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NFL Week 6 Predictions, Picks Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on October 15th, 2009 | 8 Comments

What’s up my peeps.  Vegas Martin is back and ready to give his NFL Week 6 picks against the spread.  It’s no secret that THE PASS RUSH has absolutely given the books the spanking this past week in both the NFL and College Football.  I don’t want to get too cocky here since there is no such thing as a lock and I will also advise you to do your own due diligence on each game you pick, but let’s take a look at the spreads and see if we can spot any easy money this week.  Again, I ranked my top 5 spreads of the week at the bottom of this article.  Enjoy!  Thanks for all the comments lately — keep it up and thanks for contributing to THE PASS RUSH.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS -6

I’ve been saying for the last few weeks that the Redskins are a horrible team to bet on.  They have a very poor offense, but their defense gives them the chance to win every week.  I also love picking against “NFL retards,” one of which includes the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Chiefs were able to hang with the Cowboys, but they’re a completely different team when they’re on the road compared to being at home.  For the sake of picking this game, I’ll say the Redskins cover and win by a TD, but would I be surprised with a mere 3-point win by the Redskins?  No.  Avoid this game.

Prediction: Redskins 20 – Chiefs 13

Free Pick: Redskins -6 (Confidence: 2/5) (L)

HOUSTON TEXANS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS -4.5

The Bengals are 4-1, can you believe it?  I can’t!  With a poor Texans defense and potent offense, I think the over 46 may be the play to make in this game.  I don’t like betting against the Texans since they typically lose, but generally cover.  I feel that a 27-20, maybe even a 31-28 game is in the cards.  I’m going against the grain and saying take the points.  Why am I making such a bold call against the Cardiac Cats, who are 4-1 and at home?  The Bengals rank 23rd against the pass and the Texans get pissed off when they lose close games like they did last week, and Andre Johnson usually delivers (e.g.: after the Jets loss, he goes nuts against the Titans).  In my opinion, the Texans win outright by 3, so I’ll take the points.  I’m not buying the Bengals as a legitimate playoff team.  To me, they’re just lucky!  I am not super confident in the Texans.  I’m just trying to be cute and I don’t want to pick the favorites for every game.  4.5 is pretty generous to me.  If the Bengals win, it will likely be by 3-4 points, in my opinion.

Prediction: Texans 27 – Bengals 24

Free Pick: Texans +4.5 (Confidence: 2/5) (W), Over 46 (Confidence: 3/5) (L)

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS -14

I LOVE betting against the Brown this season, I’m 3-1 doing that so far this season.  Sometimes the high spreads are the easy winners.  I picked 3 high spreads last week. In fact, they were my top 3 plays of the week and they were the only easy covers.  Look at the Giants, Vikings, and Eagles last week.  Each team covered by the end of the first half.  The Browns scored 6 points against the Bills and Derek Anderson was 2/17 passing.  They guy had -2 fantasy points — how bad of a QB do you have to be to have -2 points?  The Browns simply suck.  They are awful. They are pathetic.   They are the worst or second-to-worst team in the NFL.  The Steelers will score at ease and their defense will likely shut the Browns out.  Polamalu will also likely return this week.  I am calling for a blowout and possibly even a shut out.

Injury Updates: Polamalu and Willie Parker will likely be back.  Steelers DE Aaron Smith will be out.  Mendenhall had flu-like symptoms yesterday and may miss Sunday, but the Steelers at least have FWP back.  You have to factor in the injuries in assessing the strength of this bet.  Smith and Mendenhall are both big blows, but Willie Parker and Polamalu back makes that up.

Prediction: Steelers 31 – Browns 0

Free Pick: Steelers -14 (Confidence: 4/5) (L)

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS -3

I got excited when I saw this game.  Not to bet on, but just to watch some hard-hitting football.  This is not the best game to bet on, but I’m going with the Vikings at home.  It will be tight, it will likely be low scoring.  The Ravens offense has been on and off.  Sometimes they look outstanding, other times they struggle.  If they struggle with the run, their offense has a tough time getting going.  Minnesota’s 10th ranked run D (96 rushing yards allowed per game) gives them the edge in this matchup.  With the Ravens 4th ranked run D, Brett Favre will have to rely less on Adrian Peterson to bail him out and will have to expose the Ravens secondary that ranks 26th.  Favre has been on fire and has the weapons to work with.  With Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin, and Sidney Rice, Favre airs it out and gives the Vikings the win.

Prediction: Vikings 23 – Ravens 19

Free Pick: Vikings -3 (Confidence: 2/5) (L)

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -9.5

After last week’s debacle, the Jaguars will be playing pissed off.   MJD is pissed off and wants the ball.  When MJD wants the ball, he will get the ball, and he will get the ball against the 2nd-to-worst defense in the game.  Rams defense: 29 PPG allowed, 363 yards allowed per-game.  The Jags were without Sims-Walker last week due to team rule violation, but he’ll be back this week and will give the offense a boost.  I’ll write off last week’s loss as an “outlier.”  The Jags beat up the Titans the previous week, and I think that’s what they’ll do against the Rams.  9.5 points is steep on a defense that is ranked 24th and an offense that is only ranked 23rd, but it’s the Rams dude!  I say the Jaguars cover, but they’re still not strong enough to make me feel 100% comfortable.

Prediction: Jaguars 27 – Rams 10

Free Pick: Jaguars -9.5 (Confidence: 3.5/5) (L)

NEW YORK GIANTS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3

This is the game of the week to watch for sure.  Too bad this couldn’t be the Sunday or Monday night game.  Two undefeated teams who are in the top 3 of the power rankings squaring off for NFL supremacy.  The Saints are at home off the bye week, which gives them a slight edge, but the Giants boast the NFL’s best defense and Eli Manning is playing like his brother.  The over/under is 47 and this one has all the makings of a shootout with several lead changes.  Eli has no shortage of receivers to work with as Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, and Hakeem Nicks are all legit.  This game is really tough to call.  I think you’ll see a lot of lead changes and a lot of points.  I’ll lean towards the Giants +3 since I think there’s a 60% chance they win this one outright.  The over is not a lock with the Giants #1 D, but I’m anticipating a lot of points.  This one could also play out like the Jets/Saints game which was a mere 24-10 game.

Prediction: Giants 31 – Saints 27

Free Pick: Giants +3 (Confidence: 2/5) (L), Over 47 (Confidence: 2/5) (W)

CAROLINA PANTHERS -3 @ TAMPA BAY BUCANEERS

I don’t have much to say about this game.  The Panthers are not that great, but were fortunately able to get their first win last week over the Redskins.  The Bucs are struggling big time and just don’t look like they could beat Panthers.

Prediction: Panthers 24 – Buccaneers 13

Free Pick: Panthers -3 (Confidence: 3/5) (W)

DETROIT LIONS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS -13.5

Remember when the Lions had to go on the road against the Bears?  Bears won 48-24.  Packers are at home off the bye week.  Packers should air this one out all over the Lions 27th ranked passing defense.  The Lions are a terrible team on the road every single year.  Keep picking on the “NFL retards.”  Packers D needs to improve though, but they had no problems containing the Rams — they were able to shut them out.  Culpepper wasn’t bad last game against the Steelers.  The Lions are a better team with him as the QB.  He had a somewhat impressive 83.4 QB rating last week.

Prediction: Packers 35 – Lions 10

Free Pick: Packers -13.5 (Confidence: 3.5/5) (W)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -14 @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

Easy spot to take the Eagles.  The Giants just dismantled the Raiders and I don’t see any reason why the Eagles shouldn’t be able to do the same thing.  The Eagles defense is too good to let the Raiders score.  The most points I can see the Raiders scoring is 10.  The Eagles offense is just clicking and seems to put up points against weaker teams at ease.  I’m an Eagles fan, so I’m 100% bias, but you’ll be hard pressed to find someone who will argue that the Raiders will cover.

Prediction: Eagles 31 – Raiders 0

Free Pick: Eagles -14 (Confidence: 4/5) (L)

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -3

This is a tough game to call.  The Seahawks have been tremendous at home and with Hasselbeck back, their offense just plays tremendous.  I don’t want to bet against a team with Fitzgerald, but the Cardinals aren’t as strong as they were last year.  I have to stick with the Seahawks at home.  The home field just seems to give their team a tremendous boost.

Prediction: Seahawks 27 – Cardinals 24

Free Pick: Seahawks -3 (Confidence: 2/5) (L)

BUFFALO BILLS @ NEW YORK JETS -9.5

The Bills lost to the Browns at home after getting killed by the Dolphins.  After impressing some people by hanging with the Patriots in week 1, they’ve clearly lost their steam.  They’re not getting good play out of their QB and they’ve had to battle some injuries as well.  If they were only able to score 3 points against the Browns, all signs point out being shut out by the Jets tough defense.  The Jets D didn’t play up to their potential last week.  They couldn’t handle the wild cat, so maybe the Bills should try that with Fred Jackson playing the role of Ronnie Brown and Marshawn Lynch playing the role of Ricky Williams.  The Jets have lost 2 straight games on the road, but I think the trip back home over a weak team gives them the boost they need to regain their confidence.  Rex Ryan will have that defense focused.  There’s no doubt that the offense was clicking last week, it was just the D that let them down.  Braylon Edwards is going to be a stud on the Jets and don’t forget about Jericho Cotchery.  I like the Jets to cover.

Prediction: Jets 24 – Bills 10

Free Pick: Jets -9.5 (Confidence: 3.5/5) (L)

TENNESSEE TITANS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -9

Have you seen how bad the Titans pass defense is?  They’re ranked 31st in the league and give up 287 yards per game against the pass alone.  They’ve gotten killed by the Jets, Jaguars, Jets, and Colts.  All signs to Tom Brady having that break out game of the year.  275 yards and 3 TD could be the type of stats you see out of Brady this week.  I like the Patriots at home off the Broncos loss.  This is the perfect matchup to get Brady back in the game.

Prediction: Patriots 27 – Titans 17

Free Pick: Patriots -9 (Confidence: 3.5/5) (W)

CHICAGO BEARS @ ATLANTA FALCONS -3

I have to go with the Falcons at home.  They have the 9th ranked offense and 4th ranked defense in terms of points, yet they’re ranked 20th in yards allowed, 22nd against the pass, and 24th against the run.  It’s extremely rare for a defense to give up those kind of yards and allow a mere 15.8 PPG.  The Bears offense ranks 7th in terms of points, but the Lions game where they scored 48 points has those stats skewed.  Matt Ryan vs. Jay Cutler is a great young QB matchup.  This one should be close, so it’s not one of the better games to bet on.

Prediction: Falcons 24 – Bears 20

Free Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3 (Confidence: 3/5) (W)

DENVER BRONCOS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -3.5

I’m pretty happy with the Monday Night game.  The Broncos are undefeated and playing lights out right now, so I’m tempted to take the points here.  The Chargers defense has been a liability, but Philip Rivers is playing as good as any QB in the league right now.  The Chargers score and average and give up an average of 25 points.  Their 27th ranked run D is a big liability for them though.  The Broncos are averaging 19.8 PPG and allowing a league best 8.6 PPG.  They’re also 2nd in total yards allowed, so it’s not by some fluke.  They’re 5th against the pass and 6th against the run.  Their defense is for real.  They held the Cowboys to 10 and the Patriots to 17, what else do you want?  My gut is telling me to take the 3.5 points, but I don’t feel comfortable betting against the Chargers at home on a Monday Night.  It seems like whenever I bet on the Broncos, they lose, and if I bet against them, they win.  I’m staying on the sidelines here.

Prediction: Chargers 23 – Broncos 20

Free Pick: Broncos +3.5 (Confidence: 2/5) (W)

TOP 5 SPREADS RANKED BY LEVEL OF AWESOMENESS

My top 2 picks are what I could consider “free money” like last week with the Vikings, Giants, and Eagles. However, I don’t want to get too cocky here with the high spreads.  I would continue betting against weak teams like the Browns, Raiders, Rams, Lions, and Chiefs, so I’m sticking with that.  I also like the fact that I have 4 home teams over 4 very weak opponents.

1.) Eagles -14 over RAIDERS (L)

2.) STEELERS -14 over Browns (L)

3.) JETS -9.5 over Bills (L)

4.) JAGUARS -9.5 over Rams (L)

5.) PACKERS -13.5 over Lions (W)

I would also give some consideration to PATRIOTS -9 over Titans (W) and Panthers -3 over BUCCANEERS (W).

Good luck this week!

DISCLAIMER: There is no such thing as a lock.  Do your own due diligence on each game.



8 Responses to NFL Week 6 Predictions, Picks Against the Spread:

  1. phil

    Date: Oct 15, 2009 at 6:13 pm

    hey Vegas – I’m gonna follow you on your top 5 this weekend! good luck to us! great site

    phil

  2. paul

    Date: Oct 15, 2009 at 10:28 pm

    lol …. i might get bold this week and take a three game parlay with the jets, pats, and eagles……. or maybe the jets pats, and steelers….

  3. V@N th3 R@VENS fan!!!

    Date: Oct 16, 2009 at 5:36 pm

    DUDE,I LOVE YOUR TOP 5,BUT IT IS ALWAYS SCAREY TO GIVE UP ALL THOSE POINTS,BECAUSE OF THE WEAK TD’S TEAMS GIVE UP AT GARBAGE TIME.WOULD’NT YOU AGGREE.

  4. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 16, 2009 at 5:55 pm

    Yes, generally I hate high spreads, but last week I went 3/3 with Eagles -15, Giants -14, and Rams -10. The Browns, Raiders, and Rams rarely score, they all average about 6 PPG and they all allow about 28 PPG. They’re also playing excellent offenses with excellent defenses. I think this is easy money here.

    You make a good point with garbage time TDs, but even at 14, I don’t think that could put them in the money. Let’s say the Eagles are up 28-3 in the 4th, they’ll still cover if the Raiders score to make the game 28-10.

    I stand by my top 5.

  5. paul

    Date: Oct 19, 2009 at 1:22 am

    wow……… what a week…….. the steelers…… the eagles…. omg… those i thought were my solid picks….. negative… i was kind of worried about my play on the pats…. i was wrong…. .this week made me feel like the nfl is fixed… haha… anyways better luck next week… i already like some of the matchups… colts and rams……. and packers and browns…….

    I have to say that the steelers have let me down twice in a row giving up late touchdowns and settling for field goals….. it makes me sick to see a good drive go to waste with a field goal…. anyways….

    Vegas…. what is yoru thought on the eagles game… i didnt get to see it…. i just got to look at my gamecast on my iphone and shake my head at work…..

    Who else thought it was funny and wrong to watch the titans game till the third quarter when they changed it to the jets game….. that is embarrassing

    I hope i have a better week next week…. i heave learned that the steelers give up late when they are up by about 10…. ahhhh im stilll upset….. better luck next week

  6. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 19, 2009 at 7:02 am

    I’m an Eagles fan, so I watched that ptiful performance against the Raiders. The loss came down to 1 thing: the offensive line. McNabb never got any time in the pocket, he was getting pressured on every single down. The line couldn’t even give him 3 seconds. I’m very surprised by this since I was at the Bucs game in person and the O-line had an “A” performance. In that game they allowed just 1 sack and McNabb had sometimes 6-7 seconds to release the ball. In this game, McNabb was sacked 6 times and never got any time. The offensive line got an “F” this game. It made me think that Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck dressed up in Raiders uniforms this week. It was very out of character. The injury to Pro Bowl LT Jason Peters in the 1st quarter was a huge blow. The Eagles were already missing the Andrews brothers for the entire season at RG and RT. That was the issue.

    If you saw my pre-game pep talk, I might have nailed it with this:

    “The one thing I’m worried about with the Eagles is they tend to lose their focus when playing out on the west coast. I don’t know if it’s Donovan partying west-coast style or just the time difference, but in past games against the Seahawks or the 49ers, they sometimes disappoint. After the Raiders debacle against the Giants, I see no reason why they shouldn’t crush the Raiders, but I wanted to put up a little “buyer beware” notice before you rely too heavily on this game.”

    I lost on the Steelers/Eagles, but put in a last minute bet on the Packers when I heard Calvin Johnson was inactive for the Lions, so that helped smooth out the bumpy ride this week. Maybe you caught up with the Falcons in the Sunday Night game.

    Sorry my Eagles disappointed the Steelers couldn’t cover by 1 point. Bad beats man. Get ’em next time.

  7. Ry

    Date: Oct 19, 2009 at 7:22 am

    i got killed this week, mucho sucko.

    … and the jets got me 2 weeks in a row!

    next week… there is always next week… I’m officially even for the season after this weekend (2-6) OUCH.

  8. paul

    Date: Oct 19, 2009 at 1:31 pm

    true… you did nail it… but i though for sure the eagles would light up the scoreboard…. i knew the raiders were a different team at home… they almost beat the chargers…. anyways the steelers game was gay… four fumbles in a row?…. i have never seen that. Also, the atlanta game had forte fumbling twice in a row on the goal line. This week was crazy for all of football. I teased the eagles game to -8 and the steelers game to -8 but lost the eagles game. Gay. Ill have to figure out soemthing next week. good luck

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