish. Way better balanced attack. AF’s offense can be stopped.

Utah 23 Air Force 16 L for 1.1 units

2) Wake Forest at Navy (-2.5) for 1 unit. Navy continues to improve and will take advantage of weak road team in WF.

Navy 13 Wake Forest 10 W for 1 unit

3) Indiana at Northwestern (-5.5) for 2 units. Northwestern is simply a better squad top to bottom. Indiana is one dimensional and Northwestern should be able to shut them down.

Northwestern 29 Indiana 28 L of 2.2 units

4) Tulsa (-7) at UTEP for 1 unit. I have not bet this game yet myself because I know there are still some 7s out there and the Hilton had the line at -7.5 already.

UTEP 28 TULSA 24 L of 1.1 units

5) Clemson (+6) at Miami for 1 unit.  Clemson can match the speed of Miami and are playing much better than Miami right now. I will take the points.

Clemson 40 Miami 37 W for 1 unit

6) Kent State at Ohio (-10) for 2 unit. Ohio continues to roll. Kent State playing back to back road games in conference, tough spot for them.

Kent State 20 Ohio 11 L for 2.2 units

7) Arizona State (+6) at Stanford for 1 unit. Really like how ASU is playing right now. This would be a …

We finished the week still up 4.6 units overall. Giving us 2 straight profitable weeks. Not bad for a free service.

My top picks were flat awful, no excuses, neither had a chance at all. That is gambling, sometimes even when all the numbers add up you still end up on the wrong side of things.

Week 8 is already upon us with games beginning on Wednesday, which I am already closely analyzing. There are also several other games I am looking at and will again be releasing on this site as early as possible so that you have the opportunity to get the best line available.

Thanks again for all the comments.…

Check out this sick punt return.

Here are links to posts you probably care about:

Vegas Martin’s Week 6 NFL Picks

Brandon Phillip’s Week 7 College Football Picks — The dude’s still hot, 7-4 this week.

To the video:

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Brandon had a solid week with his picks. He ended up in positive territory with a 7-4 record. My college football picks were 3-4-1. My top 5 got banged up going 1-4 and my bonus picks were 2-0-1.

USC was in the money most of the game, but came out with a 7-point win so they didn’t cover the 10. Wake Forest was blown up by Clemson, Kansas was shockingly upset by Colorado, and Ohio State was upset by Purdue. We finally see the upsets occurring. That’s why you really have to be careful betting against the home underdogs, especially in college football. I was also somewhat surprised by the Virginia Tech loss to Georgia Tech, but GT is a solid football team and it shows you again just how valuable home field is in college football.

I really liked the Boston College pick at a mere -2 at home, but read too much into things since NCS has been able to put up offense and has been solid against the run. They are just unable to win games. I knew BC was the much better football team, but talked myself out of putting it in the top 5 plays due to those reasons.

The South Carolina +18 was another solid call, but I found it hard to bet against a hot team like Alabama, especially when they’re 4-1 ATS and have covered high spreads all season long, but with a quality team like South Carolina, I knew the 18 points was just way too high.

The only game I played in college football was Kansas since I figured they would light up the scoreboard on a bad defense, but Colorado finally put up a solid performance out of nowhere. …