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NFL Week 5 Betting Reaction, Steelers/Jaguars Pick

Posted by in NFL Picks on October 5th, 2008 | 86 Comments

Apparently lightning could strike twice for the Dolphins, and it was against the Chargers of all teams. The Chargers just didn’t show up for that game at all. They looked like they were just going through the motions so they could get it over with. I didn’t see any of their 22 starters show up to play football. They plainly got beat by Miami. I couldn’t believe it. It looks like the Chargers aren’t that strong. At least the Bears came through for me and won the game in dominating fashion. I just wish I had the amounts of those bets the other way around.

Tonight I want to get some back and I don’t like the spread, which makes a teaser appealing. These Steelers/Jaguars games are usually tight and neither team usually loses by more than 10 (the point differential in these teams last 6 games: 2, 7, 9, 6, 1, 2), which is why I’m in favor of teasing the +5.5 Steelers to Steelers +12.5. I am hoping the spread may jump to -6, so I could take 13 points. The over/under is currently 37.5. I can see the final being right on target: 17-20, so teasing the over/under up or down should be safe either way you do it. Both teams have strong run defenses and the passing offense for both teams is pretty suspect. I could see a lot of punts in this one, but Santonio Holmes or MJD are always capable of breaking one. I think giving the Steelers double-digit points is safe despite being on the road. I think they have a better chance of covering the 5.5 than the Jaguars. You obviously have to be concerned about the lack of Steelers running backs, but I have some faith in Mewelde Moore. As long as the line protects Big Ben and he can spread it around, especially since the Jags are without Reggie Nelson, the Steelers should be in good shape. Plus, Moore does well catching out of the backfield. I don’t see the Jaguars offense doing too much against the Steelers and they’ve struggled this year as a whole. They nearly lost to the Texans at home last week and also lost at home against the Bills. Even if the Jaguars put up 21, as long as the Steelers can manage 10 points, they cover the 12.5 and the over 30.5. The Jaguars power rankings have them as a -3 favorite, so 5.5 is pretty generous, which makes +12.5 very good. The over is 6-2 ATS in the Steelers last 8 and the over is 9-2-1 in the Jaguars last 12 on grass. All of this is contingent on Ben Roethlisberger being able to give it a go. I also don’t think it’s a bad bed even if Leftwich has to go against his old team (maybe that’s a good thing and not a bad thing). Regardless of who takes the snaps under center, it should still be a tight game. Another key injury: Jacksonville S Reggie Nelson — this guy is a huge loss to the Jaguars secondary, that guys a ball hawk.

Tonight’s play: 7-point teaser – Steelers +12.5, Over 30.5. I’m still thinking about the Ben Roethlisberger’s status before making any moves. The way I see it, as long as the Steelers can score 10 points, this card will be looking really good. If they get 2 touchdowns, they can pretty much give up 24 points and we’re in good shape. Both teams are averaging 19 PPG. Pitt is allowing 14 PPG, Jacksonville is allowing 21 PPG.

Update: At least I had this pick turn my Sunday around. After being down from the Chargers pick, I wanted to get back in and once I thought about this teaser, I thought it was a great play to make so I decided to put 8 units to win 7, which made this week a positive week at +2. All I needed were 2 Steelers TDs and this ticket would be a sure winner. Well I got more than that and the over was already hit by halftime and I had more than enough points to feel comfortable throughout the game.



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