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NFL Week 5 Betting Reaction, Tonight’s Pick

Posted by in NFL Picks on September 29th, 2008 | Comment »

The Bills came through for me and beat the Rams 31-14. I was getting nervous when they were down 14-6, but they pulled through. As long as I hit that game, I was in good shape. I had 9 units on them since I bought a point to make it an even 7-point spread and that game and it earned me 7 units. The Broncos let me down again in what’s becoming an all too familiar story. I’m going to have to make a pledge to never bet on or against the Broncos because no matter which I side I take, then end up screwing me every time. I took their spread against the Chiefs and had them in my teaser card, but they lost the game. They turned the ball over 4 times and allowed Larry Johnson to run all over them. You just can’t do that.

Then the Eagles really ruined my day. Not only are they my team, but I had a lot of money riding on them and I was more than confident that they would win. They were 1 foot away from winning that game. 1 foot. Football is truly a game of inches. That game made me sick to my stomach. A muffed punt that led to a Chicago touchdown, 2 missed field goals, and being unable to get into the endzone twice after having a 1st down within the 5 yard line. It was a bad day to be an Eagles fan. You end up thinking nothing but what ifs for the next week: what if they had Westbrook that game, what if DeSean hadn’t fumbled that punt, what if McNabb wouldn’t have tripped at the goal line forcing the Eagles to settle for 3 instead of 7. It was just one of the worst ways to lose.

Tonight’s Pick: After getting roughed up by the Eagles and Broncos, I don’t want to go too crazy on tonight’s game because I’m not high on either team. Big thanks to the Bills for keeping me in the game. Last week’s Monday Night teaser worked out like a charm and that’s what I’m doing again tonight. The Ravens spread moved from +5 to +6 and the over/under is set low at 34.5. That’s not a lot of points. Tonight should be turnovers galore with the Ravens defense. I’m doing a teaser with the Ravens +13 and the Over 27.5. I’m only going 3 units. I just want to get a chunk back from what I should have had from the Eagles. I have learned not to underestimate home field advantage, but with that Ravens D and a banged up Ben, they should be safe if they’re getting 13 and 27 points isn’t much, that’s a 16-13 game.

After this pick I tallied up my record:

Week 5:
— Straight Up: 7-6
— Against the Spread: 6-7

Cumulative Record:
— Straight Up: 38-21 (.644)
— Against the Spread: 32-26-1 (.552)
My “Spreads to Take” Record Against the Spread: 12-9 (.571)
— Betting Units: +5

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