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NFL Week 11 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on November 11th, 2008 | 269 Comments

NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -3.5

I don’t see the Pats scoring much on a pretty good Jets defense. I would take the points. 3.5 is pretty favorable for this game.

DENVER BRONCOS @ ATLANTA FALCONS -6

The Falcons have been on a tear. They have both the passing and running game running on all cylinders and beat the Saints last week 34-20. There defense is pretty good to boot. You can count on the Denver defense giving up a ton of points, but their offense should be able to score points too. The over/under is 51.5 and that’s right on point. This one should see lots of points by both teams, but with the defensive edge going to the Falcons at home, I think they’ll cover.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS -10.5

Last week the Dolphins came out as 9 point favorites and couldn’t cover against the Seahawks. There’s no way I’m laying down 10.5 on the Dolphins and there’s no way I’m taking the Raiders either. Pass on this one.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ NEW YORK GIANTS -6.5

With the exception of the Browns game, the Giants have been unstoppable. They clearly have the best offensive line in football. The Ravens are still without their top corner Chris McAllister, so that Giants passing game will get the Giants through this game even if the Ravens are able to stop the run. With McAllister out, the Ravens pass D has slid from #1 to #9. This one could be a close one, so I’m not crazy about the spread. The Ravens running game is the key to that offense and the Giants are averaging less than 90 yards allowed per game on the ground.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -8.5

One of my betting rules is to never take the Colts against the Texans. The Texans always play the Colts tough and more often than not they end up covering. The Colts of coming off an impressive come from behind win over the Steelers and Manning is finally getting it together. The Texans just got dismantled by the Ravens. The return of Bob Sanders also helps that defense tremendously. I like the Colts to win this one, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Texans cover.

TENNESSEE TITANS -3 @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

I would keep riding the Titans although you have to think that they’re “due for a loss.” The Bears proved that if you stack 8 in the box to try to stop that potent running game, Kerry Collins will pass all over you. The Jaguars offense doesn’t do anything to scare me and the Titans have one of the best defenses in the league. Take the Titans.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -9 @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

As an Eagles fan I naturally like the Eagles to destroy the Bengals. If Carson Palmer remains out, which is likely, this should be an ass kicking. Don’t count on the Bengals offense (31st in points, 32nd in yards) doing anything against the Eagles defense.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -5.5 @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

With the Chiefs giving up over 400 yards of offense and 27 points per game, I’m confident the Saints will have their way with them offensively. With the Chiefs horrible offense, I don’t see them keeping up. I like the Saints a lot in this one.

DETROIT LIONS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS -14

I see a blow out. Jonathan Stewart. Steve Smith. Forget about it. The Lions won’t do anything against a defense that’s allowing only 14.8 points per game and 8th in yards allowed. 38-10.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -3.5

I like the Bucs at home off the bye week. This one will be tight throughout. This is one of those games that will likely come down to whichever team has less turnovers. Should be defensive tussle. Not a great game to bet on.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS -6.5

Solid showing by the 49ers on Monday Night in Arizona, but they came up 2 yards short. What’s up with all the these teams getting stuffed at the goal line this year? No coach in the NFL wants to pass in those situations. I just don’t get it. I was stupid last week and forget to check the injury report for the Rams before deciding to take them and didn’t realize that Steven Jackson was out. He’s still day to day. This is another game I would pass on, but if I had to choose, I would take the Niners.

ARIZONA CARDINALS -3 @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Matt Hasselbeck should be back this week, but nothing about the Seahawks impresses me. They are pretty bad on both sides of the ball. I like the Cardinals in this one.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS -4.5

So Ben Roethlisberger gave the game away last week to the Colts and the Chargers nearly lost to the Chiefs at home. I don’t know what the Chargers deal is, but they’re just not playing good football, especially on the road, and especially when they have to travel to the east coast… once again. Luckily for them, this one will be played at 4:00. I’ll take the Steelers at home.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ BUFFALO BILLS -5

Brady Quinn looked sharp in his debut, but unfortunately, the Browns defense couldn’t get him the win as they allowed Broncos to put up 34 on them. After a strong start to the season, the Bills sort of dissappeared and just don’t look like the team that started 4-0. They’re 1-4 in their last 5. This one is a toss up, but the Bills have a huge advantage at home on Monday Night and they almost upset Dallas last year when they played on Monday Night. The loss of DE Aaron Schobel has really hurt the Bills too. I think this one will be back and forth. With the Browns defense being a huge liability, I’ll take the Bills for the sake of picking the game, but I’m not crazy about the spread.

BOTTOM LINE:

My favorite spreads this week are Titans -3 , Cardinals -3, Panthers -14, Saints -5.5, and Eagles -9.

Good luck this week!



269 Responses to NFL Week 11 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread:

  1. NJ

    Date: Nov 12, 2008 at 12:56 pm

    You forgot the Skins’ Boys’ Game. What do you think?

  2. Vegas Martin

    Date: Nov 12, 2008 at 2:29 pm

    My sportsbook didn’t have the line up when I did the write up. I would pass on the game. Romo should be returning, but they’ll be in Washington, and we know what happened last game. The Cowboys/Skins game is a toss up. There are better games to pick.

  3. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Nov 12, 2008 at 4:17 pm

    Why all the hate for the Seahawks? They have played many close games and have even covered several games in which they should not have even been competitive. What did Arizona do against the lowly 49ers that impressed you?

  4. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Nov 12, 2008 at 4:23 pm

    I am thinking about a 7 point teaser including the following teams: Atlanta, Miami, Saints, Colts, Titans, and Steelers. What you think?

  5. Vegas Martin

    Date: Nov 12, 2008 at 4:25 pm

    The Eagles would have SHUT OUT the Seahawks if it wasn’t for a lucky 90-yard reception on the Seahawks first drive. The Seahawks had about 10 3-and-outs in that game. They were clobbered by the Bucs. The were beat by the Dolphins early, but they mustered enough offense in the 2nd half to cover. They’re still only 4-5 ATS.

    What impresses me about the Cardinals? How about Kurt Warner’s MVP-caliber season? Or his 350 yards, 3 TDs against the 49ers? Or the fact that they’ve scored more than 28 points in their last 5/6 games. Their only loss in their last 5 games is by 4 to a pretty good Panthers team.

    I would take the Cardinals at -6.5, I love them -3.

  6. Vegas Martin

    Date: Nov 12, 2008 at 4:26 pm

    You hit the nail on the head. I did a teaser too with all of those teams! I also threw in Cardinals +4, Jets +10.5, and Saints +1.5.

  7. NJ

    Date: Nov 12, 2008 at 8:52 pm

    I gotchya, the Skins/Cowboys game is always a huge tossup as both teams play with extra intensity. I’m just a huge Redskins fan so I appreciate reading previews about the Skins winning :) FWIW, I’ll be there!

  8. John

    Date: Nov 13, 2008 at 2:09 am

    lucky 7 parlay…..

    11/15/08 Indiana +36 at psu
    12:00 ET
    11/15/08 OhioState -9.5 at illini
    12:00 ET
    11/15/08 Texas -13 at kansas
    12:30 ET
    11/15/08 IowaState +27.5 vs. mizzou
    18:30 ET
    *********************************************
    11/16/08 Atlanta(Falcons) -6
    13:00 ET
    11/16/08 NewYork(Giants) -6.5
    13:00 ET
    11/16/08 Philadelphia(Eagles) -9
    13:00 ET

  9. Troy B

    Date: Nov 13, 2008 at 7:06 am

    My card is showing Dallas @ Washington +3 and Chicago @ Green Bay -6 any advise on these games?

  10. Troy B

    Date: Nov 13, 2008 at 8:31 am

    John, please share your thoughts on your Indiana and Iowa State picks

  11. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Nov 13, 2008 at 9:00 am

    I love that Indiana pick. PSU is coming off a tough loss so I don’t think they will bring their A game. Indiana has played better as of late and while they won’t win, they should keep it within that spread.

  12. John

    Date: Nov 14, 2008 at 1:08 am

    Hey guys…
    I figure that psu is coming off a tough loss and won’t be completely focused…36 points is a lot to cover, and the game is at indiana……..
    As for the iowa st pick, missou hasn’t covered its last two spreads against baylor and kstate(both were in midtwenties), and the game is at iowa st, forecast is cold/windy, possibly snow shower… i don’t see missou putting up that many points and with iowa st at home i think they will keep it close, i see worst case missou 35-14….

  13. John

    Date: Nov 14, 2008 at 1:10 am

    Troy B – i would take the bears +6, orton should play and the bears will come ready…

    as far as dallas/washington … I would stay away from that game, too many questions… will romo come out ready? which dallas D will show up?, etc…

  14. Troy B

    Date: Nov 14, 2008 at 7:30 am

    ok here is my 10 teams , comments welcome

    texas -13.5
    byu -4.5
    tulsa -5.5
    south flordia -7.5
    balt / ny giants over 41.5
    jacksonville +3
    chicago +6
    san fran -6.5
    st.louis / san fran under 44.5

  15. Troy B

    Date: Nov 14, 2008 at 8:10 am

    This is a $20.00 10 teamer for $5000.00, god knows i need a big win …hahaha !!!

  16. John

    Date: Nov 14, 2008 at 12:03 pm

    i like it, except for jax +3…..unless they got back on track last week and can put down the titans…

    also not too confident about the byu and south florida lines, but anything can happen….good luck to everyone!!

  17. Troy B

    Date: Nov 16, 2008 at 10:58 am

    wowwwwww !!! what happened to my bulls from south flordia………not even a game !!! good call John…….

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