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Sports Betting Rule #1: Don’t bet on a game just because it’s on TV

Posted by in College Football Picks on October 26th, 2007 | 270 Comments

It’s usually a dumb idea to bet on a game just because it happens to be televised.  Usually ESPN’s Thursday Night College Football game is a game I always want to bet on to start off the betting weekend.  It’s so tempting to bet on, but unless you have a great feeling about the game, it’s in your best interest to not bet on the game and live to fight another day.

Last night’s game between No. 2 Boston College and No. 8 Virginia Tech is a prime example.  The line was set at Virginia Tech -3.  I was thinking it would be a low scoring game, that Virginia Tech’s defense would give Boston College trouble, and that taking VT at -3 would be a safe play because they were the home team and playing on Thursday night — it’s usually a great winning combination in college football.  If I would have taken Virginia Tech, I would have ended up in a very poor mood.  Instead, I used a little discipline and intuition and decided to pass on the game.  Great call.

If you took Boston College, you were sweating the game out until the final minutes of the game.  If you took Virginia Tech, you thought you were sitting pretty good for the first 58 minutes of the game.  Tech had a 10-point lead through the majority of the game, if BC happens to score, the worst that could happen is a push right?  Wrong!  BC recovers an improbable onside kick, marches down the field, and scores the game-winning touchdown with 11 seconds left to play.

This is a prime example of the rule that if you think the game will be close and could go either way, don’t bet on the game just because it’s televised.  To stay ahead in sports betting you have to make smart plays and not plays just because you want to watch the game and want a team to root for.  That is how I’ve learned to stay away from college football and focus on the NFL because there are some great NFL games to pick in week 8.



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