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Monday Night Football: Jets/Chargers Prediction & Pick Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on September 22nd, 2008 | Comment »

NFL Week 3 Recap:

It was a crazy week in the NFL. I wasn’t crazy about this week, so I should have taken it easy this week, but I was up big form the first two weeks and I thought I could get up even more. I was big on Denver because I liked their offense against a depleted New Orleans defense. The Broncos did their job on offense, but their defense just couldn’t stop Drew Brees. Although the Broncos won, they couldn’t cover. That once against confirms my belief that the Broncos are the worst team to bet on them. Whenever I bet against them, they win. Whenever I bet on them, they lose. I then missed out on my Patriots/Giants teaser. I was shocked to see how terrible the Patriots were. I figured that if they could hold the Jets to 10 points, there is no way the Dolphins could score more than that on them, especially considering their 12 PPG average, but they shocked everyone this week. I also figured that if the Dolphins gave up 361 yards and 3 TDs through the air to the Cardinals last week, certainly Randy Moss would have a monster game. Wrong again. Well, those two games hurt me big, but I had the Cowboys bail me out a little in the late game.

Monday Night Football Preview:

NEW YORK JETS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -8

I’m not impressed with the Jets at all. They come into San Diego with a 1-1 record. They looked decent in week 1, but it was against the 1-15 Dolphins, so let’s not go crazy over that game. They then lost at home to the Patriots in week 2, 19-10. They had problems stopping the run that game and they sucked offensively. Their offense ranks in the bottom in nearly every category: 27th in points, 25th in yards, 20th in passing yards, and 20th in rushing yards. Their defensive numbers are much better though: 7th in points allowed, 7th in yards allowed, 14th in passing yards allowed, and 6th in rushing yards allowed.

The Chargers offense has been phenomenal despite not being able to win games. They could easily be 2-0 right now, but you know, Jake Delhomme gets lucky on the last play of the game and they get screwed by a blown ref’s call — shit happens. They just have to go out and get a big win on Monday Night. The Chargers offense is ranked 3rd in points, 5th in yards, 3rd in passing yards, and 25th in rushing yards. The Chargers defensive numbers tell you a very different story about what you think the Chargers should be on defense. Their defense is 29th in points allowed, 31st in yards allowed, 31st against the pass, and 24th against the run.

I don’t like to base too much of my decision on these numbers alone because it was only 2 games and you have to take into consideration the strength of their opposition. Clearly, the Chargers have had a much tougher schedule with the Panthers and Broncos than the Jets, who’ve faced the Dolphins and Patriots.

After looking at the injury report, the only significant injuries to report are Lavernaneus Coles questionable with a thigh injury and LaDanian Tomlinson probable with toe injury.

I’m not thrilled with this spread, and have my doubts about the Chargers defense, but I definitely love what that offense has been able to do. The Chargers will get their points tonight, the only question is whether their defense will step up this week. The Chargers defense was 5th in points allowed and 14th in yards allowed last season. Will that defensive unit finally show up? This is a desperation game for the Chargers, so they will have the emotional edge tonight, especially at home on Monday Night, but Brett Favre also likes to play big in the lights. The betting public is split on this one: 52% is taking the Chargers -8 and 48% are taking the Jets +8. This is a tough one to call with the spread, so I think I’ll pass.

UPDATE: I’m feeling good about tonight, but I still don’t like the Chargers giving up 8. The Chargers should win this one, but I think it’ll be too tight to give up 8 points. I say it’s a back-and-forth game until the Jets run out of gas in the 4th and Rivers leads San Diego to a win late in the 4th. No, I’m not a psychic, this is merely a hunch. Personally, I’m going with a 7-point teaser: Chargers -1 and Over 39.5. I’ll try to get 3 units back. Rivers and Favre should be throwing touchdowns tonight and the Charger’s ain’t going 0-3 in their house on Monday Night.

Prediction — Chargers 28 – Jets 20

Pick Against the Spread: Chargers -8 — Confidence 2/5
Pick Straight Up: Chargers — Confidence 4/5



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