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BCS Bowl Game Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

Posted by in College Football Picks on December 28th, 2007 | 388 Comments

What a suiting article for the 100th article here on THE PASS RUSH.  Here are my picks and predictions for the BCS Bowl games.  Here are my picks for the non-BCS Bow games.

ROSE BOWL: Illinois Fighting Illini vs. USC Trojans -13.5

I don’t know why the Illini are getting a lack of respect in this game.  I thought the spread should be USC -9.  I think Illinois is very capable of covering this one.  They were the team to top Ohio State and have impressive wins against Penn State and Wisconsin.  Their first game of the season was against should-be BSC Bowl contender Missouri, and they only lost that one by 4.  These teams match up pretty evenly.  Illinois has an average PF of 28.8, USC’s is 31.2.  Illinois has an average PA of 19.5, USC’s is 15.9.  Illinois’ 7-4 record against the spread is better than USC’s 6-6 record against the spread.  9/13 of the experts at covers.com are taking USC to cover, but I think the Trojans will win, but Illinois will cover.  Also keep in mind that USC has a huge advantage being in Pasadena.

Prediction – USC defeats Illinois – 34-24

USC Moneyline – Confidence 4/5
Illinois +13.5 Spread – Confidence 2/5

SUGAR BOWL: Hawaii Warriors vs. Georgia Bulldogs -7.5

When I first saw the Bowl games announced I was getting excited about this one because I expect the Bulldogs to stomp on the Warriors.  I thought the spread should be at least 10 points.  We all know about Hawaii’s offense, but they’ve been playing mickey-mouse defenses; they haven’t seen a defense like Georgia’s.  I don’t think Hawaii will know what hit them when they have to square off on January 1st.  Hawaii’s defense will also give up a ton of points, their average PA is 24.2. Oh, and Hawaii is 4-6 against the spread, Georgia is 7-4 against the spread.  Georgia has won their last 5 games by double digits and that was against superb teams like Florida, Kentucky, Auburn, and Georgia Tech!  When Hawaii faces teams other than the jokes they face like New Mexico State and Utah State; like Washington, Nevada, and Fresno State; they win by 7 points or less — hardly impressive at all.  I like Georgia to win big.

Prediction – Georgia defeats Hawaii – 38-24

Georgia Moneyline – Confidence 5/5
Georgia -7.5 Spread – Confidence 4/5

FIESTA BOWL: West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Oklahoma Sooners -7.5

This one could be a shootout that comes down to who gets the ball last. That makes taking the 7.5 points enticing, but I’ve lost a lot of confidence in West Virginia after that Pittsburgh loss and I still think it’s safer to bet on Oklahoma -7.5 rather than West Virginia +7.5.  Oklahoma has an average PF of 43.4, West Virginia’s is 38.9.  By the way, the over/under is 63.5: how much offense do you expect?  I think both teams will hit 30, but you never know: it could be one of those weird games where both teams start off slow, but get going later.  Oklahoma is definitely the better team and has the benefit of a much better defense than West Virginia, but I’m thinking that West Virginia’s offense will be clicking in this game, so they should be able to keep up with the Sooners.

Prediction – Oklahoma defeats West Virgina – 38-28

Oklahoma Moneyline – Confidence 4/5
Oklahoma -7.5 Spread – Confidence 2/5

ORANGE BOWL: Kansas Jayhawks @ Virginia Tech Hokies -3.5

This is an interesting matchup between an explosive offense against an unrelenting defense.  Both teams should be able to get their share of points in this one.  The over/under is 53, so I think this one should hit the over.  Kansas has an average PF of 44.3 and Virginia Tech’s is 29.3.  Both teams average PA is pretty low though: 16.0 for Kansas, 15.5 for Virginia Tech.  Kansas’s 490 YPG is much better than Virginia Tech’s 332 YPG.  Kansas is an impressive 10-1 against the spread and Virginia Tech is 7-4 against the spread.  Kansas hasn’t had a very tough schedule though, so they haven’t been tested outside the Missouri game which they lost by 8.  Virginia Tech has beaten up solid teams like Boston College, Virginia, Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Clemson.  I think the Hokies win this one in convincing fashion.  When the Jayhawks have faced solid teams like Colorado and Texas Tech, the points for them come to a halt: 19 points in those games.

Prediction – Virgina Tech defeats Kansas 34-24

Virginia Tech Moneyline – Confidence 4/5
Virginia Tech -3.5 Spread – Confidence 4/5

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP: Ohio State Buckeyes vs. LSU Tigers -4

Remember how Ohio State got spanked in the BCS championship last year against Florida? I expect it to be the same story this year — and Ohio State was even favored in that game. The bottom line is that the SEC is a much better conference than the Big 10 and Ohio State hasn’t been tested this year.  The only tough game they’ve had this season was against Illinois and they lost that one.  I will give them a little credit for their wins against Penn State and Wisconsin though.  LSU has more speed on both sides of the ball with more playmakers. I’m excited to see how good these defensive studs (DT Dorsey of LSU and LB Laurinaitis of Ohio State) are.  They’re both top 10 picks in the 2008 NFL draft and there’s talk that Dorsey will go 1st to the Dolphins — what a perfect game to showcase his talent.  LSU averages 6 more points and 50 more yards of offense per game than Ohio State.  Ohio State’s defensive stats look pretty impressive, but again, I’m not impressed with the schedule they’ve had.  I think the Tigers win by 10.

Prediction – LSU defeats Ohio State – 31-21

LSU Moneyline – Confidence 4/5
LSU -4 Spread – Confidence 4/5

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