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My NFL Week 6 Bets

Posted by in NFL General on October 12th, 2008 | Comment »

There are a bunch of games worth looking at this week, but it was tough to decide to pick which one. I was thinking of going against the grain and instead of giving up points, try to go with an underdog and take the points. I thought about taking the Ravens +4.5. As much as I think the Ravens D that will dominate an offense that is out of rhythm, I don’t want to bet on against the Colts at home. Dolphins +3 was another option, but I just have a feeling that the Texans are due for a win. Then I looked at which games would be safe to give up the points on. Redskins over the Rams, Vikings over the Lions, and Giants over the Browns are all obvious winners, but with spreads like 13.5, I’ll pass. How many times do you hear “the disparity between the teams in the NFL is so small.” Exactly, I don’t want to lay down 13.5 to any team although betting against the Lions and Rams seems like a good strategy based on how horrible they are.

If you took the Jets -6 early, good news for you: Carson Palmer is OUT this week, which caused the spread to move to Jets -9.5.

I decided to go with Bears -3 over the Falcons for 10 units, which is my big game of the week. The Bears defense is playing outstanding and the Bears offense has been rolling. Matt Forte is a stud at RB and even Kyle Orton is making plays each week. Not only do the Bears have a running game, but Kyle Orton has been outstanding this year. He has an 87 passer rating and is having a better season than Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger at this point. A lot of people gave the Falcons a lot of credit for their upset in Green Bay last week, but I’m not buying the hype because the Packers were without 3 starters in their secondary. They’re were missing CB Al Harris and both safeties. Any team could have passed on the Packers last week. Plus, Roddy White is questionable this week with a head injury. If he’s ruled out, I would be very confident in the Bears.  Bears defense – 8th.  Falcons defense – 23rd.  Bears offense – 12th.  Falcons offense – 8th.  However, that’s in terms of yardage.  The Bears score more points than the Falcons and the Falcons have had a very weak schedule.  When the Falcons have faced good defense like the Bucs and Panthers, they’ve been held to 9 points.  I expect the Falcons points to be in that 9-13 range, and not more than 17.  The Bears should be able to put up 20 against this poor Falcons D.

I went with a 1 unit underdog parlay: Ravens moneyline and Dolphins moneyline. That pays 5:1.

I also did a 2 unit 9-team teaser that pays 12:1. Here’s my card: Bears +4, Jets +1, Dolphins +10, Ravens +11.5, Giants -2, Broncos +3.5, Vikings -6.5, Redskins -6.5, and Saints -1. I think it has a very good chance of hitting and for a card that pays 12:1, it’s worth a shot.

As always, please use your own judgment this week and good luck!

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