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Vegas Martin’s Week 7 College Football Picks Against the Spread

Posted by in College Football Picks on October 7th, 2008 | 93 Comments

I’m going to throw out some quick week 7 college picks against the spread (HOME TEAMS IN CAPS). I like the Vanderbilt and BYU picks the most and I would give some consideration to Kentucky.

Vanderbilt -3 OVER MISSISSIPPI STATE

I like this game a lot. Vanderbilt is rolling with their 5-0 record and they’re 5-0 ATS to boot. Mississippi State is a dismal 1-4 (2-2 ATS) with their sole win over Southeastern Louisiana. They were manhandeled by Georgia Tech, but in their defense, they hung with LSU losing that one by a score of 34-24. Vandy has impressive wins over Auburn, Ole Miss, and South Carolina. Vanderbilt is also manufacturing turnovers. Their 26.6 PPG is better than Miss St.’s 16.2 and Vandy is only allowing 16.2 PPG compared to Miss. St.’s 21.4.

KENTUCKY -1 OVER South Carolina

This should be a good one. Kentrucky is 4-1 and S. Carolina is 4-2. Kentucky is scoring more points than the Game Cocks, are allowing less points, and have the advantage being at home. Kentucky is 3-0 at home this year (albiet, against teams they should crush) compared to S. Carolina’s 1-1 road record. S. Carolina dropped one last week to Ole Miss, while Kentucky lost by only 3 on the road to an outstanding Alabama team.

Iowa -5 OVER INDIANA

Indiana doesn’t play much defense and Iowa does. Iowa’s dropped 3 straight, but they’ve faced very good teams (Michigan State, Northwester, Pittsburgh). Indiana lost by 13 to Michigan State at home, 42-29. Iowa lost to MSU on the road 16-13. They held a team with a Heisman hopeful RB to 16 points: that’s very good. I like Iowa’s defense to dominate this game and Indiana’s defense should give up points.

LSU +6 OVER FLORIDA (HOME)

Florida already had a home led down against Mississippi. In a tough SEC battle to remain on top of that conference, I have more faith in LSU, even being on the road. They have better coaching, a better defense, and both offenses are pretty even. Take advantage of the Tim Tebow hype and take the points. LSU will come up with their best game plan for Tebow and I think they should win this one outright, but the points always provide some cushioning.

BYU -23.5 OVER New Mexico

BYU’s offense is rolling especially at home. In their last 2 home games, 103 points scored, 0 points allowed. That’s right, they beat UCLA 44-0 and Wyoming 59-0. New Mexico got killed by Tulsa on the road 56-14 and they’re allowing 27 PPG (mostly to below average teams). I like BYU to win in a blowout.

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93 Responses to Vegas Martin’s Week 7 College Football Picks Against the Spread:

  1. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 08, 2008 at 10:12 am

    Here is Brandon’s 2 cents on these picks:

    1. Vandy vs. Miss. St.: This game actually fits my system as Vandy’s home field is different than Miss St., however through my studies Miss St. rarely covers as a home dog, they lose much more often than they win as a home dogs so I stay away from Miss. St. This line seems suspcious to me though. Vandy is 5-0 and Miss. St. is 1-4, why only 3 points? Just seems to good to be true so I am skeptical. I would go with Vandy if forced to pick, and I think Vandy is clearly playing better.

    2. SC vs. Kentucky: Like I said last week I think SC is highly overrated and Kentucky is likely under rated. I do like Kentucky, but I don’t see them blowing SC out.

    3. Iowa at Indiana: This game fits the system as well and I have already taken Indiana even though I agree that Iowa is a better team. This is Iowa’s third straight road game I believe. I think this game is going to be much closer than expected. However, Iowa is due for a win and IU’s D is weak.

    4. LSU at Florida: Figure this one, Vandy only 3 point fav over weak Miss St., but Florida a strong fav. over LSU???? I think anyone is crazy to take Florida in this one. LSU’s QB is questionable, but they had the week off last week so I think LSU is definetly a play.

    5. It is a lot of points for BYU, but they can score at will. I like them even though BYU’s QB threw 2 or 3 ints last week.

  2. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 10, 2008 at 10:11 am

    I figured out the only reason the Vanderbilt spread is so low is because they may without their starting QB. The following is from ESPN.com:

    Last weekend, quarterback Chris Nickson aggravated a right shoulder injury from a Sept. 20 win at Mississippi, but Mackenzi Adams stepped in and completed 13 of 23 passes for 153 yards and two touchdowns. The yardage and scoring totals were the highest for either quarterback this season.

    I still like Vandy regardless of who has to step in there as QB.

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