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SMART BET College Football Picks for Saturday, October 5, 2013

Posted by in College Football Picks on October 5th, 2013 | 3 Comments

Sorry this post comes a little in the day, but you still have plenty of time to make all of the bets I am posting.

Minnesota at Michigan (-19.5): Maybe it is just me, but I really think this Michigan team has a ton of talent, but clearly they have not put it together. They have to be one of the only teams in history to have started 4-0, and yet dropped in the standings each of the last two weeks after narrow wins. Part of having a good football program is learning to win even when you do not play very well. Michigan has done exactly that after narrow wins against Akron and UConn. Michigan comes off a bye week with plenty of time to prepare and refocus for Minnesota. If this team can put things together, they can easily dominate and blowout a team like Minnesota. Therefore, lay the 19.5 and take Michigan for 1 unit.

LSU at Mississippi State (+9.5). Tough and meaningless spot for LSU. MissSt is another team that has failed to put it all together. They are well coached, have above average talent, and should be motivated to beat LSU at home. LSU comes off a season ending loss at Georgia, which was a heartbreaker as well. LSU also is playing their second straight road game and come in as an almost 10 point favorite. MissSt comes off a blowout win over Troy and hopefully have that offense firing on all cylinders for today’s big home SEC game. I look for MissSt to play well and hopefully pull the upset. Take the points with Mississippi State for 1 unit.

Ohio State at NORTHWESTERN (+7). The real question is how good is Ohio State? While …

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SMART BET Week 4 College Picks

Posted by in College Football on September 20th, 2013 | Comment »

A tough loss last week with Alabama. Games can so easily go from a runaway easy win to a loss in a heartbeat. Alabama was going in for the score to go up 21 with just over three minutes left, they fumble on the two yard line, and A&M drives 90+ yards for the TD and cover. Not the worse beat of all time, but tough to be that close and walk away a loser with your top bet.

The overall college football card is filled with some  huge favorites including Louisville -42, Alabama -39, UCLA -43, Miami-FL -59, Florida State -40, Ohio State -50, Virginia -45, and Washington -49. I do not see any value in those games. You potentially could have let down spots with Alabama, UCLA, and Ohio State off solid wins, but their opponents are so weak it would still be a stretch to lay money against any of those teams.

University of Louisiana-Lafayette (-6) vs. Akron. Incredibly tough spot for Akron off the loss to Michigan, in which, they should have won easily. Despite having many opportunities to win they had the ball within the 10 yard line and failed to score as time expired on their final play. Akron played the game of their life last Saturday and will be called to match that effort again as they take on a very solid UL-Laf squad. UL-Laf put forth strong efforts in their first two affairs suffering road losses to Arkansas and Kansas State. Last week they finally played a team more their caliber and won 70-7. One key spot play is to play  against a team coming off a heart-breaking loss, even better when you have a team like Akron that will struggle to …

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SMART BET COLLEGE FOOTBALL Week 3

Posted by in College Football Picks on September 10th, 2013 | 1 Comment

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Nice to be back for another year of College Football. Over the years my betting strategy has really changed. I use to be a straight numbers guy, but over the past two years I have primarily become a situational player, in that I look for certain spots where either the casino has laid a bad number or more often the public has over bet a certain team.

Heading into Week 3 there is only one major college game on tap, Alabama (-7.5) at Texas A&M, but I do think there are a couple other plays that are worth taking a shot at.

ALABAMA (-7.5) vs. Texas A&M. I know recently some of the Alabama players have come out and said this is not a revenge game from last year when A&M upset them at home, but I did read a report that stated Alabama has had that game on a continual loop in the weight room since the season began. So I don’t buy the argument that there isn’t any revenge angle here. Additionally, I doubt Alabama liked hearing about how great Johnny Football was all year. Further, I am sure they didn’t appreciate his off the field antics either. Despite all the off field issues involved, A&M’s Defense is flat out terrible, make that TERRIBLE! Stats: PYA Avg. 176.5 yds, RYA Avg. 273, PPG Avg. 29.5. Who did they play? Rice and Sam Houston State. So let me say it again, TERRIBLE. Johnny Football better come to play just so A&M can keep it respectable, but don’t expect it and don’t expect Saben to let his foot off the gas when they are up 21 or more. Lay the points with Alabama for 2 units.

SOUTHERN UTAH (+21.0) vs.

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SMART BET BOWL SPECIAL 2012/2013

Posted by in College Football Picks on December 26th, 2012 | 1 Comment

2012-2013-college-bowl-specialGeneral rules for bowl game predictions. Rule 1: Almost always bet the underdogs. You can go back something like 26 years and if you would have blindly bet all bowl game underdogs you would have had a profitable bowl season every year. Currently, favorites are 3-2 against the spread so far this bowl season. Rule 2: Strongly consider betting the better rushing team. This comes down to a simple timing thing. Its easy to run the ball than throw it. Most teams have several weeks off between games and most of the time it takes passing offensives a little longer to get rolling in bowl games simply because they need to get their timing back. Rule 3: Strongly consider betting the better defensive team. You will have to do you homework in to follow this rule because many of the teams playing have never played each other, come from different conferences, and the stats can be misleading.

Western Kentucky (-6.5) vs. Central Michigan: In general, I tend to fade the MAC in bowl games as they have performed terrible over the past few years. After looking at CMU, there isn’t much to be impressed by here despite winning their last three games of the year to become bowl eligble. Their defense has given up almost 200 yards rushing per game, which is terrible considering they play in the MAC. WKU’S rushing attack is strong averaging 186 yards per game. With the new coach for the bowl game, I expect him to stick with the bread and butter and keep the ball on the ground with a huge dosage of running plays. WKU’s coach for the bowl game has had previous experience stepping in for coaches that bolted prior to the …

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SMART BET College Football: Friday, November 23, 2012

Posted by in NFL General on November 23rd, 2012 | 1 Comment

Betting Tip: For many teams, this is the final week of year so it is important to find teams that still have something to play for and key in on those games. Finding a team without a lot to play for verse a team that has already packed it in or one of the major programs that has already been eliminated from BCS eligibility could lead to great “spot” plays.

1. LSU (-13) vs Arkansas: I like this spot play for LSU. A lot would have to happen to allow LSU back into the picture, but there is an outside chance should things fall apart for the teams ahead of them that could end up in a BCS game (not likely, but possible). Arkansas has nothing to play for at this point. Ark is 2-9 ATS on the season. Against average defenses their offense has completely struggled. As we all know, LSU still has one of the top defenses in the country. LSU should be able to score at will and I don’t see there defense giving up more than 10 points. Lay the 13 with LSU for 2 units.

2. Arizona St vs Arizona OVER 68.5. Arizona State has played better on the road this year and their defense has been respectable all year. However, AzSt’s D struggled against the spread offense of Oregon and Coach Rich Rod should take special note of that and exploit those weaknesses. Rich isn’t a great coach, but he does know how to get teams to score. Therefore, I see Arizona putting up a score in the mid 30s. Arizona has really struggled to stop any team with a legitimate offense and that should again haunt them here. Arizona State will come to …

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Smart Bet College Football

Posted by in College Football Picks on November 17th, 2012 | 2 Comments

No write ups this week just the plays:

Iowa at MICHIGAN (-17) play on UM for 1 unit.

OHIO STATE (+2.5) at Wisconsin for 1 unit.

Stanford at Orgeon (-19) for 1 unit.

Arizona (+3) at Utah for 1 unit.

 

More to come later.…

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SMART BET College Football Week 11

Posted by in College Football Picks on November 10th, 2012 | Comment »

Coming off our strongest week of the year going 4-1 ats. I see several “spot” plays this week that should be good spots to exploit some bad lines.

1. TEXAS A&M (+13.5) vs. Alabama: This is purely a spot play. Alabama comes off the huge emotional win last week over LSU. A&M is playing great football right now and has all year. Their only two losses came against Florida, during Week 2, and to LSU. I don’t think A&M can pull the upset, but they couldn’t be playing much better. A&M catches Alabama in a perfect spot, which will hopefully lead to an exciting close game. Take the points with A&M for 1 unit.

2. MISSISSIPPI STATE (+15) vs LSU: Again, spot play. Miss St comes off two embarrasing losses after starting the season 7-0. Clearly Miss St benefited from an early weak schedule. Miss St. is a good football team, but they cannot match talent with LSU. However, LSU comes off one of the toughest losses you will see all year. The loss to Bama also eliminates any national title hopes they still had. LSU is used to playing for national titles and you have to wonder where this team is mentally since they don’t have a whole lot to play for now. I look for Miss St to play their best game of the year. I think this should be a very low scoring affair so take the points with Miss St. for 1 unit.

3. Colorado at ARIZONA (-29): I was all over UCLA last week in a spot play against Arizona and I was dead on as UCLA won 66-10. However, I expected Az to play terrible and they did just that; clearly they had not …

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